Another not so good a week. Another week where none of the 100 funds I follow are rated by buy – an increasing deviation two weeks in a row is required. Another indication is that over the last 4 weeks (5 numbers) the sum of all deviations has been decreasing – not good.
On the Monday Investors Edge show, Gary Kaltbaum had a phone interview with Jim Rohrbach of investment-models.com. Jim said on Friday (11Aug) his numbers said sell the NYSE index and the previous day his numbers said sell the Nasdaq index. He had been fully invested prior to this change and all his clients are now in cash. Jim offered all listeners 2 months of his newsletter free. Just send an email to Jim@rixindex.com and request free newsletters. He sends out 2 newsletters per week. It is worth the email.
On Tuesday’s Fox Business News, Maria Bartiromo had a Charles Schwab senior analyst who said it may sound like funny magic but on the average during years ending in 7 (like 2017) the market has a down trend between August and November. A marketwatch article talks about the same idea – http://www.marketwatch.com/story/beware-of-the-curse-of-the-number-7-in-the-stock-market-2017-07-21 .
My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of 91.58, 50 day MA of 93.22, a 200 day MA of 89.74, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99. Both RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) and SPY (S&P500 capitalization weighted) are below their 50 Day moving average – the second week in a row. The 50 day average is a price at which many investors sell, and others just do not buy anymore. Not a good sign.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 169.89, a sell price 162.49, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 49.65)
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 86.58, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 34, and is a hold. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 104.55, a sell price 101.39, a rank of 17, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 86.58)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.59, a sell price 10.12, and a rank of 02. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 18.14)
ETF – IBUY – stoploss 35.03 – I plan to hold IBUY until it is stopped out even though SLeasure was sold.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
13.51 01-15 FHKCX 31.85 ChinaReqion
13.20 02-07 FPEMX 10.59 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
11.76 03-13 FSEAX 40.46 EmergingAsia
11.61 04-30 FSPTX 169.89 STechnology
10.80 05-02 FLATX 24.40 LatinAmerica
10.30 06-20 FEMKX 29.47 EmergingMarkets
10.02 07-06 FPBFX 32.81 PacificBasin
9.60 08-06 FISMX 28.22 InternationalSmallCap
9.22 09-17 FDSVX 30.73 Growth Discovery
9.09 10-04 FSDAX 150.14 SDefense&Aerospace
8.77 11-02 FSUTX 84.50 SUtilities
8.63 12-05 FTIEX 8.92 TotalInternationalEquity
8.49 13-14 FSCOX 17.82 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
8.33 14-01 FEDDX 14.41 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
8.29 15-04 FIGRX 44.42 InternationalDiscovery
8.24 16-04 FIREX 11.10 InternationalRealEstate
8.15 17-08 FOCPX 104.55 OTCPortfolio
7.98 18-01 FIVFX 19.89 InternationalCapApp
7.39 19-01 FSVLX 14.30 SConsumerFinance
7.02 20-01 FSCSX 153.38 SSoftware&ITServices
Last week:
12.89 01-14 FHKCX 31.45 ChinaReqion
12.37 02-06 FPEMX 10.44 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
11.33 03-29 FSPTX 168.43 STechnology
10.48 04-12 FSEAX 39.75 EmergingAsia
10.38 05-03 FSDAX 151.18 SDefense&Aerospace
9.85 06-05 FISMX 28.14 InternationalSmallCap
9.64 07-16 FDSVX 30.70 Growth Discovery
8.88 08-05 FPBFX 32.30 PacificBasin
8.86 09-07 FOCPX 104.79 OTCPortfolio
8.57 10-01 FIVLX 8.85 InternationalValue
8.51 11-03 FIREX 11.08 InternationalRealEstate
8.34 12-19 FEMKX 28.79 EmergingMarkets
8.30 13-13 FSCOX 17.71 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
8.18 14-03 FIGRX 44.18 InternationalDiscovery
8.14 15-02 FWRLX 9.91 SWireless
8.06 16-01 FJSCX 17.60 JapanSmallerCompanies
8.03 17-04 FTIEX 8.83 TotalInternationalEquity
7.91 18-01 FLATX 23.63 LatinAmerica
7.83 19-01 FSUTX 83.38 SUtilities
7.79 20-02 FBGRX 82.55 BlueChipGrowth
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
May17 1m+5% 3m-5% 6m+8% 12m+12% 24m-6% 36m+18% 60m+75% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserve(FDRXX)(31Jul17) from SLeasure(FDLSX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
May17 1m+4% 3m+2% 6m10% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+15% 60m+27% 120m+23%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%