Month: March 2014

From www.garyk.com – “Regardless of the recent rally, we continue to believe we are in a late stage environment as so many characteristics of a late stage market are showing up. They include:…” Gary Kaltbaum wrote that on 12Mar. Then he wrote it again on 24Mar adding a couple more characteristics. A reading of his web site is worth while and listening to his nightly show on line, on itunes, or on the radio show archives is an education.
Another site you should visit daily is http://ibdtv.investors.com/. It is the IBD Market Wrap video generally taking 3+/- minutes. Review the list of Market Wrap videos. The video for 26Mar is also worth reviewing.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Market in Correction” – not time to invest.

My current investments:
Nordic has a price of 45.51, a sell price 43.97, a relative rank of 04, and is a hold.
SSoftware&ComputerServices has a price of 118.58, a sell price 118.43, a relative rank of 28, and is a hold until it falls more or it is sold to buy another fund.
SAirTransportation has a price of 60.34, a sell price 59.32, a relative rank of 13, and is a hold.
OTCPortfolio has a price of 78.91, a sell price 79.52, and is a sell.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell OTCPortfolio
IRA #2 – Sell OTCPortfolio

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

Investors Business Daily maintains a count of “distribution days” for the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. A distribution day is when one of the major indexes closed down at least 0.2% on volume heavier than the day before. If you get 6 distribution days within any 4 or 5 week period, the uptrend will typically roll over into a downtrend. The current IBD count in 8 on the Nasdaq and 5 on the S&P 500. Look out below.

If SBiotechnology closes on Monday at the same place it closed today, I will lose just under 3%. Not a good investment.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not time to invest.

My current investments:
Nordic has a price of 45.04, a sell price 43.97, a relative rank of 16, and is a hold.
SSoftware&ComputerServices has a price of 122.83, a sell price 118.43, a relative rank of 05, and is a hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 60.62, a sell price 59.32, a relative rank of 26, and is a hold until it falls more or is sold to buy another fund.
SBiotechnology has a price of 206.43, a sell price 212.71, a relative rank of 04, and is a sell.
OTCPortfolio has a price of 82.11, a sell price 79.52, a relative rank of 08, and is a hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SBiotechnology

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

I received an email the other day saying the weekly quote I used for SSoftware&ComputerSystems was wrong. It was. Somehow I entered a price about 5% higher than it should have been. This did not really change anything but the relative ranking for that week, the relative deviation for several weeks, and the sell price. One of the ways to check this is to look at the interactive chart on finance.yahoo.com for any stock or fund (FSCSX in this case). Choose a technical indicator of Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and select a line period of 200. That is just about the same results an my calculation. Then looking at Historical Prices, you can pick the most recent weekly close. Just watch out for distirbutions. I’ve not found a charting system which adusts for distributions.

Dorsey Wright & Associates, dorseywright.com, produces a weekly podcast each Wednesday. I thing about 60% of the time it covers little which is interesting. On 03/13/14, it covered details of why the market uptrend will continue. One of their favorate sayings is “What is, is.” In other words, what you think about marked direction does not matter. What is, is.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not time to invest.

My current investments:
Nordic has a price of 45.10, a sell price 43.97, a relative rank of 11, and is a hold.
SSoftware&ComputerServices has a price of 121.03, a sell price 118.43, a relative rank of 10, and is a hold. Sell price corrected by using the correct closing prices.
SAirTra0nsportation has a price of 60.71, a sell price 59.32, a relative rank of 16, and is a hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 213.53, a sell price 212.71, a relative rank of 02, and is a hold.
OTCPortfolio has a price of 81.91, a sell price 79.52, a relative rank of 07, and is a hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

While I have not finished the monthly numbers, Feb was a good month. My IRA invested in 5 funds was up 5% and my IRA invested in one fund was up 3%. Last year I set up 3 small IRAs to do some other type of investing. The IRA which invests in PDP, PIE, PIZ, and DWAS was up 2%, the IRA which follows in IBD TBP’s Current Outlook was up 5%, and a third IRA which almost follows IBD TBP’s Current Outlook was up 0%. On 25 October (you can review it on flynndj.com) I described the investing method I use for the PDP, PIE, PIZ, and DWAS IRA. The second and third small IRAs follow the method IBD set up in their webinar last year – I mentioned the webinar in July – http://ibdtv.investors.com/ibd-webinars/660901-etf-market-strategy-webinar-061813.aspx. For the second small IRA I invest in TQQQ instead of QQQ and the same for the third, except for the third when IBD suggests you sell half, I sell all, and when IBD suggests you sell all, I buy SQQQ. I also weekly update a 8% stop loss on all of these IRA positions. All three of these smaller IRAs are very simple and easy in their method of investing. It only takes a couple of minutes to manage any of these last three IRAs compared to the couple of hours it takes to do the first two.

For those of you who think the market will continue up read the following http://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-signs-were-near-a-market-top-and-what-to-do-now-2014-03-07.
I do not know which way the market will go.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.

My current investments:
Nordic has a price of 46.28, a sell price 43.97, a relative rank of 11, and is a hold.
SSoftware&ComputerServices has a price of 124.66, a sell price 124.16, a relative rank of 08, and is a hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 62.44, a sell price 59.32, a relative rank of 13, and is a hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 217.43, a sell price 212.71, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.
OTCPortfolio has a price of 83.71, a sell price 79.52, a relative rank of 07, and is a hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested