Month: June 2014

This week the US announced the Gross Domestic Product declined by 2.9% in the first quarter of 2014. This is the largest non recession decline since WWII and the largest decline since the great recession 5 years ago. Since government spending on programs is based on a “rosy scenario” of 4% to 5% growth each year, this projects a grim future for budgets, deficits, and national debt. I expect proposals for increased taxes to “alleviate” some of the budget problem will be coming. The market is a predictor of future economic events, it still does not see a problem. However the indications of a market problems are everywhere. Among the indicators are house flipping seminars being presented again, market margin debt at record high, bull sentiment very high, IPOs for companies with no earnings, etc. My suggestion is that you be ready to sell.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “confirmed uptrend” – time to invest. Although the S&P 500 had another distribution day this week. The count is now S&P 500 – 3 and Nasdaq – 2. Distribution days happen when there is a down day and the volume has increased. It is an indication that the managers of large portfolios are selling stock.

My current investments:
Nordic has a price of 48.48 a sell price 46.94, a relative rank of 15, and is a hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 65.75, a sell price 64.21, a relative rank of 11, and is a hold.
SElectronics has a price of 77.29, a sell price 73.94, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.
STransportation has a price of 83.08, a sell price of 79.55, a relative rank of 09, and is a hold.
SNaturalGas has a price of 45.93, a sell price 43.84, a relative rank of 03, and is a hold.
Every fund I own in IRA#1 and IRA#2 went down this week.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – no change
IRA #2 – no change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Last weekend Consuelo Mack on her WealthTrack show featured Michael Hasenstab who manages the Templeton Global Bond Fund. Each week the guest is asked what is the number one investment everyone should own. Mr. Hasenstab suggested Ukrainian government bonds. Doing a Google seach on Ukrainian bonds will show you the Ukraine just issued $1B in bonds – backed by YOU, the US tax payer. Sort of make one wonder how much debt the US really is has.

In February I mentioned that Invesco PowerShares changed 10 of their ETF portfolio to managed momentum portfolios following Dorsey Wright’s definition of relative strength. The announcement of these ETF changes can be found at http://www.invescopowershares.com/news/pdf/P-CHNG-PR-1-E-2013.pdf . These are managed ETFs similar to the PDP, PIZ, PIE, & DWAS (mentioned in previous comments) except the stocks in the portfolios are based in one sector. I’ve been following the 10 EFS for several months calculating their 13 week percent change. At the end of May, in a small account I use for banking, I purchaed PXI (PowerShares DWA Energy Momentum Portfolio) at 59.35 since it was the best performing of the 10. This week it close at 65.85. In rating the 10 EFTs based of their 13 week performance, PXI has been the best over the last 5 weeks. PUI is second, and PYZ is third. 3 of the 10 are down over the last 13 weeks. I update my stop loss at 8% from the highest close since purchased every night. My current stop loss is 60.58 based on the 20 Jun close. The 33 stocks the ETF owns is updated daily at www.invesco.com.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “confirmed uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
Nordic has a price of 48.67 a sell price 46.94, a relative rank of 13, and is a hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 66.28, a sell price 64.21, a relative rank of 08, and is a hold.
SElectronics has a price of 77.83, a sell price 73.94, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.
STransportation has a price of 83.74, a sell price of 79.55, a relative rank of 07, and is a hold.
SNaturalGas has a price of 46.15, a sell price 43.84, a relative rank of 02, and is a buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – no change
IRA #2 – no change

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Thanks to what is happening in the middle east, anything related to energy production went up and anything related to energy consumption went down. Four of my top 20 funds have an increasing deviation from their moving average for the last two weeks and are buys. They are all energy related. The 15 of the others do not quailify as buys and are energy consumers. An increase in the cost of energy is a tax to every consumer. Gasbuddy.com suggestes there is an excellent chance that American gasoline prices could hit new highs. The site points out that if the 3+m barrels of crude oil Iraq pumps every day, are halted, the US and the other Iraq oil customers will have to find new sources. “Less crude oil available means higher prices, it’s the old fundamentals: supply and demand.”

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “confirmed uptrend” – time to invest. IBD TPB’s Market Pulse also indicates the number of distribution days for the S&P 500 is 2 and for the Nasdaq is 1. When the number reaches 4 it is a time to start being careful. Distribution days are down days for either index with increased volume. That suggests the managers of large portfolios are selling.

My current investments:
Nordic has a price of 48.85 a sell price 46.94, a relative rank of 06, and is a hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 65.17, a sell price 64.21, a relative rank of 08, and is a hold.
SElectronics has a price of 77.17, a sell price 73.31, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.
STransportation has a price of 82.03, a sell price of 77.93, a relative rank of 05, and is a hold.
SNaturalGas has a price of 45.13, a sell price TBD, a relative rank of 02, and is a buy.
I had an error in my quote on SElectronics last week. Thank you for the emails.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – no change
IRA #2 – invest 20% in SNaturalGas

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

It has been reported that I screwed up the price for SElectrions. The reports are correct. The correct price is 75.49 with sell price of 71.72 and a rank of #1. Thank you for the emails.

Some returns on my portfolios at the end of May:
IRA#1 – 3mo – -4.51% – In cash for the last two months.
IRA#2 – 3mo – -2.64% – 60% in cash for most of the last two months. Now 40% in cash.
PDP PIE PIZ DWAS CASH – 3mo – -8.36% – stopped out of all investments in April. Now 50% invested in PIE – the only one with a 13 week gain last week.
IBD TBD CO Triple normal – 3mo – -14.40% – 100% in cash since Apr. Now 100% invested in TQQQ.
IBD TBD CO Triple short – 3mo – -24.57% – 100% in cash since Apr. Now 100% invested in TQQQ.
All stock/ETF investments have stop losses orders updated daily. I did not have all the stop losses in place in April – ouch!!

Chuck Jaffee in his daily show MoneyLife (moneylifeshow.com) has an ETF of the week segment from Tom Lydon editor and publisher of ETF Trends. His ETF of this week was HYD. This is a high yield tax free bond fund currently yielding 5.5% tax free per year. He suggests you hold it as long as it is above its 200 day moving average. On the 27May show he had an interview with Igor Gonta, MarketProphit.com. They do an analysis of tweets by following those who give market suggestions and then evaluate their suggestions. The current best are 3 are @etfgodfather, @cdmcapital, and @carsondahlberg. You may want to follow them on Twitter for some investment ideas.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “confirmed uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
Nordic has a price of 49.41 a sell price 46.94, a relative rank of 05, and is a hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 67.59, a sell price 64.21, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.
SElectronics has a price of 74.49, a sell price 70.77, a relative rank of 03, and is a hold.
STransportation has a price of 84.07, a sell price TBD, a relative rank of 02, and is a buy

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – no change
IRA #2 – invest 20% in STransportation

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested