Month: June 2016

Significant this week was the vote by Great Britain to leave the European Union. Sure wish I had purchased some puts on the British Pound or maybe the ETF UVXY (it was up 43% on Friday). For a long time I have felt that the EU is in a recession and I think this vote increases the length or depth of the recession. I can understand that the British had some resentment when the EU told them they had to get rid of their tea pots because the pots used too much energy.

Returns for the month of May were mostly positive.
In May IRA#1 -7%, IRA#2 -1%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS 2%, QQQ 4%, SPY/RSP 1%, DWTR 1%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 16%, IRS#2 4%, PDPetc 4%, QQQ 5%, SPY/RSP 6%, DWTR 2%.
May portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – Sold FSAGX 5/23, Purchased FSMEX 5/31 – Invested in FSMEX
IRA#2 – Sold FSAGX 5/23, Purchased FSMEX 5/31 – Invested in FIUIX, FJSCX, FRESX, FSMEX, FDRXX
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – None – Invested in PDP, PIE, PIZ
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – None – Invested in RSP
DWTR – None – Invested in DWTR

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse was “Uptrend under pressure” from of 06/14/16 until 6/22/16. On 06/23/16 it changed to “Uptrend Resumes”. On 06/24/16 it changed back to “Uptrend under pressure” after the Nasdaq lost 4.1%, the S&P500 lost 3.6% and the DJIA lost 3.4%. Not a time to buy. My feeling is that next week the market will bounce up before the decline continues. Doug Casey of Casey Research thinks the next president will have the privile
ge of trying to fix the coming depression.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 38.37, a sell price of 37.29, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 125.91)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 25.12, a sell price 23.96, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.97)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 43.41, a sell price 41.36, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.27, a sell price 13.82, a rank of 18, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 57.84)
SGold has a price of 24.59, a sell price 23.36, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX current stoploss 34.90)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Martin D Weiss, founder of Weiss Research, sent me a “Money and Markets: Investing Insights” email which laid out some of the challenges the next president will have. 1. U.S. Commercial Real Estate debt has increased so much that the current bubble is higher than the 2007/8 bubble by 17%. 2. U.S Automobile Industry has 31% of the auto borrowers owing more than the auto is worth – a record, and 29% of auto loans are 6 or greater years – a record. 3. Sinking Global Economy reported by the International Monetary fund as “Global Economy Faltering from Too Slow Growth for Too Long.” 4. No More Weapons are available to the Federal Reserve. With the federal funds rate at 1/4% a cut will do little (but they could try negative interest rates – you pay the bank to let keep a bank account) and printing money (qualitative easing) which has run into the law of diminishing returns thus becoming ineffective. Weiss’s advice “Prepare yourself ahead of time for economic disasters in the pipeline.”

Significent next week is the vote by Great Britain to stay or leave the European Union. There are many predictions as to what the market may do as a result of this vote. An interesting article on the EU impact on GB is reported in this article from 9 years ago. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-426827/What-Britain-HADNT-joined-EU.html

Fidelity took their Spartan Funds – generally index funds with low fees – which previously required a higher initial investment, renamed them, and split up the renamed funds into an “investor class” – 2.5k initial investment & management fees of 0.9% – and “premium class” – 10k initial investment and management fees of 0.5% . I think it is an effort by Fidelity to create low cost index funds to beat Vanguard and ETFs in the index fund game. Fidelity funds still retain the short term trading penalty, the buy and sell only at market close limitations, and no stoploss orders – ETFs do not have those restrictions. The big problem I have with most funds is that their prospectus requires them to be fully invested at all times. The S&P500 went down 47% in the 08/09 crash.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 06/14/16. Not a time to buy.
Each evening I try to listed to Investors Edge with Gary Kaltbaum. On Tuesday he had an interview with Jim Rohrback whose website is www.investment-models.com. Jim is either always invested or not invested in the market. He uses an evaluation of the NYSE index and the Nasdaq index. In this interview he said his Nasdaq just turned to a sell and the NYSE while negative was not a sell yet. You can get a free copy of his report by sending an email to Jim@rixindex.com requesting a copy. There is an interesting article called “Big Names Bailing” at http://dollarcollapse.com/stock-prices/big-names-bailing/ .

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 38.47, a sell price of 37.29, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 125.80)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 25.22, a sell price 23.96, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.97)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 43.54, a sell price 41.36, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.27, a sell price 13.82, a rank of 27, and is a hold until it becomes a sell or another fund becomes a buy. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 57.84)
SGold has a price of 23.55, a sell price 22.37, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX current stoploss 34.12)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Doug Fabian had an interesting podcast. He provided some of the concerns about the market trend and pointed out the market is about the same as it was a year ago, close to an all time high. One of the items presents is the analysis that if stocks are higher or the same, Clinton is the next president. If stocks are down 10% then Trump is the next president. Another subject is the discussion of “bail ins”. That happened a couple of years ago in Crete – any large bank account lost 50% to the bank. It is worth a listen.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 05/24/16. Time to buy. The distribution days are climbing for both the Nasdaq and S&P500. Distribution days are down days with increased volume, which are an indication of institutional selling and is a concern.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 39.25, a sell price of 37.29, a rand of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 125.80)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 25.10, a sell price 23.85, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.97)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.87, a sell price 40.75, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.54, a sell price 13.82, a rank of 16, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 57.84)
SGold has a price of 23.61, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – GLDX)
So if I had not sold SGold a couple of weeks ago I would be up about 8% from that sell price.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – invest 20% in SGold.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Jim Rogers on why the dollar is the best investment in the world – it takes a little time to load the 2 minute video.
http://jimrogers1.blogspot.com/2016/06/jim-rogers-100-probability-of-us.html

On 05/23 I sold SGold (FSAGX) for a gain of 15.7%. Sort of amazing for a 77 day investment. At the same time I purchased an ETF – GLDX – and sold it 8 days later after it dropped by 7% for a total loss of 7.83%. My error was not buying it again when it SGold was still a buy. However if gold continues up like it did this week, I’ll probably be buying it next weekend.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 05/24/16. Time to buy. However the sum of all the mutual fund deviations is down and the first mutual fund which has two weeks in a row of improving deviations is ranked 82 (SHealthCare).

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 38.51, a sell price of 36.58, a rank of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 123.88)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 25.07, a sell price 23.82, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.56)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.89, a sell price 40.75, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.55, a sell price 13.82, a rank of 19, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.83)
RealEstatePortfolio had a distribution of $0.174.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested