Month: December 2014

In Paul Merriman’s latest podcast (24 Dec) he discussed “How To Get the Most Out of PaulMerriman.com.” It is a website with articles, 401(k) plan reccomendations for over 100 company plans, free ebooks and to my suprise an article on investment timing. Every time I’ve listened to his podcast he has strongly pushed buy and hold as the only form of investing. In an article titled “Why Market Timing Doesn’t Work”, he points out that about half of his investments are governed by timing. It is an article worth reading.

This week the Wall Street Journal reported that the total amount of economic stimulation various governments have made is over $18T since they started with more to come. That money will have to go somewhere and some of it will continue to support the stock market until investors lose faith in their governments.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not a time to invest.
Last week not one of my top 20 funds was rated as a buy by having an increasing deviation for the last two weeks. This week 17 are rated buy.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.52, a sell price 20.76, a rank of 22, and is a hold until it is time to buy something else.
SBiotechnology has a price of 222.33, a sell price 217.99, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 219.37 a sell price 211.74, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 96.36, a sell price 91.54, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 74.36, a sell price 70.64, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

For many years I’ve occasionally listened to James Lange whose website is paytaxeslater.com. He produces a radio show in Pittsburgh every other Wednesday night. I receintly found he is now podcasting his show. I suggest you go to paytaxeslater.com/radioshow.php and listen to episode 100 which is the highlights of all the previous show. As I listened, I noticed several recommendations would have helped me financially over the years.

So the federal reserve board comes out and announces we still are not going to raise interest rates, and the market takes off. We are in a market controlled by governmental comments.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not a time to invest.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.75, a sell price 20.76, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 229.46, a sell price 217.99, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 222.88. a sell price 211.74, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 94.53, a sell price 91.05, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 71.75, a sell price 70.76, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
Four of my five funds had distributions and the sell price has been adjusted appropriately.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

As oil prices decline, oil demand seems to be declining also and the question is “is the world going into a recession”. The decrease in oil prices is obviously going to put some oil companies out of business, employees out of work, and thus the tax flow to governments less. Worldwide, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Russia and Venezuela all require a price of greater than $100 to support their budgets. With oil at $57.49 a barrel these countries are do not have enough income to support their spending. If oil remains low for any length of time the unrest of these countrys and their citizens will increase.
On 10Dec IBD TBP’s Current Outlook declined from confirmed uptrend. This is sure a time to make sure your are ready to sell. The investments I have in my 4 ETF portfolio all have stop loss orders waiting for execution based on 8% below the hightest daily close. As a result of these stop loss orders, 2 ETFs in those portfolios were sold earlier in te week.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not a time to invest.
Only 3 of the 130 funds I follow would be a buy on my criteria.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 22.38, a sell price 21.85, a rank of 10, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 218.95, a sell price 208.00, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 233.93. a sell price 225.88, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 93.97, a sell price 92.25, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 72.54, a sell price 71.28, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

One of the more interesting emails I received was “The Felder Report” by Jesse Felder. “I couldn’t be more vocal about the risks to investors in the US stock market …” The blog can be read at http://thefelderreport.com/2014/12/03/the-true-contrarian-is-on-an-island/. It is worth a read.
China has overtaken the US as the world’s largest economy. China’s economy has been growing at 7% per year and the US at 2%. There are several ETFs which invest in China. Doug Fabian at Fabianwealth.com has a weekly podcast where he coninues to suggest some of the better China ETFs.
Paul Merrimon has a weekly podcast where he presents his ideas on long term investing. In his latest podcast he mentioned that he has review annuities and feels the USAA and Vanguard offer the best annuity at the lowest cost.
The government is proposing that you be allowed to rollover your 401k into a governent annunity. It will be managed and guaranteed by the government. As an annuity you will get a fixed monthly income, but unable to get to the balance if you need it and when you pass away it is gone. Seems like another way for the government to take your money. 18T in admitted debt (and 113T in additional guarentees) and they want me to let them have my 401k.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.
Only 7 of the 130 funds I follow would be a buy on my criteria.

My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.00, a sell price 21.85, a rank of 08, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 218.42, a sell price 207.50, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 237.77. a sell price 225.88, a rank of 05, and is a Hold.
STransportation has a price of 97.11, a sell price 92.25, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 75.03, a sell price 71.28, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
The price and sell price of SBiotechnology was adjusted by a distribution of 23.84.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested