Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 707, 730, and now 669 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 80, 53, and now 17.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, and QQQ are above their 200 day moving averages. IWM is not.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy.
Ken Fisher, a billionaire investor, was on the Neil Cavuto show on 17Apr.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4Brk4uJqR0
He thinks we will have a continuing bull market. In talking about a melt up, which some are suggesting, Fisher quoted Sir John Templeton “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”
He says we are clearly not euphoric yet.
IRA#1
ChinaRegion has a price of 36.30, a sell price 34.49, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 68.31, a sell price 65.13, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 18.27, a sell price 18.27, a rank of 97, and is a SELL. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.00, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 33, and is a for now. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
ChinaRegion has a price of 36.30, a sell price 34.49, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – CNXT, ASHS)
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.78, a sell price 10.24, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, XSD)
My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SGold
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund
symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
16.93 01-03 FSELX 10.78 SSemiconductors Yes
13.59 02-09 FSPTX 16.91 STechnology Yes
12.94 03-12 FHKCX 36.30 ChinaRegion
12.44 04-15 FBSOX 68.31 SITServices
12.10 05-08 FSEAX 44.56 EmergingAsia Yes
11.19 06-02 FSRPX 16.10 SRetailing Yes
10.97 07-07 FOCPX 12.14 OTCPortfolio
10.91 08-02 FSCPX 47.06 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
10.63 09-02 FSHOX 56.89 SConstructionandHousing
10.59 10-01 FDCPX 75.57 SComputers Yes
10.38 11-02 FSELX 25.92 SEnvironment&AlternativeEnergy Yes
10.31 12-07 FBMPX 62.05 SCommunicationServices
10.15 13-10 FSDCX 42.18 SCommunicationsEquipment
10.06 14-08 FSCSX 17.85 SSoftware&ITServices
9.94 15-01 FIGFX 14.40 InternationalGrowth Yes
9.91 16-04 FSVLX 16.48 SConsumerFinance
9.25 17-01 FCYIX 34.94 SIndustrials
9.22 18-02 FSNGX 22.00 SNaturalGas
9.04 19-01 FDLSX 15.42 SLeisure
8.95 20-06 FTQGX 24.67 FocusedStock
Last Week
13.54 01-14 FBSOX 68.56 SITServices
13.53 02-02 FSELX 10.37 SSemiconductors Yes
13.49 03-11 FHKCX 36.23 ChinaRegion
13.13 04-08 FSPTX 16.72 STechnology Yes
12.39 05-09 FSDCX 42.20 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
11.91 06-07 FSEAX 44.20 EmergingAsia Yes
11.40 07-01 FSHOX 56.97 SConstructionandHousing
10.97 08-06 FOCPX 12.07 OTCPortfolio
10.88 09-01 FSRPX 15.96 SRetailing Yes
10.88 10-06 FBMPX 62.12 SCommunicationServices Yes
10.85 11-01 FSNGX 22.22 SNaturalGas Yes
10.70 12-07 FSCSX 17.87 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
10.43 13-01 FSCPX 46.59 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
10.22 14-03 FSVLX 16.44 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.96 15-01 FSELX 25.68 SEnvironment&AlternativeEnergy
9.65 16-05 FTQGX 24.71 FocusedStock
9.58 17-03 FSLSX 36.99 ValueStrategies Yes
9.53 18-05 FDSVX 37.15 Growth Discovery Yes
9.49 19-04 FSPGX 15.52 LargeCapGrowthIndex Yes
9.27 20-02 FSAIX 76.29 SAirTransportation Yes
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
Feb19 1m-4% 3m-8% 6m-13% 12m-8% 24m+3% 36m+41% 60m+19% 120m+8%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(22Apr19) from SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(15Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19) from Cash(11Mar19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
Feb19 1m+1% 3m+0% 6m-7% 12m-4% 24m+2% 36m+24% 60m+12% 120m+37%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%
ETFs
PTNQ Feb19 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-9% 12m+2%
QQQ Feb19 1m+3% 3m+3% 6m-7% 12m+4%