A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 540, 301, and now 544 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 43, 00, and now 03.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average. IWM is not.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy.
Last Sunday the Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, on “60 Minutes” said the Fed would probably not raise rates for some time. The result was the market feels the Fed will continue to provide as much money as the market needs to continue up.
I am going to add the latest changes for some of the ETFs I follow at the end of this report. Hopefully someday soon most 401ks will allow ETF or stock investing. The Florida Retirement system allows a self directed brokerage account in which you invest in:
Stocks listed on a Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) regulated national exchange
Exchange Traded Funds (except Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds)
Mutual Funds (except for any of the Investment Plan’s primary investment funds)
Fixed Income Products
IRA#1
none
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 66.62, a sell price 63.29, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 19.07, a sell price 18.72, a rank of 20, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 16.36, a sell price 16.42, a rank of 45, and is a sell – except if I sell it before 3/27 Fidelity’s stupid rules can limit my investing in funds in the future. Not a problem with ETFs (ETF – ITA, XAR)
My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
12.87 01-10 FBSOX 66.62 SITServices
10.85 02-07 FHKCX 34.48 ChinaReqion
10.60 03-04 FSPTX 15.94 STechnology
9.14 04-10 FSVLX 16.01 SConsumerFinance
9.01 05-05 FSDCX 40.76 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.82 06-03 FSCSX 19.05 SSoftware&ITServices
8.70 07-03 FSEAX 41.98 EmergingAsia
8.39 08-02 FOCPX 11.55 OTCPortfolio
8.32 09-02 FBMPX 77.65 SCommunicationServices
8.08 10-01 FTQGX 23.92 FocusedStock
7.88 11-01 FSELX 9.66 SSemiconductors
7.82 12-01 FSMEX 53.96 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
7.78 13-01 FDSVX 35.93 Growth Discovery
7.65 14-02 FRESX 43.77 RealEstateInvestment
7.64 15-23 FLATX 24.03 LatinAmerica
7.48 16-02 FSUTX 87.94 SUtilities Yes
7.30 17-03 FDSSX 44.07 StockSelectorAllCap
7.15 18-02 FSLSX 35.57 ValueStrategies
7.00 19-10 FDSCX 23.14 StockSelectorSmallCap
6.87 20-02 FSAGX 19.07 SGold
Last Week
9.51 01-09 FBSOX 64.20 SITServices
8.18 02-06 FSDAX 16.71 SDefense&Aerospace
8.00 03-06 FHKCX 33.40 ChinaReqion
7.54 04-01 FSAGX 19.12 SGold
6.45 05-09 FSVLX 15.54 SConsumerFinance
6.38 06-01 FRESX 43.08 RealEstateInvestment
5.85 07-03 FSPTX 15.17 STechnology
5.80 08-04 FSDCX 39.37 SCommunicationsEquipment
5.79 09-01 FSUTX 86.22 SUtilities
5.75 10-01 FBMPX 75.48 SCommunicationServices
5.73 11-05 FCYIX 33.02 SIndustrials
5.65 12-02 FSCSX 18.41 SSoftware&ITServices
5.56 13-02 FSEAX 40.58 EmergingAsia
5.33 14-01 FCVSX 28.00 ConvertibleSecurities
5.32 15-01 FSRNX 16.01 RealEstateIndex
5.24 16-22 FLATX 23.40 LatinAmerica
5.03 17-09 FDSCX 22.63 StockSelectorSmallCap
5.01 18-01 FSLSX 34.73 ValueStrategies
4.81 19-01 FOCPX 11.12 OTCPortfolio
4.61 20-02 FDSSX 42.80 StockSelectorAllCap
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(11Mar19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19)
Feb19 1m-4% 3m-8% 6m-13% 12m-8% 24m+3% 36m+41% 60m+19% 120m+8%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(11Mar19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Feb19 1m+1% 3m+0% 6m-7% 12m-4% 24m+2% 36m+24% 60m+12% 120m+37%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%
ETFs
PTNQ Feb19 1m+0% 3m+1% 6m-9% 12m+2%
QQQ Feb19 1m+3% 3m+3% 6m-7% 12m+4%