Month: April 2015

Jim Rogers:Tuesday, April 21, 2015
We are all Going to Pay a Terrible Price
We’re going to have economic hard times again. Next time it will be worse because the debt is so much higher and because for the first time in recorded history, all major central banks are printing huge amounts of money. So there’s this gigantic artificial ocean of liquidity that’s going to dry up some day, and when it does, we’re all going to pay a terrible price.

The Nasdaq composite hit a new high today and this week passed the peak it set on March 10, 2000. Of course the stocks on the Nasdaq composite are different, the dollar is 20% lower but it is a new high. In 2000 we were in a .com bubble, and interet rates were higher. Now we are in a biotech bubble – 140 new biotech IPOs in the 3 years for companies with no sales – and interest rates are the lowest in history.
In fact negative interest rates in some foreign countries require you to pay the bank when you save money and when you borrow money the bank has to pay you. The story last week was that Spain and a few other countries are having to reprogram their computers due to negative interst rates. There are about 14T dollors in government bonds in Europe which have a negative yield if held to maturity.

I am a late in documenting this: March update for many of my investments.
In March IRA#1 +5%, IRA#2 +2%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS +1%, TQQQ -13%, TQQQ/SQQQ -13%, Power4 +1%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 +18%, IRS#2 +6%, PDPetc +3%, TQQQ -22%, TQQQ/SQQQ -24%, Power4 +3%.
January portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – Sold SBiotechnology on 03/30.
IRA#2 – Sold SBiotechnology on 03/30.
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – None.
TQQQ – Sold 50% TQQQ on 03/09, sold remaining TQQQ on 03/10, purchased TQQQ on 03/23, sold half TQQQ on 03/26, sold remaining TQQQ on 03/27.
TQQQ/SQQQ – Sold TQQQ on 03/09, purchased TQQQ on 3/23, sold TQQQ on 03/26.
Power4 – Purchased PFI on 03/23, sold PTH on 03/26.
Details on the management of these portfolios can be found at https://www.flynndj.com/my-iras/5-additional-information-2/ and https://www.flynndj.com/7-etf-investment-study/. Both URLs need updating to point out I only buy when IBD TBP CO is “Confirmed Uptrend.”

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” -time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.76, a sell price 22.57, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 241.91 a sell price 229.81, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 83.30, a sell price 80.17, a rank of 24, and is a Hold untill it declines more or I need to buy something better.
SRetailing has a price of 96.49, a sell price 91.67, a rank of 11, and is a Hold.
ChinaRegion has a price of 38.15, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01. and is a Buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Invest 100% in ChinaRegion
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in ChinaRegion

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

At times I suggest investors who would like to start investing purchase SPY. SPY is an ETF which follows the S&P500 index by investing in each of the 500 stocks in the same ratio they are in the index. It the last year it is up 11%. If you had followed a method of staying invested in SPY as long as it was above its 200 day average, you would have been out about a week in October with minimum impact. The reason I suggest selling when the price falls below the 200 day average is because you never know if it is the start of another 2007/8 60% drop – which would not be fun. Fidelity has a fund, FUSEX, which does the same thing, but since it is a mutual fund instead of an exchange traded fund, it has greater fees, cannot be sold during the day, cannot have a stop loss, and may have of Fidelity’s dumb short term trading fees if you sell it too soon.

One of the most interesting movers in Fidelity funds is China Region. It has been in the top 20 of my funds list for 3 weeks and is now number 1 and has been up 17% over the last month. It sure looks like a bubble.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – NOT a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.48, a sell price 22.49, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 238.70 a sell price 228.67, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 83.66, a sell price 80.17, a rank of 11, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 93.06, a sell price 90.65, a rank of 16, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

I was looking for some more iTunes radio shows and stumbled across Trend Following with Michael Coval. I started listening to all of them – only 300 or more to go – and came accross number 17 – interview with James Rohrbach. He has been of the top market timers for decades. He does not reveal exactly the method he uses, but suggests you could follow stocks with a 15-30 cross over. He is talking about using a 15 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) relative to a 30 day EMA. Selling when the 15 day goes lower than the 30 day and vice versa. A 15 day calculation id EMA(0) = P*a + EMA(-1)*(1-a) where P is the current price, a is the smoothing factor ( a = 2/(1+N) ), and where N is the number of days The same calculation is used for the 30 day EMA using an N of 30. I have been using an EMA since the start of my investing. In my case I calculate an a of 2/(1+39) or .05 and then divide the current price by the EMA to get the deviation. Trend Following with Michael Coval is generally interview with successful traders and is quite interesting.  

Again this week a fedhead came out on Friday and said we should not raise interest rates for at lease a year and the market responded. We are still being controlled by the federal reserve board. So if the previous  reactions to fedhead talks continue, the market should be up this coming week.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – NOT a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.67, a sell price 22.49, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 240.71 a sell price 228.67, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 84.39, a sell price 80.17, a rank of 13, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 95.42, a sell price 90.65, a rank of 10, and is a Hold.
So the numbers bounced all over the place due to distributions of 1.3% to 5.5%.
I have my distributions taken and not reivested. By the time a fund has a distribution I may no longer want to buy it.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

Not a very good week. Doug Fabian on his podcast last week talked about all the market manipulation by the central banks. Last Friday the head of the US Federal Resrve indicated maybe interest rates would not be raised soon. The head of the China federal bank indicated they should reduce interest rates. The Japanese federal bank is buying bonds and stocks. All in an attempt to keep the market up. It worked on Monday with the DJIA going up 1.6% and the S&P500 and Nasdaq going up about 1.4%. Then for the rest of the week the market bounced around and ended up with about 0.5% gain for the week.
I was talking with an energy trader from Houstin this week. She feels oil has further to fall. She also was considering shorting the DJIA. I suggested with the market making moves every time a centeral banker opens his mouth it was a little risky.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – NOT a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.66, a sell price 23.19, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 575.06 a sell price 239.25, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 86.82, a sell price 85.54, a rank of 16, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 95.31, a sell price 91.31, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested