Month: April 2016

So my latest investment was in JapanSamllerCompanies and as it turns out the Bank of Japan (BOJ), the federal reserve bank of Japan, also likes Japanese stocks. The BOJ is one the top 10 holders of NKY, the ETF which matches the Nikkei 225 index and thus contains some shares of every stock in the index. The BOJ also owns about 35% of the bonds issued by Japan. Our Federal board owns about 25% of our bonds and an unknown amount of stock – we can’t audit them without a law change. China and other countries are doing the same. So how much of the market gains are just the government buying stock to make investors and voters feel good? If you hold when the market falls, you will lose money, the government will lose money, and maybe taxes will have to go up to recover some of the losses.

Non US investments seem to be doing the best. Perhaps that is because the US Dollar is declining. Over the last 100 trading days, the dollar is down 6% (the ETF is UUP). Seven of the top 20 funds are non US investments. The declining dollar is one of the reasons gold is going up. Gold is doing absolutely great – I do not ever remember seeing a percent deviation of over 40. While that is an indication of how great gold is doing, it is also an indication of how over bought gold is. In the past I felt that when the market went down, gold was a great place to be. I was wrong. When markets go down and investors start selling, they eventually sell everything so please watch your investments carefully

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 04/21/16. Not a time to buy.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 23.69, a sell price of 22.51, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.39, a sell price 23.22, a rank of 08, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.69)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 41.72, a sell price 40.86, a rank of 21, and is a hold until there is something better to buy. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 61.36)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 14.09, a sell price 13.70, a rank of 07 and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.73)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – No Change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

This is late because I have out of town. I could not find an Investors Business Daily newspaper this weekend anywhere in Cozumel.
If you have the time, I strongly suggest you listen to www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsido-UDzFw. The show covers a lot of shortcomings government is doing and the potential future financial impact.
Another website to visit is wealthtrack.com and listen to or watch the 01Apr16 show. Mr. LaPerriere feels the stock market will plummet if Trump or Sanders win the presidency. I think the market will plummet regardless of who wins.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” as of 04/21/16. Not a time to buy. Perhaps is is time for “sell in May and go away”. May through October, on average, is the worst 6 months of the year. November through April is, on average, the best 6 months of the year. Also to consider is the 4 year cycle. The first year of each presidential 4 year term is, on average, the worst.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 20.98, a sell price of 19.93, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.00, a sell price 23.22, a rank of 17, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.69)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.65, a sell price 40.86, a rank of 21, and is a hold until there is something better to buy. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 61.36)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price fo 14.40, a sell price 40.86, a rank of 16 and is a hold. (ETF – SCJ current stoploss 56.73)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – No Change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

An interesting view of the market is http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Market-Cap-to-GDP . The highest peak was back in 2000, then a lower peak in 2008, and today’s peak is the second highest.
A look at the gaining Fidelity funds indicate emerging markets, Canada, LatinAmerica and Asia countries are going up (or maybe the dollar is going down)?
Two other items – 1. This note is short since I am still working 70+ hour per week. 2. Please watch the funds closely, I am planning to be away from my computer next week – thus no weekly report until I return later in the week.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 04/13/16. Time to buy. So Monday Fidelity published the correct distribution numbers for last Friday. Not many changes but there were some. It would be nice to have Fidelity get it right. This week the Friday distributions were published – they got it right.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 20.61, a sell price of 19.58, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.24, a sell price 23.22, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.69)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.65, a sell price 40.86, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 61.36)
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price fo 14.42, a sell price TBD, a rank of 07 and is a buy. (ETF – SCJ)
The number 4, 5 and 6 funds have not had an improving deviation for the last two weeks. 

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – Purchase 20% JapanSmallerCompanies

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 –  100% invested
IRA #2 –  80% invested

Interesting article on the financial education of football players. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-nfl-training-camp-turns-football-players-into-financial-stars-2016-04-06

A classic sign of a bear market is a chart pattern of descending highs. Look at the Nasdaq, S&P500, NYSE or any major index and notice a high was made in about May last year. Then another lower high in December last year. Now the latest high in April. The lows between those highs are also descending. Not a good sign.

In his podcast on 01Apr, Doug Fabian indicated he felt the bull market would continue and he really liked gold. On his daily radio show and podcast Gary Kaultbaum feels the actions of the banking sector are similar to their actions in 2008 where they led the market down. On my list of 130 Fidelity funds, SBanking is 127.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under presure” as of 04/07/16. Not a time to buy. This week’s Fidelity numbers are slightly questionable. Like too many times in the past, Fidelity’s list of fund distributions contained no current data, and yet the list of daily fund prices indicated 28 funds had distribution. Going into 28 different funds to search for distributions takes too much time. So the numbers are close but next week’s numbers will include the correct distributions. Yes I called Fidelity about this (again, again, etc.).

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 20.15, a sell price of 19.14, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.08, a sell price 23.22, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.69)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 42.67, a sell price 40.86, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 61.36)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – No Change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

Last week I mentioned a podcast by John Publiano where he stressed using the 100 day moving average to measure the market trend. At this time SPY (the S&P500 ETF) is 4.3% above its 100 day moving average, 3.9% above its 200 day moving, and 6.1% above its 50 day moving average. All is looking good.
It is especially helpful that the chair woman of the Federal Reserve Board came out this week and said easy money would continue. There is also an interesting article on how she stopped the market decline in February. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-01/inside-janet-yellens-diary-stunning-discovery-two-phone-calls-saved-world It is interesting how Goldman Sacks former (and maybe current) employees run the federal banks of the western world. Obviously the world bankers are watching the market.
 
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend ” as of 02/17/16. Time to buy. Except none of the top 20 funds have an improving deviation, one of my requirements to buy, so I am buying nothing.

My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SGold has a price of 19.07, a sell price of 18.53, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 24.57, a sell price 23.34, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 23.69)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 43.01, a sell price 40.86, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 61.36)

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – No Change
IRA #2 – No Change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 –  100% invested
IRA #2 –  60% invested