Month: May 2015

Frequently the 50 day moving average of a stock or index is used to decide we are in an up trend. Currently only 43% of stocks on the New York Stock Exchange are above their 50 day moving average. On the Nasdaq the number is 48%. The S&P 500 index is 1% above its 50 day moving average, and the Nasdaq index is 2% above. Both indexes are capital weighted averages so the larger capitalized stocks, Apple, Microsoft, Exxon, etc., have a greater impact than the smaller companies. Comparing the index to the average stocks indicate the larger companies are doing better than the average company. Generally that is not a good sign.

I am a late in documenting this: April update for many of my investments.
In April IRA#1 -1.4%, IRA#2 -1%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS -2%, TQQQ -8%, TQQQ/SQQQ -7%, Power4 -3%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 +10%, IRS#2 +5%, PDPetc +2%, TQQQ -14%, TQQQ/SQQQ -13%, Power4 -0%.
April portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – Purchased China Region on 04/27.
IRA#2 – Purchased China Region on 04/27.
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – Sold PDP on 04/27, purchaed PIE on 04/27.
TQQQ – Purchased TQQQ on 04/24, sold TQQQ on 04/30.
TQQQ/SQQQ – Purchased TQQQ on 04/24, sold TQQQ on 04/30.
Power4 – Purchased PTH on 04/27, sold PFU on 04/27, purchased PXI on 04/27.
I’ve decided I’ve lost enough on my TQQQ and TQQQ/SQQQ portfolios. It is the only portfolios I have which lost money over the last 12 months. I plan to change the criteria I use for investing. I’m not sure what I plan to do but will update my web site when I figure it out.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.94, a sell price 22.81, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 241.32 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 88.09, a sell price 83.69, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 38.55, a sell price 37.12, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 264.56, a sell price 251.33, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

We are in the Sell in May and Go Away time of year. I listen to the Elliot Wave podcast and it says the market will fall by 50%. The GaryK podcast says the market shows signs of being at a peak but could continue to show those signs for a long time. The Dorsey Wright podcast says the market is still in an uptrend. I do not have a clue which way the market is going, but statistically the May through October is the time the market goes nowhere.
Doug Fabian published a weekly podcast and articles on investing. In his latest podcast, he points out there over 100 ETFs which invest in China. China has been his number invest suggestion lately.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 24.01, a sell price 22.81, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 240.31 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 85.74, a sell price 81.45, a rank of 10, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 94.67, a sell price 91.67, a rank of 26, and is a Sell.
ChinaRegion has a price of 39.07, a sell price 37.12, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 262.24, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a Buy.
SRetailing fell out of the top 20 funds and since it is a buy week, I will sell it.
SBiotechnology I sold on 3/30 at 262.05 when it had declined by over 5% in one week. It is obviously a volitle fund, but is currently rated a buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SRetailing and buy SBiotechnology.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

I suggested to another investor that the 200 day moving average for investments could be obtained from finance.yahoo.com (FYC). The major problem with this approach is that FYC fails to use the close adjusted for distribution. I have written them a couple of times about this without results. Fidelity China Region Fund had a 15% distribution on 12/05/14. So on 05/15/15 FYC reports the 200 day moving average as 33.50 and the 50 day moving average as 35.01. FYC also will let you download the daily prices to a CSV file from the Historical Prices selection. Adding a formula or two to that spread sheets results in a 200 day moving average of 31.49 and a 50 day moving average of 35.01. So much for trusting FYC to calcluate accurate numbers. That is why I keep my own data and my own calculations.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.
On Thursday, 05/14, the outlook changed to Confirmed Uptrend.
The changes in the current outlook seem to be more frequent than before.
The outlook was last confirmed uptrend on 04/29, changed to uptrend under pressure on 04/30, and changed to market in correction on 5/06.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.77, a sell price 22.58, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 234.05 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 84.87, a sell price 80.63, a rank of 15, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 94.77, a sell price 91.67, a rank of 19, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 37.68, a sell price 36.24, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

This week Doug Fabian’s weekly podcast (http://www.fabianwealth.com/weekly-broadcast/radio/) featured several opinions on the future. 1. We are in probably in at least a 10% market correction. Without the Friday up day this would have been a down week. 2. With 93 million adults not in the work force and receiving government benefits, taxes have to go up and by 2017 the deficit starts to explode. 3. Taxes will be going up based on the Simpson-Bowles “fix the debt plan” published in 2013. One of the items mentioned was that I’ve not heard before is that benefits are taken away based on assets. 1.2 Trillion dollars in tax deductions (real estate taxes, mortgage interest deductions, etc.) have to be cut. Income taxes, gas taxes, social security taxes, every tax will be going up. Politicians do not care what you were told or promised – their only goal is to get reelected and they cannot get relected by cutting benefits to the 50% of the population receiving them. Also remember only 50% of the US pay income taxes.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Market in correction” – not a time to invest. In a correction, the proper strategy is to quickly get off margin, raise cash, cut losses fast in your poor performers and let go of other stocks that threaten to wipe away recent gains.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.51, a sell price 22.57, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 234.74 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 83.97, a sell price 80.17, a rank of 15, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 95.06, a sell price 91.67, a rank of 11, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 37.52, a sell price 36.21, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The Efficient Market Theory indicates you cannot trade the market because there are no inefficiencies. Therefore buy and hold is the best investment method. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-everything-you-know-about-markets-wrong Dr. Eric Prentis presents an interesting rebuttal to that view.
In addition in the podcast (or https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XVFQu_0MGc) “Trend following with Michael Covel” episode 39, Dr.Eric Prentis (theastuteinvoestor.net) explains the social phychopaths who run wall street and the US government will continue to spend your tax money because they have just don’t care. One of the most tragic thing is those who are in one group will migrate to the other group over time. The interview was done in 2012.

So the Nasdaq hit a new high last week and this week and then took a big hit on Thursday. I figured that I would have a lot to sell this weekend, but with the up Friday nothing was a sell. Not a good week but not a real bad week. I have been suggesting to my tax clients that they make sure them monitor their 401k because a 6+ year bull market is unusual.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend under pressure” – not a time to invest. The “Confirmed uptrend” IBD reported on 4/23 lasted only a week.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.20, a sell price 22.57, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 231.54 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 84.36, a sell price 80.17, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 94.42, a sell price 91.67, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 38.12, a sell price 36.21, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested