A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 822, 868, and now 1004 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 09, 08, and now 60.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 5% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 7% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
A time to buy – Sum of all deviations is up 2 weeks in a row.
Tom McClellan of McClellan Financial Publications sends out a email with a free chart each week of that he thinks is interesting. On 1/17 his chart was “SPY Number of Shares Outstanding Continuing to Rise.” “This week’s chart shows an interesting representation of bullish trader sentiment. The number of SPY shares outstanding is above its upper 50-1 Bollinger Band, and continuing to rise. Check out the other instances when this indicator has gone above that upper 50-1 band. You will notice that all of them in this chart except one (12/19) were associated with meaningful tops leading to noticeable corrections.”
IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 13.02, a sell price 12.37, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 13.02, a sell price 12.37, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SWireless has a price of 11.66, a sell price 11.08, a rank of 08, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
SAutomotive has a price of 37.76, a sell price 35.87, a rank of 23, and is a sell. (ETF – RGI, EXI)
SHealthCareServices has a price of 107.76, a sell price 102.37, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – GNOM, BBC)
SComputers has a price of 89.91, a sell price 85.41, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – SNSR, SMH)
STechnology has a price of 21.19. a sell price TBD, a rank of 03, and is a buy. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – Sell SAutomotive, buy STechnology
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
20.95 01-31 FSELX 13.02 SSemiconductors NO
20.11 02-10 FDCPX 89.91 SComputers YES
18.41 03-14 FSPTX 21.19 STechnology YES
16.81 04-06 FHKCX 41.78 ChinaRegion YES
15.58 05-09 FPHAX 24.08 SPharmaceuticals YES
14.73 06-10 FOCPX 13.50 OTCPortfolio YES
14.71 07-06 FSEAX 48.05 EmergingAsia YES
14.38 08-23 FWRLX 11.66 SWireless YES
14.19 09-02 FSCSX 21.12 SSoftware&ITServices YES
13.97 10-09 FBIOX 22.45 SBiotechnology YES
13.61 11-03 FTRNX 114.07 Trend YES
13.54 12-10 FSHCX 107.76 SHealthCareServices YES
13.21 13-05 FNCMX 117.81 NasdaqCompositeIndex YES
13.02 14-02 FBGRX 114.33 BlueChipGrowth YES
12.91 15-01 FBSOX 80.29 SITServices YES
12.84 16-01 FSLBX 84.66 SBrokerage&InvestmentManagement YES
12.78 17-02 FCPGX 28.61 SmallCapGrowth YES
12.69 18-01 FFIDX 53.20 Fidelity YES
12.68 19-05 FEMKX 36.31 EmergingMarkets YES
11.98 20-05 FSPHX 29.37 SHealthCare YES
Last Week
18.82 01-09 FDCPX 88.00 SComputers NO
18.64 02-30 FSELX 12.63 SSemiconductors NO
16.24 03-13 FSPTX 20.60 STechnology NO
15.68 04-05 FHKCX 41.01 ChinaRegion YES
14.07 05-08 FPHAX 23.57 SPharmaceuticals NO
13.22 06-05 FSEAX 47.06 EmergingAsia YES
13.07 07-08 FBIOX 22.11 SBiotechnology NO
13.05 08-09 FOCPX 13.20 OTCPortfolio NO
12.73 09-09 FSHCX 106.22 SHealthCareServices NO
12.29 10-22 FWRLX 11.36 SWireless NO
12.03 11-02 FTRNX 111.68 Trend NO
11.86 12-06 FSESX 24.24 SEnergyServices NO
11.75 13-04 FEMKX 35.77 EmergingMarkets NO
11.73 14-01 FSCSX 20.51 SSoftware&ITServices NO
11.54 15-04 FSPHX 29.07 SHealthCare NO
11.51 16-04 FNCMX 115.23 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
11.12 17-01 FBGRX 111.64 BlueChipGrowth NO
11.11 18-01 FPBFX 35.23 PacificBasin NO
10.78 19-05 FLATX 29.13 LatinAmerica NO
10.69 20-01 FCPGX 27.89 SmallCapGrowth NO
It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(20Jan20) from SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19)
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(09Dec19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(04Nov19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(16Dec19) From SConstructionandHousing(FSHOX)(16Sep19)
20% – SSemiconductors(09Sep19) from Cash(19Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%