Month: November 2013

Some of the 401k, 403b, etc. plans are changing for the better. HRBlock’s has a brokerage option where employees can invest in any mutual fund. I asked the custodian to tell HRB they need to add ETFs. HRB also is changing all of their funds from Fidelity to Vanguard. My feeling is that HRB has the Bogle disease – fees are the only number which counts in investing. My attitude has always been the only important number is the gain and I do not care what the fees are if I received the highest gain. The State of Florida, in their self directed retirement plans, is offering all the non-leveraged ETFs. The local school board, while offering a dozen loaded annuities and funds, also offers two noload mutual fund companies and a Roth as well as a Traditional 403b.

Investors Bisiness Daily says the Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend.” However it goes on to say “The market appears to be near a tipping point. If the indexes notch a few strong up days from here, the distribution count could shrink in a hurry. But if the indexes head south in rising volume, the uptrend has little wiggle room.” In a couple of small investment portfolios where I have a few ETFs and stocks, I have verified that there is a stop loss order for each position at 8% below the lastest high.

The sum of the deviations (1060,1031,1014) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.
The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both trends are not up – not a time to invest.
The market was up slightly, but the calculation of the deviation from an exponentially smoothed moving average requires more than a slight increase. All in all it looks like the uptrend has stalled.
Next Friday Fidelity mutual funds start their annual distributions. Unless you want to purchase more shares of the funds you own, you should instruct Fidelity to keep all distributions in cash and not reinvest. I do that and at this time would not want to buy more shares.

My current investments:
SAutomotive has a price of $56.78, a sell price $53.94, a relative rank of 12, and is a hold.
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $13.73, a sell price of $13.56, a relative rank of 77, and is a hold until I need the money to invest in a better fund or if falls a little more.
Nordic has a price of 45.17, a sell price 42.91, a relative rank of 04, and is a hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

CNBC replayed a TV show they created in 2009 called the “Bubble Decade.” If you get the opportunity, it is worth watching. One of the interviews featured Michael Wolff (journalist) and Mark Cuban(investor). Wolff said he hoped the next bubble was coming and Cuban said the next bubble was coming. Neither gave a timeframe. However, if you watch the market you can see signs that it is coming. One signs is a 3d printing stocks which doubled over the last 2 weeks and then fell by half. Look at a chart of VJET. VJET, like the other 3d printing stocks, has never had a profit.

Investors Business Daily featured an article on 19Nov called “Delta Uses Relative Strength ETFs To Beat The Market.” It featured the method Delta Investing Management uses to invest. From 03/07 through 9/13 it has had an average annual gain of 24% vs the S&P500 (with dividends) gain of 5%. The article suggested you could do the same by following the S&P500 equal weighted EFT RSP and buy when the price was above the 75 day moving average and sell when it was below. The two ETFs Delta buys are PDP and DWAS. PDP is rebalanced quarterly by investing in the 100 highest relative strength mid and large cap stocks. DWAS is rebalanced quarterly by investing in the 300 highest relative strength low cap stock.
 
The sum of the deviations (913,1060,1031) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.
The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both trends are not up – not a time to invest.

My current investments:
SAutomotive has a price of $56.44, a sell price $53.62, a relative rank of 13, and is a hold.
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $14.05, a sell price of $13.56, a relative rank of 33, and is a hold until I need the money to invest in a better fund or if falls a little more.
Nordic has a price of 44.18, a sell price 41.97, a relative rank of 10, and is a hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

Investors Business Daily after a week where the current outlook was “uptrend under pressure” changed the current outlook on Wednesday to “Uptrend resumes.” That is an indication that it the general market is trending up.

Wealthtrack is a weekly TV and web show by Consuelo Mack. Her show from 04/05/2013 (yes I am a little behind on listening to some of her shows) features Harold Evensky with a strategy to make your retirement savings last. The Employee Benefits Institute had just released a survey indicating almost 50% of workers are not confident they will have enough money for a comfortable retirement – debt is listed as the biggest problem by 55% of the workers. The show can be viewed or listen to on the web at www.wealthtrack.com. Just click on the show date where the description is “Harold Evensky: Afraid of Outliving your Retirement Savings?” The previous show with Robert Shiller is also interesting.

 The sum of the deviations (974,913,1060) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.
The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both trends are not up – not a time to invest.

My current investments:
SAutomotive has a price of $56.28, a sell price $53.47, a relative rank of 08, and is a hold.
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $14.00, a sell price of $13.56, a relative rank of 29, and is a hold until I need the money to invest in a better fund or if falls a little more
Nordic has a price of 43.90, a sell price 41.91, a relative rank of 09, and is a hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

After the market action on Thursday, Investors Business Daily changed their market outlook from “confirmed uptrend” to “uptrend under pressure.” Basically that says the trend may be changing. The prevailing opinion seems to be that as long as the market continues to respond to the federal reserve board as they print more and more money, the market will continue up.

A review of a chart of the last 12 months of the S&P500 (^gspc) on finance.yahoo.com shows a series of higher highs and higher lows as the trend continues upward. The same is true of SBiotechnology (fbiox) except the high made in early October was not exceeded by the high made in later October and the corresponding low was lower than the previous low. This may be a sign of a trend change. SBiotechnology has a corresponding potential trend change sign in June from which it recovered.

The sum of the deviations (1123,974,913) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.
The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both trends are not up – not a time to invest.

My current investments:
SAutomotive has a price of $54.76, a sell price $53.10, a relative rank of 13, and is a hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of $164.12, a sell price $169.78, and is a sell.
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $13.65, a sell price of $13.56, a relative rank of 44, and is a hold until I need the money to invest in a better fund or if falls a little more
Nordic has a price of 44.12, a sell price 41.91, a relative rank of 02, and is a hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SBiotechnology

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested

John Stossel has a weekly show on the Fox Business Network. I DVR it every week, but you can also watch it at www.foxbusiness.com/on-air/stossel. It looks like it takes about two weeks before the current episode is available on the web site. The show he presented on 10/24 featured the Federal Reserve Board. The guys who have spent 3+ trillion dollars (and continue to spend 1 trillion a year) bailing out banks (domestic and foreign), corporations, and the market without even a vote in congress. The guys who with loose money and then tight money caused the depression, with loose money caused the inflation of the 70s, with loose money caused tech boom of the 90s and the housing bust of the 00s. The guys whose loose money policies (i.e. 0% interest rates) make the poor poorer, destroy the middle class (how much are you earning on your CDs), and make the rich richer. With the 0% interest rates, it will be interesting to see which will happen first: another housing market crash, a stock market crash, a bit of extreme inflation, or maybe all 3. Since the fed was put in charge of the money supply, the value of the dollar has declined more than 95% (and they have redefined inflation 20 times). His show features excerpts from the movie “Money for Nothing.” Looks like an intereting movie.

Fidelity Nortic fund has an interesting history. If I remember correctly, about 30 years ago Fidelity started some country funds – the one I remember was the United Kingdom fund. They were not a great success and were merged out of existance. Then about 20 years ago, they did it again. Again they were merged out of existance, except for Nortic. It seems, since it was doing much better than the other country funds, the shareholders voted not to merge the fund and it is doing well again today.

The sum of the deviations (1120,1123,974) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.
The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both trends are not up – not a time to invest.

My current investments:
SAutomotive has a price of $55.33, a sell price $53.10, a relative rank of 05, and is a hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of $171.03, a sell price $169.78, a relative rank of 08, and is a hold.
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $13.69, a sell price of $13.56, a relative rank of 37, and is a hold until I need the money to invest in a better fund or if falla a little more
Nordic has a price of 43.57, a sell price 41.39, a relative rank of 02, and is a buy.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested