Month: June 2015

Returns for the month of May were ok.
In May IRA#1 +1.4%, IRA#2 +4%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS +1%, TQQQ 0%, TQQQ/SQQQ -7%, Power4 +2%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 +6%, IRS#2 +5%, PDPetc -0%, TQQQ -20%, TQQQ/SQQQ -25%, Power4 +0%.
May portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None.
IRA#2 – Sold SRetailing and Purchased SBiotechnology on 05/26.
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – None.
TQQQ – None.
TQQQ/SQQQ – Purchased 2QQQ on 05/07, sold SQQQ on 05/18.
Power4 – None.
Starting 01Jul, I am changing my TQQQ to just QQQ and investing exactly the way IBD instructs. I am changing the TQQQ/SQQQ to just investing in SPY (S&P500 – capitalization weighted) and RSP (S&P500 – equal weighted). I will update my web site soon.

Last week my loss limitation rules caused me to sell China Region. It recovered slightly and then declined a little more during the week and is now slightly lower than last week.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend under pressure” – Not a time to invest. The S&P500 has a distribution count of 8 and the Nasdaq has a distribution count of 6. It is too risky time for me to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 24.07, a sell price 22.87, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 240.29 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 83.34, a sell price 83.69, a rank of 58, and is a Sell.
SBiotechnology has a price of 271.55, a sell price 259.98, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SElectronics

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

The Follow The Money weekly podcast on 19May featured Mebane T Fabar of Cambria Investment Management. He discussed a research report he wrote a couple of year ago titled Relative Strength Strategies for Investing. He goes back to the 20s using the momentum of various industry groups which beats buy and hold by about 70%. His study is similar to the Power 4 investing based on DWA momentum ETFs I mentioned in my note some time ago. The major difference is that Fabar uses the industry groups ETFs. and suggests the top 1, 2, or 3 ETFs. Fabar also has an ETF, GMOM, which invests in 1/3 of the top 50 ETFs based on momentun and trend. It is not a year old, but might be good to follow. 
Another interesting podcast is from Wall Street Unplugged and on June 10, episode 318, featured “What the End of the World Looks Like” in an interview with Bill Bonner. You can almost see it starting in Greece where over the lat 4 days 3 billion Euros or about 3.5 billion dollars have been removed by depositors in Greek banks. It is an interesting, depressing interview.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest. However both the Nasdaq and S&P500 indexes have had added another two distribution days for a count of 6 each. I’ve seen the number get as high as 7 before the trend change IBD changes the trend. It is too risky time for me to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.96, a sell price 22.81, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 241.15 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 86.77, a sell price 83.69, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 273.66, a sell price 259.98, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 36.89, a sell price 37.12, a rank of 07, and is a Sell.
Fidelity has a 1.5% redemption fee on ChinaRegion for any shares held for less than 90 days. I consider this another greedy fee Fidelity has on mutual funds which does not exist on ETFs. As of this weekend, FHKCX is down 3.72% since I purchased it. An ETF, CNTX, which China investments is up 16.87% over the same period. Both would be a sell, but the ETF does not have the greedy Fidelity redemption fee. FHKCX lost 1.9% on Friday, so even waiting a day or two to sell it could cost me more. It could also turn around and go gack up. I do not have a clue.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell China Region
IRA #2 – Sell China Region

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

Not an exciting week. Some days up, some days down. The overall trend seems to be trendless. One of the opinions on Marketwatch.com today is “These diverging trends point to a market correction, says UBS’. The statistics I mentioned last week on stocks above their 50 day moving average are almost exactly the same. Another interesting article on Marketwatch.com is “The Fed accidentally created the most resilient bull market ever.” The Fed meets again this coming week.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest. However both the Nasdaq and S&P500 indexes have had 4 distribution days each – no change from last week.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.86, a sell price 22.81, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 237.13 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 85.75, a sell price 83.69, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 38.59, a sell price 37.12, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 262.36, a sell price 251.85, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Currently the Dow Jones Industrial Average is below its 50 day moving average. Same for the S&P500. The Nasdaq is above. Above the 50 day moving average is good, below is not so good. Above the 200 day moving average is ok, below is bad. TLT which is an ETF of the US Treasury 20+ year bond is below its 200 day average. On etfscreen.com, the 2nd, 3rd, 6th, 7th, 9th, and 10th best performing ETFs over the last week have been BEAR US Treasury funds, all up more that 10% for the week. Not a time to be invested in bonds.
38% of the stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are above their 50 day moving average and only 52% are above their 200 day moving average – not a good sign.

IBD TBP’s Market Pulse (new name for Current Outlook) is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest. However both the Nasdaq and S&P500 indexes have had 4 distribution days each. The last time the relative numbers were 7 and 6 the Market Pulse moved to “Uptrend under Pressure”, and then a week later at 7 & 7 the Market Pulse changed to “Market in Correction”.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.84, a sell price 22.81, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 238.79 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 86.60, a sell price 83.69, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 38.33, a sell price 37.12, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 265.10, a sell price 251.85, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested