Month: May 2013

Investors Business Daily now says the market “uptrend under pressure.” That is their way of saying it may not be time to sell, but it is not a time to buy. One of the ETFs to watch is TBT. TBT increases with interest rates on 20+ year treasury bonds. It is up 16% over the last month. While not at a new high, if the trend continues the FED will have to start spending more than 85B per month buying bonds or the interest rate on the US debt will continue to go up.

My purchase of JapanSmallerCompanies in my IRA #2 sure did not turn out well. I lost 8.5% on that investment. In my IRA#1 I made 12% on that investment. Timing is sure important in investments. I hope none of you got a call from Fidelity on that sale. My wife said she did and when the representative finally quit ranting about a round turn trade in less than 30 days the representative ended the call. When I get those calls, I always point out that if Fidelity knew how to manage money, the fund would have not gone down thus I would not have sold and I am not interested in paying Fidelity management fees to lose my money.

 

The sum of the deviations (1306,1038,964) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both trends are not up so it is not a time to invest.

 

My current investments:

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $56.28, a sell price of $54.85, a relative rank of 08, and is a hold.

SAirTransportation has a price of $47.68, a sell price of $46.34, a relative rank of 18, and is a hold.

SAutomotive has a price of $47.16, a sell price $45.67, a relative rank of 02, and is a hold.

SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $62.72, a sell price $59.58, a relative rank of 03 and is a hold.

 

My portfolio changes this weekend:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – None

On Wednesday the fed chief suggested they may end quantitative easing soon and stop buying $85b in bonds each month so the market decided to go down. On Thursday more fed officials talked and suggest it would really not be very soon and the market started to recovered. There should not be any doubt that the $85b the fed is printing each month is keeping the market going.

Investors Business Daily says the market is still in a confirmed uptrend. They do point out that there has been 2 recent distribution days for the S&P500 and Nasdaq. The market trend will change after 4 to 5 distribution days over the last 4 to 5 weeks. They use distribution days (market down and volume up) as a sign the big investors are selling.

 

The sum of the deviations (1202,1306,1038) is not up for the last two weeks – not a time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Both trends are not up so it is not a time to invest. Last week 85 funds of the ~130 I follow qualified as a buy – improving deviation for the last 2 weeks. This week 3 funds are qualified buys. JapanSmallerCompanies fell 9%+ and is a sell. It has a short term redemption fee of 1.5%, however since it can drop 2%+ in a day (Friday), I am going to sell and pay the redemption fee.

 

My current investments:

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $57.40, a sell price of $54.85, a relative rank of 05, and is a hold.

SAirTransportation has a price of $48.39, a sell price of $46.34, a relative rank of 08, and is a hold.

SAutomotive has a price of $46.90, a sell price $45.67, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold.

JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $12.25, a sell price $12.82, a relative rank of 03, and is a sell in my IRA#1 and a sell in my IRA#2.

SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $62.58, a sell price $54.85, a relative rank of 02 and is a buy for my IRA#2.

 

My portfolio changes this weekend:

IRA #1 – Sell JapanSmallerCompanies

IRA #2 – Sell JapanSmallerCompanies

One of the more interesting interviews on the Gabriel Wisdom show was with John Del Veccho author of “What’s Behind The Numbers?” and manager of the FLAG ETF – www.flagetf.com. He takes a forensic accounting look at the numbers for the 500 largest capitalization companies ranks them with from A to F. He then builds a portfolio in which 40% are A, 20% are B, 20% are C, and 20% are D and 0% are F. Monthly he rebalances the funds assets based on the latest ranking. The current investments are show on the web site. I noticed that HRB, DIS and UTC are both not in the list of his investments. The fund is up about 12% this year.

 

The sum of the deviations (1115,1202,1306) is up for the last two weeks – time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. SmallCapDiscovery is not and the top 20 funds, so I am selling it and investing in SBrokerage&InvestmentMgmt the #04 fund. I own the #01 and #02 funds andSBiotechnology is the #03 fund except its deviation from its 39 week exponentially smoothed average has not been up 2 weeks in a row.

 

My current investments:

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $57.74, a sell price of $54.85, a relative rank of 07, and is a hold.

SAirTransportation has a price of $48.78, a sell price of $46.34, a relative rank of 10, and is a hold.

SmallCapDiscovery has a price of $28.71, a sell price of $27.27, a relative rank of 21, and I am selling it to buySBrokerage&InvestmentMgmt.

SAutomotive has a price of $48.07, a sell price $45.67, a relative rank of 02, and is a hold.,

JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $13.49, a sell price $12.82, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold in my IRA#1 and a hold in my IRA#2.

SBrokerage&InvestmentMgnt has a price of $63.59, a sell price TBD, a relative rank of 04 and is a buy for my IRA#2.

 

My portfolio changes this weekend:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – Exchange the balance of my SmallCapDiscover fund for a new investment in SBrokerage&InvestmentMgmt.

WealthTrack, a show you can watch on PBS or ITunes, featured Ben Inker from GMO on the 20Apr show. GMO has a history of being right – Japan in the 80s, tech wreck in the late 90s, housing in the early 00s, market low in 2009 – and now is warning about perils in the bond market. Investors Business Daily says the current outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend.”

 

The sum of the deviations (900,1115,1202) is up for the last two weeks – time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Last week I had an incorrect quote for SmallCapValue and it was not the #04 fund – it was 35. It improved this week to #30. However it is not in the top 20 and it is a buy week, so I will be selling it and buying SAutomotive the #03 fund. SBiotechnology is the #02 fund except its deviation from its 39 week exponentially smoothed average is declining.

 

My current investments:

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $56.34, a sell price of $53.52, a relative rank of 12, and is a hold.

SAirTransportation has a price of $47.86, a sell price of $45.47, a relative rank of 13, and is a hold.

SmallCapDiscovery has a price of $28.08, a sell price of $26.68, a relative rank of 21,  and is a hold until it falls below the sell price or I need to sell it to buy a better fund.

SmallCapValue has a price of $18.97, a sell price $18.02, a relative rank of 30, and I will be selling it to purchase SAutomotive.

JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $13.29, a sell price $12.63, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold in my IRA#1 and a hold in my IRA#2.

SAutomotive has a price of $46.09, a sell price TBD, a relative rank of 03 and is a buy for my IRA#2.

 

My portfolio changes this weekend:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – Exchange the balance of my SmallCapValue fund for a new investment in SAutomotive.

This last week Investors Business Daily said the “uptrend confirmed”. It was a switch from “market in correction” a week ago. Since 1950 on average between May 1 and Oct 31 the Dow Jones Industrial Average averaged a gain of 0.3% while between Nov 01 and Apr 30 it averaged 7.5%. The sell in “May and go away” period is a hard time to make money. However the Federal Reserve Board is buying $3B worth of investments a day so the market will probably continue up regardless of the month.

 

Stossel presents an interesting weekly program on Fox Business News. Last week he covered the Surgical Center of Oklahoma which posts its complete prices online. When it first started, Canada was the home of most of the patients but now patients come from all over the US. The director pointed out that some potential patients have used the online pricing guide to get the same price in their home hospital. Seems the prices at most hospitals are 5 to 6 times higher than at the Surgical Center of Oklahoma. There are a couple of interesting videos on the center on YouTube.

 

The sum of the deviations (674,900,1115) is up for the last two weeks – time to invest.

The DJ Wilshire 5000 index is above its 50 day moving average and the average is increasing – time to invest. Last week there were 5 funds with increasing two week deviations out of the 137 Fidelity funds I follow. I use the increasing two week deviation as one of the criteria when I buy a fund. This week only 16 funds do not have increasing two week deviations.

 

My current investments:

SConstruction&Housing has a price of $54.92, a sell price of $52.17, a relative rank of 17, and is a hold.

SAirTransportation has a price of $47.54, a sell price of $45.16, a relative rank of 12, and is a hold.

SmallCapDiscovery has a price of $27.61, a sell price of $26.48, a relative rank of 30,  and is a hold until it falls below the sell price or I need to sell it to buy a better fund.

SmallCapValue has a price of $19.71, a sell price $18.72, a relative rank of 04, and is a hold.

JapanSmallerCompanies has a price of $13.33, a sell price $12.66, a relative rank of 01, and is a hold in my IRA#1 and a buy in my IRA#2.

 

My portfolio changes this weekend:

IRA #1 – None

IRA #2 – Invest 20% in JapanSmallerCompanies