Month: June 2013

James Lange is a lawyer and CPA in Pittsburgh. I have listened to his shows off and on for several years. Back in 2010 I even paid his firm for some Roth IRA – tax analysis. Anyway he has just completed his 100th radio show and put together the best of the first 99 shows for his 100th show. You can listen to it at https://www.retiresecure.com/radioshow/100LMH.mp3.

It is the end of a quarter and you are a fund manager. Since you have a couple of million in cash, should you buy a new stock and hope it goes up, or should you put a couple of million more of a stock you own with the understanding that if your purchase makes the stock go up, not only do you make money on your new investment, but the shares you own also increase in value. Remember you have to produce a quarterly report on how well your fund performed and which scenario will make you look better. It happens every quarter, especially when the market has been going down, and it is called window dressing.

The other market motivating action is that every fed official available has been indicating no higher interest rates, no cut in fed stimulus. 

 

The sum of the deviations (691,328,449) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is below its 50 day moving average and the average is decreasing – Not time to invest. Both trends are not up so it is not a time to invest.

 

My current investments:

SAirTransportation has a price of $47.59, a sell price of $46.34, a relative rank of 15, and is a hold.

SAutomotive has a price of $48.05, a sell price $45.67, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.

SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $60.49, a sell price $59.58, a relative rank of 08 and is a hold.

 

My portfolio changes this weekend:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – None

Chuck Jaffee writes for Marketwatch (www.marketwatch.com/journalists/chuck_jaffee) and has an internet radio show call MoneyLife(www.monelifeshow.com). The show is available on the internet and also as podcasts which the podcast app on my Iphone automatically downloads for me. A couple of weeks ago he featured Kathy Kristof who writes for Kiplinger and an article she co-wrote called “45 ideas for getting more yield” (http://www.kiplinger.com/article/investing/T052-C000-S002-45-ideas-for-getting-more-yield.html). The article even has 10 investment ideas that yield 10%+ – a greater yield at greater risk.

Last week I failed to update the weekly mutual fund numbers but they are correct this week – but as always if you notice a problem, let me know.

 

The sum of the deviations (964,841,691) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest.

Both trends are not up so it is not a time to invest.

 

My current investments:

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $55.08, a sell price of $54.85, a relative rank of 38, and is a hold until it falls another 0.41% or I need the money to buy a better fund.

SAirTransportation has a price of $48.05, a sell price of $46.34, a relative rank of 10, and is a hold.

SAutomotive has a price of $47.59, a sell price $45.67, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.

SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $61.70, a sell price $59.58, a relative rank of 04 and is a hold.

 

My portfolio changes this weekend:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – None

So it happened again. On Wed about 2PM the Federal Reserve Board (FED) suggested that sometime in the future they may decrease (taper) their monthly bond purchase of 85B. The market started down, tanked on Thursday, and started down on Friday. About 12PM the FED came out and said the future may not be as good as we thought so taper may not take place and the decline stopped. Last September when the market started down, the FED revived it by deciding to double their bond buying to 85B. Perhaps by next month the FED will be buying 170B in bonds per month. All this printing of money (the FED now has 3T+ in bonds) is the only thing keeping the market going.

 

The sum of the deviations (841,691,328) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is below its 50 day moving average and the average is decreasing – Not time to invest. Both trends are not up so it is not a time to invest.

 

My current investments:

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $52.73, a sell price of $54.85, and I am selling it.

SAirTransportation has a price of $46.98, a sell price of $46.34, a relative rank of 09, and is a hold.

SAutomotive has a price of $46.64, a sell price $45.67, a relative rank of 02, and is a hold.

SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $58.98, a sell price $59.58, a relative rank of 05 and is a hold.

 

My portfolio changes this weekend:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – Sell SConstruction&Housing

Investors Business Daily still says the market “uptrend under pressure.” IBD indicates a couple of negatives are market up, but on declining volume and there have been 6 distribution days for the S&P 500 and 4 for the Nasdaq. That number of distribution days often leads to a declining market.

Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Federal Reserve, who brought us the housing crisis with his excessively low interest, made a comment that “the sooner we come to grips with this excessive level of assets on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve,… the better.” He continued to indicate it would nice to taper down the assets but the market may not give us the leeway to do what we would like. My view of the Federal Reserve asset purchases, now at 85B per month, is sort of like the off book debt which ENRON used so “well” many years ago. The 3.4T is a lot of off the book debt – ENRON called their off the book debt “special purpose entities”.

 

The sum of the deviations (1038,964,841) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both trends are not up so it is not a time to invest.

 

My current investments:

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $55.58, a sell price of $54.85, a relative rank of 33, and is a hold until it falls another 1.33% or I need the money to buy a better fund.

SAirTransportation has a price of $48.05, a sell price of $46.34, a relative rank of 17, and is a hold.

SAutomotive has a price of $47.54, a sell price $45.67, a relative rank of 02, and is a hold.

SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $62.53, a sell price $59.58, a relative rank of 03 and is a hold.

 

My portfolio changes this weekend:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – None