One of the charts I review is the percent of Nasdaq stocks whose price is above their 50 day average. This week the number closed at 47.15% indicating more than half of Nasdaq stocks are below their 50 day average. The same number for the New York Stock Exchange at 46.24%. The 50 day average of this number for both exchanges has been declining from about 60% to 50% over the last 6 months. Not a positive sign.
TNA – Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3X ETF – represents the strength of the smaller capitalization stock stocks stocks while UPRO – ProShares UltraPro S&P500 ETF – represents the strength of the 500 largest capitalization stocks. UPRO is up 7.97% while TNA is down 10.88% over the last 3 months. Thus, while the largest stocks are going up, the smaller stocks are going down. A long term up market requires the participation of all stocks not just the largest.
After Monday’s market decline IBD changed to “Uptrend Under pressure” – not a good sign. After Thursdays market increase IBD changed to “Confirmed Uptrend.” The Nasdaq has 5 distribution days and S&P 500 has 3. Not a good sign but for now the uptrend continues.
IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Confirmed Uptrend” – time to invest.
Out of the 130 Fidelity funds I follow, only SBanking #56, SDefense&Aerospace #82, and SPharmaceuticals #04 have an increasing deviation from their moving average over the last two weeks which I require before I invest.
My current investments:
SBiotechnology has a price of 217.37 a sell price 207.96, a rank of 02, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 80.63, a sell price 76.99, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 221.81, a sell price 210.72, a rank of 01, and is a Hold.
SUtilities has a price of 75.45, a sell price 71.68, a rank of 54, and is a Hold until something better is a buy or it drops below its sell line.
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 21.79, a sell price TBD, a rank of 04, and is a Buy.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Invest 20% in SPharmaceuticals
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested