Not a good week, not a real bad week. The sum of all the deviations has been 241, -157, and now -155 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 01, 00, and now 00.
Statistically a 39 week exponentially smoothed moving average would decrease if positive or increase if negative by about 5%. Thus the change this week from -157 to -155 does not provide an indication that the market is getting better. In addition the fund I removed this week had a -7 deviation and was replaced by a fund with a -1 deviation. No real market improvement based on this indicator.
It is interesting that in January the sum of all the deviations was over 1000. It has been a rather big decline.
Gary Kaltbaum on his 6pm radio show keeps pointing out that any market day which starts out up and declines at the end of the day is a negative indication of what the bigger portfolios managers are doing by selling.
Wealthtrack, the weekly market show, featured James Grant on interest rates. He points out that with interest rates just up a point or two from a excessive period of the lowest interest rates in 3000 year, there are currently 30% of the Russell 2000 index which are not making a profit. His best investment idea is gold until the market falls and then buy bonds which will be selling for 30 and 40 cents on the dollar.
IRA#1
None
IRA#2
STransportation has a price of 98.30, a sell price 101.50, a rank of 49, and is a hold. (ETF – IYT stopped out 04Oct, XTN stopped out on 01Oct)
STransportation has not been owned for 30 days. Next week I can sell if it does not improve.
My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
8.41 01-19 FSHCX 104.33 SHealthCareServices
6.07 02-03 FSUTX 90.35 SUtilities
5.06 03-02 FIUIX 27.50 TelecomandUtilities
4.56 04-03 FSTCX 59.86 STelecommunications
2.74 07-01 FPHAX 20.88 SPharmaceuticals
3.76 07-02 FBMPX 78.80 SMultimedia
3.58 08-02 FLATX 21.98 LatinAmerica
2.67 08-19 FSPHX 25.47 SHealthCare
2.65 09-02 FWRLX 10.48 SWireless
2.58 10-13 FSMEX 51.95 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
2.22 11-41 FBSOX 62.50 SITServices
1.91 12-02 FRIFX 11.68 RealEstateIncome
1.67 13-28 FTQGX 25.81 FocusedStock
1.65 14-02 FGRTX 16.45 MegaCapStock
1.49 15-01 FDGFX 28.73 DividendGrowth
1.49 16-06 FDCPX 96.76 SComputers
1.48 17-01 FEXPX 20.30 Export&Multinational
1.41 18-02 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
1.40 19-01 FDFAX 80.65 SConsumerStaples
1.22 20-01 FGRIX 38.59 Growth&Income
Last Week
7.58 01-18 FSHCX 103.07 SHealthCareServices
3.86 02-12 FSMEX 52.53 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
3.85 03-02 FSUTX 88.18 SUtilities
3.72 04-01 FLATX 21.97 LatinAmerica
3.33 05-48 FSRPX 15.55 SRetailing
3.15 06-01 FIUIX 26.93 TelecomandUtilities
2.59 07-02 FSTCX 58.59 STelecommunications
2.04 08-18 FSPHX 25.28 SHealthCare
2.03 09-27 FTQGX 25.88 FocusedStock
1.77 10-40 FBSOX 62.15 SITServices
1.71 11-01 FWRLX 10.37 SWireless
1.59 12-01 FBMPX 77.00 SMultimedia
1.58 13-01 FCONX 10.04 ConservativeIncomeBond
1.54 14-14 FSUIX 14.63 LargeCapGrowthIndex – Inv
1.39 15-05 FDCPX 96.59 SComputers
1.06 16-01 FGRTX 16.34 MegaCapStock
1.06 17-38 FSCSX 18.51 SSoftware&ITServices
1.05 18-01 FRIFX 11.57 RealEstateIncome
0.99 19-01 FLPSX 51.66 Low-Priced Stock
0.74 20-01 FBGRX 94.45 BlueChipGrowth
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Aug18 1m+6% 3m+1% 6m+4% 12m+12% 24m+22% 36m+49% 60m+57% 120m+9%
Jul18 1m-2% 3m-2% 6m-7% 12m+10% 24m+16% 36m+17% 60m+47% 120m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)(02Apr18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SITServices(FBSOX)(14May18)
Aug18 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+7% 24m+18% 36m+25% 60m+29% 120m+44%
Jul18 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-3% 12m+6% 24m+11% 36m+13% 60m+19% 120m+40%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%