I am following 114 Fidelity funds and slowly eliminating poor performing funds since I feel 100 funds is enough. However, this week for the first time I remember, there are NO funds which have an improving deviation over the last two weeks. My measure of deviation is the current fund price as a percentage above the fund’s exponentially smoothed 39 week moving average. The highest deviation this week is SBiotechnology at 19.49% and the lowest is SEnergyService at 0.56%. The last three week deviations for SBiotechology are 15.21% two weeks ago, 21.58% last week, and 19.49% now – not an increasing deviation trend. I do not buy funds unless they have two weeks of improving deviations and are in my top 20 funds list.
“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com: (https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/)
On Wednesday, 22Feb, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 03Mar, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 10Mar, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bearish, long term outlook bullish.
My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 90.91, 50 day MA of 89.30, a 200 day MA of 84.44, and a 7% stop loss is 85.81. This is not an investment to buy and hold.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. However after this week everything seems to be in pause mode. Maybe a pause before a further move up, or maybe a top. I do not know, but would not be buying anything this week.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 33.70, a sell price 32.40, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 55.20)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 102.83, a sell price 97.69, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 71.43)
STransportation has a price of 90.84, a sell price 89.59, a rank of 53, and is a hold until I decide to buy something. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SBiotechnology has a price of 206.52, a sell price 197.59, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 66.50)
SComputers has a price of 83.41, a sell price 79.53, a rank of of 04, and is a Hold (ETF – PSI- current stoploss 37.56)
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
19.49 01-11 FBIOX 206.52 SBiotechnology
14.75 02-21 FSRBX 33.70 SBanking
12.98 03-36 FSELX 102.83 SSemiconductors
12.94 04-08 FDCPX 83.41 SComputers
11.50 05-17 FSHCX 89.78 SHealthCareServices
11.42 06-07 FSPTX 148.16 STechnology
11.19 07-18 FIDSX 103.57 SFinancialServices
11.16 08-08 FSCHX 162.18 SChemicals
10.65 09-18 FSLBX 71.54 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
9.58 10-04 FSDAX 137.43 SDefense&Aerospace
9.45 11-05 FOCPX 92.43 OTCPortfolio
9.07 12-18 FARNX 13.60 EventDrivenOpportunities
8.96 13-03 FWRLX 9.17 SWireless
8.83 14-04 FNCMX 76.74 NasdaqCompositeIndex
8.68 15-01 FSCSX 142.14 SSoftware&ITServices
8.37 16-03 FBCVX 18.45 BlueChipValue
8.32 17-05 FSLEX 23.87 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
8.26 18-02 FSPCX 80.47 SInsurance
8.21 19-01 FSMEX 41.81 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
8.18 20-01 FSDCX 34.25 SCommunicationsEquipment
Last week:
21.58 01-10 FBIOX 207.99 SBiotechnology
17.02 02-20 FSRBX 34.10 SBanking
14.13 03-07 FDCPX 83.72 SComputers
13.46 04-17 FSHCX 90.80 SHealthCareServices Yes
13.38 05-07 FSCHX 164.44 SChemicals
13.06 06-35 FSELX 102.20 SSemiconductors
12.71 07-17 FIDSX 104.37 SFinancialServices
12.04 08-06 FSPTX 148.09 STechnology
12.00 09-17 FSLBX 72.01 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
11.77 10-17 FARNX 13.87 EventDrivenOpportunities
11.01 11-03 FSDAX 138.53 SDefense&Aerospace
10.80 12-04 FOCPX 93.10 OTCPortfolio
10.03 13-02 FBCVX 18.65 BlueChipValue
9.96 14-02 FWRLX 9.21 SWireless Yes
9.92 15-03 FNCMX 77.15 NasdaqCompositeIndex
9.88 16-01 FSPCX 81.32 SInsurance Yes
9.77 17-18 FSRFX 93.66 STransportation
9.71 18-04 FSLEX 24.07 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
9.70 19-05 FSVLX 14.03 SConsumerFinance
9.64 20-01 FLCSX 31.15 LargeCapStock
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+1% 12m+32% 24m+2% 36m+14% 60m+56% 120m-7%
Dec16 1m+6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+24% 24m+14% 36m+14% 60m+65% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(16Jan17) from SComputers(FDCPX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jan17 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+0% 12m16% 24m+10% 36m+12% 60m+17% 120m+20%
Dec16 1m+2% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+9% 24m+8% 36m+7% 60m+21% 120m+18%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%