Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -164, -472, and now -564 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 08, and now 03.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 5% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 7% below its 50 day moving average,
my sum of deviations is negative.
The three ETFs are even further below their 200 day moving average. Being below a 50 day moving average says “consider selling”. Being below a 200 day moving average says “why hasn’t it been sold”.
On Fox Business News this morning, a guest was suggesting BX (Blackstone Group LP) was a good investment with a current distribution of over 8%. The host, Stuart Varney said he had purchased it when the same guest suggested it a while back when it way yielding 6% – he has about a 25% loss so far. BX is below both its 50 and 200 day moving average. As best as I can tell BX is a limited partnership (LP). LPs pay distributions with a 1065 K-1 instead of a 1099 Int/Div. A 1065 K-1 is generally a pain to report on your tax return. If the LP is in a tax sheltered account this is no tax reporting.
“As chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab , Liz Ann Sonders is Main Street’s guide to Wall Street. Lately, her advice to individual investors is to tread carefully, as she sees recession risks rising in 2019, some sort of bear market, and probably greater volatility.” https://www.barrons.com/articles/charles-schwab-strategist-on-stock-market-recession-51544799898
SHealthCareServices has a price of 95.43, a sell price 98.27, a rank of 04, and is a sell. (ETF – IHF, XLV)
The sell price have been adjusted for a distribution of $4.444. The current price is 6% below the adjusted purchase price and since it is after 12/12 Fidelity is not going to yell at me for selling it. I am selling it.
My investment changes this weekend.
IRA#1
Sell SHealthCareServices.
IRA#2
Sell SHealthCareServices.
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
5.86 01-11 FSUTX 85.02 SUtilities Yes
3.24 02-10 FIUIX 25.85 TelecomandUtilities Yes
2.84 03-08 FSRNX 15.33 RealEstateIndex
1.94 04-06 FRESX 41.08 RealEstateInvestment
1.72 05-10 FRIFX 11.51 RealEstateIncome
1.27 06-27 FSHCX 95.43 SHealthCareServices
0.79 07-02 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
-0.06 08-10 FLATX 20.99 LatinAmerica
-0.42 09-02 FSAGX 17.06 SGold
-0.86 10-03 FBMPX 69.68 SCommunicationServices
-1.32 11-09 FPHAX 19.86 SPharmaceuticals
-1.61 12-05 FEMEX 8.83 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-1.64 13-21 FSMEX 48.40 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.76 14-02 FCVSX 27.53 ConvertibleSecurities
-2.14 15-02 FIREX 10.92 InternationalRealEstate
-2.23 16-09 FDFAX 73.44 SConsumerStaples
-2.25 17-11 FSTCX 55.29 STelecommunications
-2.28 18-03 FTQGX 21.65 FocusedStock
-2.36 19-01 FSDCX 36.01 SCommunicationsEquipment
-2.73 20-05 FDLSX 13.42 SLeisure
Last Week
5.55 01-07 FSRNX 15.98 RealEstateIndex Yes
5.00 02-10 FSUTX 90.46 SUtilities Yes
4.54 03-05 FRESX 42.86 RealEstateInvestment
3.64 04-26 FSHCX 102.14 SHealthCareServices
3.00 05-09 FIUIX 27.19 TelecomandUtilities Yes
2.77 06-04 FEMEX 9.23 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
2.58 07-09 FRIFX 11.85 RealEstateIncome Yes
0.83 08-01 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.55 09-09 FLATX 21.12 LatinAmerica
0.26 10-01 FSAGX 17.18 SGold
0.11 11-08 FPHAX 20.43 SPharmaceuticals
-0.75 12-10 FSTCX 57.09 STelecommunications
-0.89 13-20 FSMEX 50.44 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.00 14-02 FBMPX 75.52 SCommunicationServices
-1.48 15-08 FDFAX 78.63 SConsumerStaples
-1.51 16-05 FSPHX 24.49 SHealthCare
-1.62 17-01 FIREX 10.99 InternationalRealEstate Yes
-1.71 18-01 FCVSX 27.57 ConvertibleSecurities
-2.02 19-04 FDLSX 15.26 SLeisure
-2.39 20-02 FTQGX 21.65 FocusedStock
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%