Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 1004, 818, and now 521 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 60, 04, and now 01.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 0% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 2% below its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.
The market seems to have evaluated the coronavirus impact on world business and it is not good. The closing of cities in China, businesses, and restrictions on travel has impacted business world wide. This may be the black swan which ends the current bull market.
PTNQ is still 12% above its 200 day moving average at which point it will start converting to T-Bill investments. It is even 3% above its 50 day moving average. It is also down 3% from its peak price which was on 01/24.
IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.24, a sell price 12.45, a rank of 03, and is a SELL. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.24, a sell price 12.45, a rank of 03, and is a SELL. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SWireless has a price of 11.22, a sell price 11.08, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
SHealthCareServices has a price of 100.86, a sell price 102.37, a rank of 42, and is a SELL. (ETF – GNOM, BBC)
SComputers has a price of 84.77, a sell price 85.41, a rank of 04, and is a SELL. (ETF – SNSR, SMH)
STechnology has a price of 20.78. a sell price 20.13, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – sell SSemiconductors
IRA #2 – sell SSemiconductors, SHealthCareServices,s ell SComputers
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
14.21 01-16 FSPTX 20.78 STechnology NO
11.88 02-04 FSCSX 20.97 SSoftware&ITServices NO
11.79 03-33 FSELX 12.24 SSemiconductors NO
11.46 04-12 FDCPX 84.77 SComputers NO
11.13 05-02 FSAGX 24.45 SGold NO
10.08 06-12 FOCPX 13.11 OTCPortfolio NO
10.06 07-05 FTRNX 111.83 Trend NO
9.97 08-11 FPHAX 23.17 SPharmaceuticals NO
9.86 09-03 FBSOX 79.05 SITServices NO
9.65 10-01 FSUTX 100.98 SUtilities YES
9.37 11-02 FSAVX 37.38 SAutomotive NO
9.26 12-03 FSLBX 82.83 SBrokerage&InvestmentManagement NO
9.14 13-07 FNCMX 114.83 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
8.82 14-25 FWRLX 11.22 SWireless NO
8.70 15-04 FBGRX 111.14 BlueChipGrowth NO
8.67 16-03 FFIDX 51.84 Fidelity NO
8.12 17-02 FDFFX 37.65 Independence NO
8.01 18-01 FDEQX 40.81 DisciplinedEquity NO
7.95 19-01 FCPGX 27.65 SmallCapGrowth NO
7.86 20-01 FLGEX 21.88 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
Last Week
20.48 01-32 FSELX 13.11 SSemiconductors NO
18.54 02-11 FDCPX 89.61 SComputers NO
17.07 03-15 FSPTX 21.14 STechnology NO
13.29 04-03 FSCSX 21.10 SSoftware&ITServices NO
12.74 05-24 FWRLX 11.57 SWireless NO
12.69 06-11 FOCPX 13.35 OTCPortfolio NO
12.60 07-02 FBSOX 80.60 SITServices NO
12.43 08-04 FTRNX 113.63 Trend NO
12.02 09-01 FSAGX 24.50 SGold YES
11.66 10-06 FNCMX 116.91 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
11.46 11-03 FBGRX 113.44 BlueChipGrowth NO
11.38 12-11 FSHCX 106.34 SHealthCareServices NO
11.27 13-10 FPHAX 23.32 SPharmaceuticals NO
11.13 14-02 FFIDX 52.77 Fidelity NO
10.94 15-01 FSAVX 37.73 SAutomotive NO
10.76 16-01 FLATX 29.47 LatinAmerica NO
10.74 17-01 FDEGX 52.27 Growth Strategies NO
10.57 18-02 FSLBX 83.42 SBrokerage&InvestmentManagement NO
10.52 19-07 FHKCX 39.75 ChinaRegion NO
10.51 20-01 FDFFX 38.32 Independence NO
It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(03Feb20) from SSemiconductors(16Sep19)
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SSemiconductors(16Sep19)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(21Jan20) from SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%