Month: July 2013

Investors Business Daily (IBD) presented a webinar a couple of weeks ago which is well worth watching. Most of their webinars are good, but this one covered an investment method which requires very little time. You can view the webinar at investors.com. Each evening IBD presents a IBD Market Wrap at about 7pm which you can view at their web site. It is a good daily technical review.
One of the more outspoken critics of the where the US economy is heading is Ann Barnhardt. Feel free to review any of her presentations on YouTube. One presentation, a little dated, is here.  Do not watch any of her YouTube presentations if you have a tendency to get depressed. One of her points is that the US has to keep interest rates at zero because interest payments on the national debt will collapse the nation if normal rates returned. She covers a brief review of the Cloward-Piven strategy and since the US has more people (100+ million) getting money from the US government than working, the strategy seems to be progressing.

The sum of the deviations (921,997,943) is not up for the last two weeks – not time to invest.
The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both trends are not up – not a time to buy.

My current investments:
SAirTransportation has a price of $51.13, a sell price of $48.57, a relative rank of 07, and is a hold.
SAutomotive has a price of $51.30, a sell price $48.89, a relative rank of 02, and is a hold.
SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $64.47, a sell price $61.27, a relative rank of 10 and is a hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of $164.23, a sell price 156.07, a relative rank of 01 and is hold.
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 12.98. a sell price 12.75, a relative rank of 05 and hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

So I was wandering through www.fidelity.com looking for it to give me some short term performance on Fidelity funds. However, Fidelity’s short term is one year (not counting year to date which is not a fixed time frame). Fidelity has 262 Fidelity funds open to new investors. When you sort them down by the one year return through 6/30/13 it says you should have invested in Select Automotive Portfolio back on 6/30/12 and you would be up 47.01% Nothing like hindsight. However if you are looking for some sort of longer term analysis try this link which I’ve sorted by 1 year return.  While I am always happy when the market is going up and I am fully invested, my obvious concern is what next. Paul B. Farrell is a writer for www.marketwatch.com. His 17Jul13 commentary is titled “Critical Warning No. 17: Dow 5,000, crash of 65%”. You can read it here. I read a couple of the other 17 he lists in the article and felt the one by Stockman was very interesting.
When you get depressed by all of Farrell’s commentary, you may enjoy a commentary by another Marketwatch writer – Jennifer Waters. You can read it here.

The sum of the deviations (577,921,997) is up for the last two weeks – time to invest.
The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing time to invest. Both trends are up – time to buy. However, I am fully invested so have will buy nothing.

My current investments:
SAirTransportation has a price of $50.96, a sell price of $48.41, a relative rank of 09, and is a hold. 
SAutomotive has a price of $51.46, a sell price $48.89, a relative rank of 02, and is a hold.
SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $64.29, a sell price $61.08, a relative rank of 11 and is a hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of $164.28, a sell price 156.07, a relative rank of 03 and is hold.
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 13.42. a sell price 12.75, a relative rank of 01 and hold.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

The Federal Reserves Board’s mandates are low unemployment and low inflation. So the question is, when viewing their actions, what are they accomplishing. http://www.zerohedge.com/node/476290 Just in case you have never followed Rick Santelli, several years ago (back in 2009) in one of his comments provided one of the sparks to start the Tea Party – he is really correct and right on target. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zp-Jw-5Kx8k Take a look at some of his other youtube comments. He tells it like it is.

The sum of the deviations (449,577,921) is up for the last two weeks – time to invest.
The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing time to invest. Both trends are up – time to buy. SBiotechnology is #01 and SAutomotive is #02 and I own both. JapanSmallerCompanies is #03 and its deviation has been increasing for the last 2 weeks so is a buy. I probably should not have sold it in May, but when a fund starts to fall I never know if it is going to continue or bounce back

My current investments:
SAirTransportation has a price of $49.10, a sell price of $46.65, a relative rank of 37, and is a hold until if falls below the sell price or I need to sell it to buy something else.
SAutomotive has a price of $51.01, a sell price $48.46, a relative rank of 02, and is a hold.
SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $63.28, a sell price $60.12, a relative rank of 14 and is a hold.
SBiotechnology has a price of $161.59, a sell price 153.61, a relative rank of 01 and is hold.
JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of 13.11. a sell price TBD, a relative rank of 03 and is a buy in IRA#2.

My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Buy JapanSmallerCompanies

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested

Last week on my way to Disney, I was listening to an early June Gabriel Wisdom show interview with Larry Pesavento of www.tradingtutor.com. Pesavento called the 08 market decline a week or two before it happened saying his technical indicators indicated a severe decline happening almost immediately. On this latest interview he said his indicators were more negative than they were in 08 and the market would go lower in this crash. Another interview on a later show was with Bennett McDowell of www.traderscoach.com. His indicators show the DJIA will increase within the next one – two years to at least 18k and possibly 21k. Now that you know exactly where the market is headed, you can invest accordingly.

 

My indicators say it is time to buy something. Investors business daily says the market is in correction. The S&P500, DJIA, Nasdaqcomposite, and almost every other index is above its 50 day moving average and the going up.

 

The sum of the deviations (328,449,577) is up for the last two weeks – time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both trends are up – time to buy. SAutomotive is #01 and I own it in IRA#2 but it is a buy in IRA#1. JapanSmallerCompanies is #02 but its deviation has not been increasing for the last 2 weeks so it is not a buy. SBiotechnology is #03 and is a buy in IRA#2.

 

My current investments:

SAirTransportation has a price of $48.13, a sell price of $46.34, a relative rank of 21, and is a hold until if falls below the sell price or I need to sell it to buy something else.

SAutomotive has a price of $49.58, a sell price $47.10, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold in IRA#2 and a buy in IRA#1.

SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $61.48, a sell price $59.58, a relative rank of 15 and is a hold.

SBiotechnology has a price of $150.15, a sell price TBD, a relative rank of 03 and is a buy in IRA#2.

 

My portfolio changes this weekend:

IRA #1 – Buy SAutomotive

IRA #2 – Buy SBiotechnology

 

My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes

IRA #1  –  100% invested

IRA #2  –   80% invested