Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 738, 492, and now 381 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 30, 01, and now 03.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is -0% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is -0% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is -1% below its 50 day moving average,
SPY, and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.
What a rotten week. On Monday, all my stop losses were hit and all ETFs were sold. Thanks to the recovery after Monday, that sure looks like a bad idea. It may be or it may not be. That all depends market results over the next couple of weeks.
One of the ETFs I sold was QQQ. If I had invested in PTNQ – the Nasdaq 100 ETFs which switches when QQQ falls below its 200 day average – I would still be invested. Perhaps my 50 day moving average stop loss is too close the the price.
All in all it is a time to wait and see which way the market decides to go so I am buying nothing.
IRA#1
No Investments.
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 69.10, a sell price 66.17, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 16.86, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 21, and is a hold for now. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
SSemiconductors has a price of 9.62, a sell price 10.28, a rank of 79, and is a sell. (ETF – FTXL, XSD)
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – Sell SSemiconductors
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
10.90 01-19 FBSOX 69.10 SITServices NO
8.97 02-12 FSCSX 18.07 SSoftware&ITServices NO
8.55 03-13 FSPTX 16.57 STechnology NO
8.00 04-18 FSVLX 16.55 SConsumerFinance NO
7.95 05-11 FBMPX 62.03 SCommunicationServices NO
7.82 06-02 FSPCX 60.73 SInsurance NO
7.48 07-06 FSHOX 56.34 SConstructionandHousing NO
7.04 08-01 FRESX 45.08 RealEstateInvestment NO
6.58 09-11 FOCPX 11.91 OTCPortfolio NO
6.49 10-05 FDLSX 15.33 SLeisure NO
6.48 11-10 FTQGX 24.55 FocusedStock NO
6.34 12-01 FSRNX 16.75 RealEstateIndex NO
6.20 13-06 FSCPX 45.94 SConsumerDiscretionary NO
6.17 14-02 FTRNX 101.98 Trend NO
5.78 15-01 FIVFX 20.96 InternationalCapApp NO
5.68 16-04 FDSVX 36.62 Growth Discovery NO
5.67 17-04 FSPGX 15.31 LargeCapGrowthIndex NO
5.59 18-03 FCYIX 34.35 SIndustrials NO
5.47 19-01 FSLSX 36.32 ValueStrategies NO
5.39 20-01 FCNTX 12.75 Contrafund NO
Last Week
10.70 01-18 FBSOX 68.58 SITServices NO
9.97 02-12 FSPTX 16.71 STechnology NO
9.63 03-17 FSVLX 16.73 SConsumerFinance NO
9.00 04-11 FSCSX 17.99 SSoftware&ITServices NO
8.61 05-10 FBMPX 62.15 SCommunicationServices NO
8.47 06-01 FSPCX 60.84 SInsurance NO
8.38 07-10 FOCPX 12.07 OTCPortfolio NO
8.02 08-05 FSHOX 56.40 SConstructionandHousing NO
7.70 09-06 FSELX 10.13 SSemiconductors NO
7.70 10-05 FSCPX 46.44 SConsumerDiscretionary NO
7.70 11-04 FDLSX 15.45 SLeisure NO
7.16 12-02 FCYIX 34.76 SIndustrials NO
7.10 13-09 FTQGX 24.61 FocusedStock NO
6.84 14-01 FTRNX 102.29 Trend NO
6.75 15-03 FSPGX 15.42 LargeCapGrowthIndex NO
6.66 16-03 FDSVX 36.85 Growth Discovery NO
6.65 17-05 FSRPX 15.68 SRetailing NO
6.59 18-01 FSLBX 73.32 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement NO
6.55 19-01 FSDAX 17.00 SDefense&Aerospace NO
6.48 20-01 FDEGX 45.33 Growth Strategies NO
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(13May19) from ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19)
Mar19 1m-1% 3m-4% 6m-14% 12m-9% 24m+9% 36m+39% 60m+23% 120m+12%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(20May19) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(15Apr19)
20% – Cash(13May19) from ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19)
20% – Cash(22Apr19) from SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
Mar19 1m-0% 3m+2% 6m-9% 12m-4% 24m+3% 36m+21% 60m+17% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
ETFs
PTNQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m-5% 12m+10%
QQQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+16% 6m-3% 12m+13%
TQQQ Mar19 1m+11% 3m+53% 6m-20% 12m+18%