Month: January 2015

On the 15Jan show of Moneylife, Chuck Jaffe’s guest was David Brown of Sabrient Systems – sabrientsystems.com. Each year they present Sabrient Baker’s Dozen which has outperformed the market every year it has been presented – 6 years. The current list can be review at http://www.ftportfolios.com/retail/dp/dpsummary.aspx?fundid=10624. That URL is really an information sheet for the unit invest trust – FNHTMX – which has extra charges. The dozen, tracked at http://www.dark-liquidity.com/SabrientSystems.php gained 22% last year. One of their 2014 dozen lost 46% and one gained  116%. If I were to invest in some of the dozen, I would just follow all 13 and buy that which is going up the most.

As some of you pointed out I made a slight error in my quote for for SHealthCare last week. Thank you for noticing the error.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – Not a Time to invest. The Outlook declined to it’s current level after the market decline on Wed.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.79, a sell price 21.06, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 235.85, a sell price 224.06, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 222.20 a sell price 215.88, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 90.38, a sell price 91.54, and is a sell.
SAirTransportation has a price of 71.63, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell STransportation

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested 

James Lange has a radio show which he podcasts. On is web site www.paytaxeslater.com, episode 102 features Dr. Laurence Kotlikoff, a professor at Boston University. He has written several books including The Clash of Generations: Saving Ourselves, Our Kids and Our Economy. After a horrendously gloomy picture of our future he provides solutions an individual can take. There is limited discussion of the book and the primary discussion was social security, providing some options to maximise your benefits. Taking benefits based on just becoming retirement age is probably one of the worst reasons to start taking benefits.
So the European Union decided to start quentative easing in order to stimulate European economies by buying $1.3T in bonds. When the owners of the bonds sell them, the money is then used to buy other investments. Thus the market goes up. The Nasdaq went up 1.8% the day the EU QE was announced. Again governments are controlling the markets by printing money. Investment prices are not based on earnings, growth, etc. but on what the next government financial official does or says.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – Time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 22.17, a sell price 21.06, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 235.05, a sell price 223.30, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 227.04 a sell price 215.69, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 94.68, a sell price 91.54, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 74.03, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook was in a confirmed uptrend until the close on 1/13/15. A review of the Nasdaq Composite Index chart – http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ – will show the close of the index below the 50 moving average on Tuesday and continuing down.
On the Nightly Business Report today, Monhamed El-Erian said in his view we were entering a world of increased volatility. He also said the ECB stimulus expected next week was at least 500,000,000 Euro and anything less would cause investments to sell off. Welcome to Government Markets.
One of the investments I’ve missed is buying a home in Palo Alto. The Nightly Business Report indicated the the median price of homes under 1000 square feet was 1.7M in 2014. Anyone see another housing bubble?
With tax season underway – the IRS accepted the first return from my office on 1/14 – stolen idenity is also underway. If you live in FL, GA, or DC (leaders in identity thieft) you can apply online for an Idenity Protection PIN online and get it in about 5 minutes. With that IP PIN any tax return submitted with your social security number will be rejected unless that PIN is on the return (if the IRS checks the IP PIN which it did not do the first year the program started). It is probably not a bad idea to get an IP PIN, especially if you have spent some time in a hospital in the last couple of years.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – Not a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 22.09, a sell price 20.99, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 232.62, a sell price 220.99, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 223.35 a sell price 212.18, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 91.66, a sell price 91.54, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 71.13, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 11, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

In the old days GM was short for General Motors. After the government bailed them out, GM changed to Government Motors. The latest definition of GM is Government Markets. On Wednesday the Federal Reserve Board came out and said they were concerned about the recession in which so many foreign countries found themselves. The implication was that more money printing could be required. Thus the markets responded by going up. After Tuesday I was concerned about being fully invested but by week end, I was happy I was fully invested.
Over the last coumple of years over 120 biotechnology firms have gone public and sold stock to investors. Most of these new offerings had no sales but the public liked the concepts. Investors have purchased the stocks and created companies with market valuation of billions with no sales. This is exactly what happened in the .com bubble of the late 1990s. We are obviously in a biotechnology bubble and someday it will burst.
It turns out I did not leave town this weekend as soon as I thought I would so had time to produce this report.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Confirmed” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.79, a sell price 20.76, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 230.71, a sell price 219.17, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 223.18 a sell price 212.02, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 92.81, a sell price 91.54, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 72.93, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 07, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

December was a mediocre to poor month for my investments.
In December IRA#1 +2%, IRA#2 +1%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS -0%, TQQQ -10%, TQQQ/SQQQ -14%, Power4 +1%.
For the last 3 months, IRA#1 -0%, IRS#2 +1%, PDPetc +1%, TQQQ +15%, TQQQ/SQQQ +18%, Power4 +3%.
December portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None.
IRA#2 – None.
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – Sold PIE on 12/11.
TQQQ – Sold TQQQ on 12/09, purchased 50% TQQQ on 12/24 – now 50% invested.
TQQQ/SQQQ – Sold TQQQ on 12/09, purchased SQQQ on 12/16, sold SQQQ on 12/18 – now all in cash.
Power4 – None.

Two of the investments I am considering are FV and DWAT. Both are ETFs consisting of investments in other ETFs based of Dorsey Wright investment models. FV is up 7% over the last 3 months and DWAT is up 6%. Both are automatically adjusted to hold the best ETFs within their respective allowable investments.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not a time to invest.
7 distribution days for the Nasdaq and 6 distribution days for the S&P500 – anything over 4 suggests a down market may be coming because the larger investment portforios are selling stock.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.36, a sell price 20.76, a rank of 15, and is a Hikd.
SBiotechnology has a price of 223.79, a sell price 217.99, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 218.01 a sell price 211.74, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 95.79, a sell price 91.54, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 74.30, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested