Month: October 2014

This week the federal reserve board, and its counterparts around the world, decided the market needed more liquidity and so continued to buy securities. The FED has a meeting coming up this week, and with the election less than two weeks away will do nothing to disrupt the uptrend. My concern is for the market after the election. Historically November is the start of the growth season. Additionally, on average, the best two years of any presidential term has been the last two years.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SUtilities has a price of 76.11, a sell price 72.30, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.62, a sell price 20.71, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 227.22, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy.
SBiotechnology is obviously an extremely speculative mutual fund.

I noticed an error in last week’s note. In my current investments, I indicated I would not sell SPharmaceuticals since I had not owned it for 30 days. In my portfolio changes I indicated I was selling it. Sorry for the confusion, I did not sell it.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Buy SBiotechnology
IRA #2 – Buy SBiotechnology

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

Wednesday when the Nasdaq was down more than 3% a member of the federal reserve board decided to discuss the possibility that the FED should consider reversing its decision to quit purchasing securities and the Nasdaq stopped the decline and started going up. I expect the FED will continue to talk the market up. The Nasdaq declined below its 200 day moving last Friday and remains below it. The crossing of the 200 day moving average is often an indication of a declining market. An interesting note on my list of top 20 funds is the fact CashReserves, which never goes up or down, is #18.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Market in correction” – Not a time to invest. The downtrend continues. SHealthCare was down 3%, SPharmaceuticals was down 2%, and SUtilities was down 1%.

My current investments:
SHealthCare has a price of 208.22, a sell price 211.32, a rank of 04, and is a Sell.
SUtilities has a price of 73.12, a sell price 71.68, a rank of 10, and is a Hold.
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 20.44, a sell price 20.71, a rank of 09, and would be sold if I had owned it for 30 days. To sell it before 30 days violates on of Fidelity’s dumb rules.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – Sell SHealthCare

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

Monday the market was down a little, Tuesday it was down a lot, Wednesday the market started down, and then about 2pm the Federal Reserve Board suggested that due to slowing global growth they were not going to raise interest rates yet and the market reclaimed most of its loss this week. Thursday the market was down big and Friday it was down again. We may be at the place where the market starts ignoring the Fed. That would be a bad sign since the market has been held up by the liquidity the Fed has been providing. Currently the Fed has a balance sheet of 4.4T in investments it has purchased to provide liquidity. Imagine the market when the Fed finally sells all its 4.4T. I just cannot see the market going down anymore before the election because a down market is bad for those in power.
Consuelo Mack’s program Wealthtrack featured Nancy Lazar on 03Oct. Ms. Lazar explained why the US is the driver of global economic growth and suggested that to profit from this growth an investor should buy UUP – an ETF which follows the value of the US dollar. UUP is up 6% for the 3 months.
Doug Fabian produces a weekly podcast where he discussed the weekly market events fraturing recommendations on ETFs. On his web site you can sign up for his free weekly e-newsletter. Lately in one of the segments on his weekly podcasts he has been discussing three aspects of the Obama legacy. One aspect is on the continuing increase in taxes (scheduled to increase for at least the next 6 years), a second is on the inability to continue to fund new programs (obamacare and others), and the third is on the requirement to reduce entitlement payments (social security, medicare, etc.).
Gary Kaltbaum, www.garyk.com, has a nightly radio show you can replays on his web site. On his 10/10/14 show he said the latest market actions look like a repeat of 2007.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Market in correction” – Not a time to invest. This was one of my worst weeks ever. SBiotechnlogy was down 7%, SElectronics was down 10%, SHealthCare was down 4%, SUtilities was down 2%, and SPharmaceuticals was down 4%

My current investments:
SBiotechnology has a price of 204.26 a sell price 208.07, a rank of 06, and is a Sell.
SElectronics has a price of 69.97, a sell price 76.99, a rank of 90, and is a Sell.
SHealthCare has a price of 213.66, a sell price 211.32, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SUtilities has a price of 73.59, a sell price 71.68, a rank of 09, and is a Hold.
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 20.93, a sell price 20.71, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell SBiotechnology
IRA #2 – Sell Sbiotechnology and SElectronics

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

September was not a profitable month. In September my 5 portfolios, IRA#1 -1%, IRA#2 -1%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS -3%, TQQQ -6%, TQQQ/SQQQ -10%. For the last 3 months, IRA#1 +1%, IRS#2 -4%,  PDP… +0%, TQQQ +5%, TQQQ/SQQQ -5%.
September portfolio changes:
IRA#1 – None.
IRA#2 – Purchased SHealthCare on 09/02, SUtilities on 09/08, and SPharmaceutical on 09/22.
PDP PIE PIX DWAS – Sold DWAS on 09/22 when the 3 month gain turned negative and purchased DWAS. Current positions are Cash 51%, PDP 33% and PIE 16%.
TQQQ – Sold half TQQQ on 09/16, purchased half TQQQ on 09/19, sold half TQQQ on 09/23.
TQQQ/SQQQ – Sold TQQQ on 09/16, purchased TQQQ on 09/19, sold TQQQ on 09/23.

My investing rules for these portfolios are on my web site:
1 – for funds https://www.flynndj.com/my-iras/fund-evaluation-method/
2 – for ETFs https://www.flynndj.com/7-etf-investment-study/

An interesting ETF was started this week. DWAT invests in the best performing ETFs within the best performing asset class. The fund can be invested in 100% US Equities, Fixed Income, 60% in International Equities, and 30% in Inverse Equity, Currencies, Commodities, and Real Estate. Currently it is invested 91% in US Equity, 8% in Real Estate, and 1% in cash. A list of its current investments can be view at http://www.arrowshares.com/default.aspx?menuitemid=124. Currently the #1 investment in DWAT is ETF XLV – Health Care Select Sector – at 13% of assets. It will be interesting to watch DWAT assets change as momentum of each asset class and ETF change.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Market in correction” – Not a time to invest. The change from “Uptrend under Pressure” took place after Wednesday’s market decline. It was not a good
week in the market.

My current investments:
SBiotechnology has a price of 218.77 a sell price 208.07, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 77.33, a sell price 76.99, a rank of 06, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 222.44, a sell price 211.32, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SUtilities has a price of 74.99, a sell price 71.68, a rank of 21, and is a Hold until something better is a buy or it drops below its sell line.
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.80, a sell price 20.71, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested