Month: March 2015

It was not a good week. SBotechnology fell to below its sell mark. I do not have a clue if next week is up or down but with a 6 year bull market, I am sure we close to the end. In his evening radio show Gary Kaltbaum, garyk.com, always mentions the biotech stock which have billion dollar market capitalization with NO sales. True bubble activity.
I do not have the time to go into details of each trade in the my various accounts, but the end of Feb results for 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months are:
IRA #1 5%, 15%, 11%, 14%
IRA #2 5%, 5%, 4%, 0%
PDP& 3%, 1%, -1%, -3%
TNorm 7%,-19%, -3%, -1%
TShor 8%,-24%, -6%,-17%
Powr4 2%, 0%, NA, NA
Details on how each of these manage can be found on my web site flynndj.com.
I will try to go into greater details after this insane tax season ends.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – NOT a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.82, a sell price 23.19, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 256.70, a sell price 259.06 a rank of 01, and is a Sell.
SHealthCare has a price of 244.22 a sell price 239.25, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 87.72, a sell price 85.54, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 94.81, a sell price 91.31, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell SBiotechnology
IRA #2 – Sell SBiotechnology

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

Really an unbelievable up week.
Chuck Jafee’s show MoneyLive on 20Mar15 featured Brian Frank manager the Frank Funds. FRNKX is a value oriented fund which goes to cash when there are not a lot of value stocks due to the current up market. Currently his fund has just crossed the 40% cash mark because the market is too high.
Investors’s Edge nightly radio on 20Mar15 had an interview with Jim Rohrback of investment-models.com. His mechanical system says we are in a bear market and he is out of the market. Send an email to Jim@rixindex.com and he will send you a copy of his latest email.
Gark Kaltbaum on Investor’s Edge indicates the trend is up, but we are in a biotech bubble. Each night he comments on several of the new biotech stocks which have NO sales, have stock prices going up, and are valued at more than a billion dollars.

I am a little behind in reporting my gains/losses but I blame that on my job. New software (which mostly works), new tax rules, fewer employees, and more work to do has resulted in a 70+ hour work week.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Resumes” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 24.41, a sell price 23.19, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 272.69, a sell price 259.06 a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 251.84 a sell price 239.25, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 90.04, a sell price 85.54, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 96.12, a sell price 91.31, a rank of 10, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Not a good week. Out of the 130 funds I follow only CashReserves and SBanking are buys and with fund rankings of 107 and 71. As I mentioned in my 27Feb email there are several market indicators which say this should be a good year, however I still think the market will peak soon (if it hasn’t already).
One of the ETFs I’ve mentioned before is FV – First Trust Dorsey Wright Associates (DWA) Focus 5 ETF. It is designed to proved investments in sector and industry based ETFs which DWA believes will have the greatest possibility to out perform. A weekly analysis of relative strength determinse which ETFs constitute FV. As of 13Mar15 FV was made up of a Consumer Discretionary fund (FXD), Consumer Staples fund (FXG), Dow Jones Internet Index fund (FDN), Health Care fund (FXH), and Biotechnology fund (FBT).
FV is up about 11% over the last 3 months. With an ETF, unlike a fund, it can be purchased or sold at any time of the day and a stop loss order can be used to limit losses.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.31, a sell price 22.14, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 259.76, a sell price 246.77 a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 240.78 a sell price 228.74, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 87.89, a sell price 84.99, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 93.76, a sell price 89.40, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Not a good week. Out of the 130 funds I follow only CashReserves is a buy and it has a fund rank is 108. Friday the IBD TBP’s Current Outlook changed due a day when both the Nasdaq and S&P500 had distribution days. Distribution days happen when the market is down on volume – an indication the large portfolio managers are selling.
The world wide printing of money has resulted in countries like Germany, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, and Austria selling negative yielding bond. You can purchase a bond which at maturity will be redeemed for less than your purchase price. There have been over 2T of such bonds issued. This is just another governments effort trying to get investors to invest in the market or spend their money to stimulate the economy.
Gary Kaltbaum’s Friday podcast suggests the Nasdaq on 02Mar when it close at over 5,000 was at a near term top – for two or four weeks – subject to change.
The price of Biotechnology and HealthCare funds continue to go up. It really reminds me of the .com bubble in 2000 which did not end well.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 22.88, a sell price 21.93, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 258.46, a sell price 245.54, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 237.16 a sell price 225.30, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 89.46, a sell price 84.99, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 94.11, a sell price 89.40, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested