Month: May 2016

The podcasts I listen to are mostly cautiously positive. The podcast from Dorsey Wright is concerned that most of the larger capitalization stocks are doing well while the smaller capitalization stocks are not.
Wealthsteading podcast presented a “landmine” portfolio on 25May – investing 30% but being ready for problems.

I was talking with a friend the other day who was concerned about the market. I suggested I did not know if it was going up or down, but figured the probable direction was down. She asked how are you going to protect yourself. I replied “Sell” and from the look on her face, you would have thought I had used one of those less than nice 4 letter words.

Since it is Memorial day when we honor those who died for our great country, I suggest you listen for 13 minutes to John Pugliano’s 29May presentation “Was America ever great?” at http://www.wealthsteading.com/187/. He plays a recording made by a Canadian in 1973 which can also be found at http://america.our.home.power-of-love.net/sinclair.html

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 05/24/16. Time to buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 37.90, a sell price of TBD, a rand of 02, and is a buy. (ETF – IHI)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.62, a sell price 23.39, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.13)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.75, a sell price 41.67, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.28, a sell price 13.70, a rank of 42, and is a hold until there is something better to buy and I am fully invested. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.73)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Invest 100% in SMedicalEquipment&Systems
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in SMedicalEquipment&Systems

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

Dollarcollapse.com on their web site had an interesting presentation on May 12, called “Chaos Spreads to US Retailers and Italian Banks.” He discuses the fact that the US government which is really being run and screwed up by the military industrial complex, wall street banks, and career regulators who actually work for the companies they are supposed to be regulating. Since we have borrowed more than we can ever pay off, as has the rest of the world, we will have to have an epic massive currency devaluation. Therefore it does not matter who becomes president – the outsider or the wall street representative. Since he feels chaos is coming, he suggests precious metals, farmland, carefully selected real estate, and possibly energy as investments.
John Burbank, founder of Passport Capital, manages about 4.1B of investments. He was interviewed on Wall Street Week tonight. He has three risks for investments in the rest of the year: 1. The US in entering a recession with a 66% percent probability, 2. China has to recapitalize its banks which have significant non performing loans, 3. Donald Trump will win the election which is feared by foreigners and thus may result in a disruption the markets. He feels dividend paying, consumer staples, and gold stocks offer the best investments now.

Next weekend I will be out of town until later Sunday and will update this as soon as I can. The following day, Monday, is Memorial day and the market is closed.

As I have previously mentioned before John Pugliano in his Wealthsteading podcast on 19Mar emphasized using the S&P500 100 day moveing average. SPY which is an ETF which matches the S&P500 is at 205.49 and the 100 day moving average 199.08. His indicator would say it is time to remain invested.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 04/21/16. Not a time to buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 21.89, a sell price of 22.13, a rank of 01, and is a Sell.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.33, a sell price 23.35, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.13)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.01, a sell price 41.67, a rank of 11, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.21, a sell price 13.70, a rank of 17, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.73)
I do not have a clue if SGold is going to go up next week, down, or stay the same. Howevery it has lost enough from its previous weekly close I am selling. I can always invest in it again if it looks like a buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell SGold
IRA #2 – Sell SGold

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

Returns for the month of May were mostly positive. I haven’t reported these numbers for a month or two because for most of January and February I was not invested.
The S&P500 was up 0.27% in May and up 6.45% over the last 3 months.
In May IRA#1 24%, IRA#2 3%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS -1%, QQQ -4%, SPY/RSP 1%, DWTR 0%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 24%, IRS#2 5%, PDPetc 3%, QQQ 1%, SPY/RSP 5%, DWTR 1%.
May portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None – Invested in FSAGX
IRA#2 – Purchased FSJCX 04/18 – Invested in FIUIX, FJSCX, FRESX, FSAGX, FDRXX
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – None – Invested in PDP, PIE, PIZ
QQQ – None – Invested in QQQ
SPY/RSP – None – Invested in RSP
DWTR – None – Invested in DWTR

Last week I mention Jeffery Gundlach who was the guest on Wall Street Week. On 13May he said, “I’m sticking with my ‘2% upside and 20% downside’ prediction on U.S. stocks. It’s working. I can see it going to 1,600.” The whole interview report is on thinkadvisor.com. The S&P500 is currently 2046.61.

As I have previously mentioned before John Pugliano in his Wealthsteading podcast on 19Mar emphasized using the S&P500 100 day moveing average. SPY which is an ETF which matches the S&P500 is at 204.76 and the 100 day moving average 199.71 His indicator would say it is time to remain invested.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 04/21/16. Not a time to buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 22.50, a sell price of 22.13, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.58, a sell price 23.25, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 24.13)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 43.13, a sell price 41.67, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 62.47)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.27, a sell price 13.70, a rank of 11, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.73)
In reviewing the numbers this week I found an error I made on the quote for SGold on 4/29. I had a closing price of 23.69 and it should have been 23.29. This resulted in a minor decline in its percent deviation since then and a more important change in its sell price. I recalculated the sale price after fixing the error.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – No Change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

So the question is, “Why did the head of the Federal Reserve Board have a couple of special meetings with the President?” Listening to the speculation there ware two main theories presented.
1. Saudi Arabia (SA) is so upset with the US that if the US releases the 28 classified pages of the 9/11 report or allows 9/11 victim’s families to sue SA, they will sell all $750B of their US bond holdings and remove any financial deposits in the US causing significant distress in the US financial markets. The speculation is that Bush classified those 28 pages because they showed SA was clearly responsible for 9/11 planning, funding, and execution.
2. Leading indicators indicate the 2nd quarter Gross Domestic Product released in July, will show a negative number and the revisions to previous quarters will show the same. The result is that after the release the criteria for declaring a recession will have been met. No in power political party wants a recession just before elections.

As I have previously mentioned before John Pugliano in his Wealthsteading podcast on 19Mar emphasized using the S&P500 100 day moving average. SPY which is an ETF which matches the S&P500 is at 205.67 and the 100 day moving average 199.47. His indicator would say it is time to remain invested.

Tonight Wall Street Week featured Jeffery Gundlach of DoubleLine Capital. Last month his funds, mostly bond funds, had an inflow of cash of over 1b dollars. He indicated that when economies are slowing down, most stock markets around the world are down, and the US stock market is within a percent or two from its all time high, having gone sidewise for 18 months, it is time to sell.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 04/21/16. Not a time to buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 22.69, a sell price of 22.51, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.50, a sell price 23.28, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.69)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 43.86, a sell price 41.67, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 61.36)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.25, a sell price 13.70, a rank of 13, and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.73)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – No Change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested