Month: August 2014

Chuck Jaffee in his MoneyLiveShow.com podcast for 15Aug featured Sandra Stoutenburg, Senior Market Analysis, for InvesTech Research, www.investech.com. InvesTech’s indicators average a peak about 8 months before the market top. At this time the indicators do not definitively indicate a coming market top. They do not catch an immediate market drops but generally indicate major market tops. Right now InvesTech feels the market is in the last 1/3 of the current bull market. They are, however, watching their indicators closely. They are concerned about the level of margin debt, and the divergence of the major market indexes. 
Back in 1999 anything which said .com in its name went to new highs before the peak and crash. The market today looks like anything having to do with biotechnology is going to new highs.  

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SBiotechnology has a price of 218.90 a sell price 207.6, a rank of #1, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 80.47, a sell price 76.45, a rank of #2, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 218.70, a sell price TBD, a rank of #3, and is a buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Buy SHealthCare

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested 

Since IBD TBP’s Current Outlook went to “confirmed Uptrend” the uptrend has continued. IBD points out that the uptrend in February to March lasted four weeks and the April to July uptrend lasted 11 weeks. From a longer point of view, I have suggested to some more conservative investors that they buy SPY, the S&P 500 ETF, and hold it until the 200 day moving average declines, then switch to cash, and when the 200 day moving averages starts to increase again, buy SPY back. If you invested using this method you latest buy would have purchased SPY in Feb 2012 and you would be still invested today.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
SBiotechnology has a price of 207.48 a sell price 197.11, a rank of #5, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 79.88, a sell price TBD, a rank of #1, and is a buy.
It is sort of interesting that the only fund in my list of top 20 funds I would not buy this week is SBiotechnology because the deviation from a 39 week exponentially smoothed moving average has not increased for the last two weeks.
SElectronics was a sell on 08Aug when it 0.03% below 5% off of its weekly highest close. I would have been better off not selling it. In this case the 5% sell line cause me to sell too soon, but then it also could have continued to decline. It is interesting that if you use to 50 day moving average as a sell line which I metioned that Gary Kaltbaum does in last week’s email, SElectronics would have been sold sooner.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Buy SElectronics

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested

Last weekend I worked to update my weekly numbers as soon as Fidelity published them. The first group they updated, indicated by the date (as of 08/08/2014) in the group title, was the select funds. The only problem was that of the 40 mutual funds in the select group 15 of the funds did not contain the 08Aug numbers even though the title said it had been updated. So, as a result, as your emails pointed out, I used an incorrect price for STransportation and should not have sold it. I have updated the 15 incorrect select group quotes so the numbers are better this week. I am really not sure how to insure the quotes Fidelity provides on their funds are correct. Next time I will check the quotes of the funds I own by using another source and if there is a fund to buy or sell, I’ll call Fidelity to verify the quote. I have compained several times in the past about Fidelity giving bad quotes, generally related to a distribution. Fidelity replies, but basically ignores my calls and letters.

www.marketwatch.com had an interesting on the latest quarterly report from Soros Fund Management. They reported that their investment in puts on the S&P500 was increased in a huge way. That is a bet the market will go lower.
Last week on the Charles Panye show on Fox Business News Gary Kalkbaum indicated he used the 50 day moving average an his sell point. Charles said he was a longer term investor and used the 200 day moving avarage.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest. The Outlook was changed on 13Aug14.

My current investments:
SBiotechnology has a price of 209.29 a sell price TPD, a rank of #1, and is a buy.
It was one of the 15 which Fidelity had a bad quote on the website and when corrected was the #12 fund last week.
It has gone up extremely fast since last week so is very volatile..

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Buy SBiotechnology
IRA #2 – Buy SBiotechnology

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested

July was a fun month for about the first half. In July my 5 portfolios, IRA#1 down 2%, IRA#2 down 4%, PDP PIE PIZ DWAS down 1%, TQQQ up 3%, TQQQ/SQQQ up 4%. For the last 3 months, IRA#1 +4%, IRS#2 -1%, PDP etal -1%, TQQQ +14%, TQQQ/SQQQ +15%. IRA#1 and IRA#2 changes are reported in these notes. PDP etal purchased PDP and PIZ in May (the 2 which had 3 month gains) when IBD said “Uptrend Confirmend” (UC). TQQQ was purchased in May when IBD said UC and half sold in July when IBD said “Uptrend under Pressured” (UP). TQQQ/SQQQ – TQQQ was purchaed in May when IBD said UC and sold in July when IBD said UP. TQQQ/SQQQ did not buy SQQQ since IBD never said “Market in Correction” (MC). I described the TQQQ and TQQQ/SQQQ in my 07Mar email – flynndj.com. Both are based on IBD’s ETF strategy using TQQQ instead of QQQ and now using a 8% stop loss updated daily.
On 01Aug, the remaining TQQQ shares in the TQQQ portfolio was sold when it fell below the 8% stop loss (updated daily).
On 05Aug, IBD said “Market in Correction” and the next day TQQQ/SQQQ purchased SQQQ at the open. SQQQ goes up 3 times faster than the market goes down – and vice versa.

One of the podcasts I have to which had previously listened and just started again is Paul Merriman. At PaulMerriman.com he presents the ultimate buy and hold strategy. He has recommendations for investors in Vanguard, Fidelity, and Schwab. Buy and hold is not my kind of investing, but some investors perfer not to change investments.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Market in Correction” – NOT a time to invest.

My current investments:
SElectronics has a price of 75.50 a sell price 75.53, and is a sell.
STransportation has a price of 79.76, a sell price of 80.16, and is a sell.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell SElectronics
IRA #2 – Sell SElectronics and STransportation.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested

Not a good week in the market. This was the biggest down week in two years. Not one of the 130 mutual funds I follow has had an improving deviation from its moving average over the last two weeks. That is my normal criteria for a fund I may consider buying. Gary Kaltbaum in his Friday night radio show pointed out that the US market generally follows the direction of the German Market – the DAX. The DAX fell below its 50 day moving average in early July, fell below its 200 day moving average Thursday, and is now 2.9% below the 200 day moving average. Good things do not happen when an index is below a 50 day moving average and only bad things happen when an index is below a 200 day moving average. There are significent indicators that a market top is near, as there have been for months, but as long as the Fed is printing money there will probably not be a market correction.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “uptrend under pressure” – NOT a time to invest. I am surprised they have not change the outlook to “market in correction.”

My current investments:
Nordic has a price of 46.46 a sell price 46.94, and is a sell.
SAirTransportation has a price of 63.77, a sell price 64.21, and is a sell.
SElectronics has a price of 76.13 a sell price 75.53, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.
STransportation has a price of 81.26, a sell price of 80.16, a relative rank of 09, and is a hold.
SNaturalGas has a price of 43.83, a sell price 43.84, and is a sell.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – no change
IRA #2 – Sell Nordic, SAirTransportation, and SNaturalGas.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 40% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested