Here is an online report from 20Jan to review.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investing-legend-jim-rogers-says-dump-stocks-if-trump-launches-trade-war-2017-01-20
A couple of weeks ago I spent some time in a presentation from a very successful portfolio manager from my local bank. Basically his group produces a portfolio of several funds for you based on your goals and risk tolerance. Because of the diversification of his portfolio investments he generally has some investments going up and some not. My only question was how does he manage risk, when does he sell. He indicated he does not sell, only buys funds which go down less. I told him I did not want to be invested in down market.
That is my problem with every investment manager. There are some independent investment managers which will get you out of a down market, but most investment managers with major firms will never sell. I have tried over the last 20 years, investing some money with 7 different investment managers under the belief that a professional manager can do better than I, an amateur, can do. They all did worse during the years they had my investments.
Remember professional managers generally get 1%+/- fee of your balance a year – regardless of you gain or loss, you invest in stocks or stay in cash. It is still 1%+/- fee of the balance
If you had invested in RSP (the S&P 500 index equal weighted ETF – (SPY is the S&P500 index capitalization weighted ETF)) when it moved above the 200 day moving average and sold when it declined below it, you would have been out of the market from Aug 2015 and back in in Mar 2016. Thus you would have avoided the down turn in 2015 and bad start of 2016 and would have ended 16 with a gain of about 14%.
Investing in DIA (the Dow Jones Industrial Index ETF) had about the same results with a 16% gain.
So if you into a simpler way to invest, I suggest using the RSP and the 200 day moving average. Both Finance.yahoo.com and stockcharts.com will give you the quotes and the averages. Stockcharts.com is a little more accurate.
“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Friday, 13Jan, the short term outlook is bearish, intermediate term is neutral, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 20Jan, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term is neutral to bearish, long term outlook bullish.
My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 87.97, 50 day MA of 86.60, a 200 day MA of 82.47, and a 7% stop loss is 82.18. This is not an investment to buy and hold.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 31.66, a sell price 31.13, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.51)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 97.02, a sell price 93.08, a rank of 05, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 68.61)
STransportation has a price of 92.21, a sell price 88.92, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 29.55, a sell price 28.93, a rank of 07, and is a hold. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 22.06)
SBiotechnology has a price of 183.75, a sell price 174.56, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 60.45)
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
14.84 01-08 FSESX 57.05 SEnergyService
14.67 02-14 FSRBX 31.66 SBanking
13.27 03-04 FBIOX 183.75 SBiotechnology
12.14 04-11 FARNX 13.34 EventDrivenOpportunities
11.89 05-29 FSELX 97.02 SSemiconductors
11.72 06-12 FSRFX 92.21 STransportation
10.41 07-10 FSNGX 29.55 SNaturalGas
10.36 08-11 FSHCX 85.18 SHealthCareServices
9.99 09-03 FFGCX 11.74 GlobalCommodity Stock
9.98 10-12 FSAIX 74.67 SAirTransportation
9.83 11-11 FIDSX 97.91 SFinancialServices
9.43 12-11 FSLBX 67.79 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
8.81 13-10 FCPEX 14.04 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
8.45 14-01 FSAVX 36.75 SAutomotive
8.42 15-06 FCYIX 32.72 SIndustrials
8.04 16-02 FEMEX 8.52 EmergingEMEA
7.99 17-11 FSVLX 13.40 SConsumerFinance
7.92 18-01 FSPCX 77.65 SInsurance
7.92 19-02 FSTCX 71.02 STelecommunications
7.91 20-01 FSCHX 150.37 SChemicals
Last week:
18.82 01-13 FSRBX 32.55 SBanking
16.74 02-03 FBIOX 188.06 SBiotechnology Yes
15.87 03-07 FSESX 57.11 SEnergyService
14.81 04-10 FARNX 13.57 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
13.70 05-28 FSELX 97.98 SSemiconductors
12.33 06-10 FIDSX 99.62 SFinancialServices
12.30 07-10 FSLBX 69.22 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
11.96 08-11 FSRFX 91.83 STransportation Yes
11.85 09-10 FSHCX 85.86 SHealthCareServices Yes
11.73 10-09 FSNGX 29.74 SNaturalGas
11.58 11-09 FCPEX 14.33 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
11.52 12-11 FSAIX 75.32 SAirTransportation
10.85 13-02 FFGCX 11.77 GlobalCommodity Stock Yes
9.91 14-10 FSVLX 13.58 SConsumerFinance
9.26 15-01 FEMEX 8.58 EmergingEMEA Yes
9.48 15-01 FSCHX 151.93 SChemicals Yes
9.20 17-05 FCYIX 32.81 SIndustrials
9.18 18-02 FLCSX 30.04 LargeCapStock
8.72 19-01 FDSCX 26.56 StockSelectorSmallCap
8.61 20-01 FSTCX 71.18 STelecommunications
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Nov16 1m+1% 3m-6% 6m-7% 12m+15% 24m+5% 36m+9% 60m52% 120m-5%
Oct16 1m-8% 3m-6% 6m-1% 12m+10% 24m+6% 36m+11% 60m44% 120m-1%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Nov16 1m+3% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+4% 24m+7% 36m+6% 60m+19% 120m+21%
Oct16 1m-5% 3m-6% 6m+4% 12m+1% 24m+7% 36m+4% 60m+15% 120m+17%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%