At the beginning of the year the projections for the 1st qtr GDP was 3+% – a good number. Now with the help of no quick tax cuts, no ACA replacement, etc. optimism is fading. The current projections for 1st qtr is 1+%. How will the market do with the economy barely improving?
There is an article on the “DecisionPoint Weekly Wrap April 13, 2017” at https://stockcharts.com/articles/ which says the “S&P 500 earnings results for 2016 Q4 are in, and the market is still grossly overvalued.” They also go on to state the intermediate term and long term trends are both bullish even though we are in the 7th week of a corrections.
My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 89.55, 50 day MA of 90.30, a 200 day MA of 85.45, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold but then there are no investments to buy and hold. The general rule of thumb is consider selling when an investment falls below its to day moving average and make sure you own nothing selling below both its 50 and 200 day moving average.
Many years ago I decided to hold FSAGX (SGold) during a down market. It turns out I lost money. Seems when the market starts to go down every fund gets sold. FSAGX is the best fund going, THIS week.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 21Mar. Not a time to invest.
My current investments:
IRA#1 – not invested – 100% cash
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 103.87, a sell price 99.39, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 74.14)
SComputers has a price of 85.38, a sell price 81.71, a rank of of 01, and is a hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 38.85)
60% cash
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
14.12 01-04 FSAGX 22.33 SGold
11.14 02-13 FDCPX 83.19 SComputers
10.26 03-16 FBIOX 197.30 SBiotechnology
9.79 04-12 FSPTX 145.80 STechnology
9.58 05-05 FHKCX 27.80 ChinaReqion
8.90 06-05 FSEAX 35.76 EmergingAsia
8.05 07-10 FOCPX 93.45 OTCPortfolio
7.89 08-08 FWRLX 9.27 SWireless
7.40 09-04 FEDDX 13.14 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.24 10-03 FDLSX 145.46 SLeisure
7.23 11-02 FEMKX 25.49 EmergingMarkets
6.89 12-41 FSELX 96.77 SSemiconductors
6.81 13-01 FISMX 25.51 InternationalSmallCap
6.78 14-02 FTEMX 11.88 TotalEmergingMarkets
6.62 15-04 FLATX 21.67 LatinAmerica
6.57 16-13 FSCHX 153.36 SChemicals
6.50 17-01 FPBFX 29.32 PacificBasin
6.45 18-03 FBGRX 74.51 BlueChipGrowth
6.32 19-01 FSUTX 77.64 SUtilities
6.32 20-01 FPHAX 18.13 SPharmaceuticals
Last week:
12.43 01-12 FDCPX 85.38 SComputers
11.86 02-11 FSPTX 152.73 STechnology
11.18 03-40 FSELX 103.87 SSemiconductors
10.79 04-03 FSAGX 21.56 SGold
10.57 05-04 FHKCX 27.91 ChinaReqion
10.36 06-15 FBIOX 196.40 SBiotechnology
10.31 07-12 FSCHX 164.66 SChemicals
9.26 08-09 FOCPX 94.10 OTCPortfolio
9.17 09-04 FSEAX 35.68 EmergingAsia
9.10 10-07 FWRLX 9.38 SWireless
8.60 11-02 FARNX 13.79 EventDrivenOpportunities
8.48 12-03 FLATX 21.97 LatinAmerica
8.23 13-03 FEDDX 13.19 EmergingMarketsDiscovery
7.98 14-02 FDLSX 145.91 SLeisure
7.76 15-02 FBGRX 75.17 BlueChipGrowth
7.71 16-08 FNCMX 77.31 NasdaqCompositeIndex
7.59 17-01 FEMKX 25.48 EmergingMarkets
7.38 18-09 FSLEX 24.09 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
7.35 19-01 FTEMX 11.90 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.14 20-01 FSCSX 142.51 SSoftware&ITServices
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
Feb17 1m+3% 3m10% 6m+3% 12m+36% 24m+0% 36m+15% 60m+59% 120m-4%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Apr17) from SBiotechnology(FBIOX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(27Mar17) from STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Feb17 1m+4% 3m+8% 6m+7% 12m21% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+18% 120m+31%
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%