Month: January 2014

The views of Jim Rogers – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LGWK7zDCXI0 . Worth watching.

Friday after the market close, Investors Daily changed the Market outlook to “Uptrend Under Pressure”. It seems like IBD’s market outlook is changing weekly. All of the funds I own went down, but none down enough to sell. On my list of 130 Fidelity mutual funds, only SGold, RealEstateIncome, MunicapalIncome, and StrategicIncome are rated as buy based on their two week improving deviation from their moving average, yet they rank 101, 129, 109, and 110 on my list of best funds. My own feeling is that this current blip is just going to make the Fed decide to print more money or at least start making statements about doing it. The big dip is coming when high income taxpayers start to see how much their taxes have increased, as Consuelo Mack, the host of Wealthtrack, said on her 13Dec show “You might not know it, but your about to get swamped by a wave of higher taxes.”

Lawrence Summers – “America succeeds by raising everybody up. It doesn’t succeed by tearing anybody down,” the former Obama economic adviser and Clinton Treasury secretary told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Thursday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “The rhetoric of envy and the rhetoric of tearing down, I don’t think, is the right rhetoric for America’s leaders.” http://www.cnbc.com/id/101358302

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – not a time to invest.

My current investments:
SAutomotive has a price of $54.15, a sell price $53.51, a relative rank of 60, and will be sold when I need to exchange it for another fund or it passes the sell price.
Nordic has a price of 43.84, a sell price 42.75, a relative rank of 05, and is a hold.
SSoftware&ComputerServices has a price of 117.00, a sell price 114.22, a relative rank of 04, and is a hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 60.57, a sell price 58.74, a relative rank of 03, and is a hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 206.00, a sell price 197.07, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Monday after the market close, Investors Business Daily changed The Market Outlook to “Uptrend Under Pressure” and then on Wednesday evening IBD changed it back to “Confirmed Uptrend”. The market is over due for a correction of at least 10% but until the market decides to ignore the money the Fed pumps into the market, the correction probably will not happen.
On 15Jan14 in IBD’s The Big Picture column they revisited some of John Templeton’s comment – he passed away in 2008. “Legendary investory John Templeton said there are four phases to a bull market. Bull markets are ‘born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria.’ What part of the game are we in now? Most market watchers would probably argue that this game is in either the third or fourth quarter. Euphoria hasn’t stepped into the field. The difficulty is that things happen fast in the euphoria phase.”

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.
SBiotechnology is still in a strong uptrend. A little scarey, but the numbers say buy.

My current investments:
SAutomotive has a price of $56.18, a sell price $53.51, a relative rank of 45, and will be sold when I need to exchange it for another fund or it passes the sell price.
Nordic has a price of 45.00, a sell price 42.75, a relative rank of 05, and is a hold.
SSoftware&ComputerServices has a price of 120.23, a sell price 114.22, a relative rank of 04, and is a hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 61.83, a sell price 58.74, a relative rank of 03, and is a hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of 207.44, a sell price TBD, a relative rank of 01, and is a buy

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in SBiotechnology.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

On Thursday the biotech stock Intercept Pharmaceuticals (ICPT) went up 281% after drug trials proved successful, it went up another 61% on Friday, and is up 500% for the week. The company has never had a profit. The market capitalization of ICPT is 8.62b, last year it had 2m in sales, and the price to sales ratio is 3289.26. Some other companies price to sales ratios are: DIS 2.92, HRB 2.81, UTX 1.67, BA 1.25. Obviously this is a bubble in biotechnology stocks. My only suggestion is you make sure you get out quickly when the bubble bursts. SBiotechnolgy was up 2% on Tuesday, 2% on Wednesday, 5% on Thursday, and 4% on Friday.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest. Obviously anything related to biotechnology had a strong weekly uptrend, but my highest rated fund whose deviation from a 39 week smoothed moving average has increased for two weeks is SAirTransportation.

My current investments:
SAutomotive has a price of $56.33, a sell price $53.51, a relative rank of 45, and will be sold when I need to exchange it for another fund or it passes the sell price.
Nordic has a price of 44.97, a sell price 42.72, a relative rank of 06, and is a hold.
SSoftware&ComputerServices has a price of 119.08, a sell price 113.13, a relative rank of 04, and is a hold.
SAirTransportation has a price of 61.78, a sell price TBD, a relative rank of 03, and is a buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in SAirTransportation.

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested

So I received a call yesterday from someone who really reads my weekly email. He was thanking me for making him so much money. It turns out he sold SBiotechnology when I did, but decided to buy it again and it did great for him. Sometimes I am correct, and then there are other times. One of the lists on my web site is a list of the top 20 funds for the last 78 weeks – I use 39 weeks for my investing and publish it in my email. It turns out that SBiotechnology has been on the list of the top 20 funds for 78 weeks for the last 111 weeks.
The biggest contributors to the crash in 08 was the housing market and the bad mortgage loans which were allowed. The joke was that you could get a loan to buy a house if you had a beating heart. Turns out that since the Senate voted to allow approval of presidential appointments by a simple majority, Representative Mel Watt was confirmed and will be sworn as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Back in 02 in his district in North Carolina he pressured Freddie to dole out home loans to “Welfare Recipients.” His current plans are to relax underwriting rules so “disadvantaged” borrowers lacking credit and down payments can buy homes. You have been warned, here it comes again.

IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest. However, not one of my top twenty funds has had a percent deviation increased each week for the last two weeks. The highest ranked fund which has an increasing percent devaiation over the last two weeks is SFinancialServices, the number 23 best fund.

My current investments:
SAutomotive has a price of $55.38, a sell price $53.25, arelative rank of 58, and will be sold when I need to exchange it for another fund or it passes the sell price.
Nordic has a price of 44.50, a sell price 42.31, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.
SSoftware&ComputerServices has a price of 117.62, a sell price 111.74, a relative rank of 02, and is a buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested