It was an interesting week. Election results resulted in quite a market change. The DJIA even hit a new high. While the election results did not change my long term bearish view, I am not as pessimistic as NY Times economist Paul Krugman (my “favorite” Keynesian economist) who predicted the market would never recover from a Trump victory. If you are looking for one of the 4k jobs in the new administration try www.greatagain.gov/serve-america.html
Each weekend I get a free email on market ideas from Stockcharts.com. I’ve always reviewed it quickly but found last weekend I discovered I should read it in detail. They have free webinars. The archive of webinars is https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/. Wednesday and Friday the free webinar is called “The DecisionPoint Report”. Last Friday’s report said short term outlook is bearish, intermediate term outlook is bearish, long term outlook is neutral. The report is a little technical but worth the price. In the report EMA is exponential moving average – the same calculation I use each week to compute my “deviation from the exponential moving average (EMA)” – PMO is Price Momentum Oscillator. OBV is On Balance Volume, and SCTR (aka ‘Scooter’) is StockChart’s Technical Rank.
This week the outlook changed slightly. On Friday, 11Nov, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is bearish, long term outlook is neutral. The ETFs they report as bullish are Dollar index – UUP, DOW – DIA, Nasdaq 100 – QQQ, QQEW (QQQ equal weight (EW)), Energy – KLE, Financial – XLF, RYF(EW), Industrial – XLI, RGI(EW), Materials EW – RTM, Technology – XLK, RYT(EW). Many indexes are capitalization weighted. The larger the market valuation, the more weight in the index. For example, in the S&P500 index ETF – SPY – Apple’s weight is 3.10%, Microsoft is 2.44%, etc. In an equal weighted (EW) S&P500 index , RSP, Apple’s weight would be 1/500 or 0.2%, Microsoft weight would be 0.2%, etc.
This week I talked with a young lady about a simple invest method. I suggested with a small investment the ETF SPY would be a good place to start. When SPY is above the 50 day moving average (MA) and the 200 day MA it should be owned. When it is below the 50 day MA consider selling it. When it is below the 200 day MA do not own it. I told her I do that with my SPY/RSP portfolio. Stop loss orders can be placed at the 50 day MA, 200 day MA, or. as I do, a 7% stop loss (from the highest close) to prevent a major loss. RSP (SPY EW) has a price of 83.67, 50 day MA of 82.42, a 200 day MA of 79.62, and a 7% stop loss is 78.78. However this is not an investment to buy and hold.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 09Nov. Time to invest except I wait a week until after the market pulse moves to confirmed uptrend. Often the market pulse changes quickly.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
CashReserves
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 90.72, a sell price 88.45, a rank of 06, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.75)
SComputers has a price of 76.67, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 15, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 105.48)
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
16.93 01-04 FSRBX 29.22 SBanking
11.45 02-03 FSDAX 133.63 SDefense&Aerospace
11.17 03-02 FSRFX 87.12 STransportation
11.08 04-01 FSLBX 65.00 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
10.92 05-02 FSAIX 70.81 SAirTransportation Yes
10.85 06-19 FSELX 90.72 SSemiconductors
9.97 07-01 FIDSX 92.43 SFinancialServices
8.82 08-01 FSPCX 75.20 SInsurance
8.69 09-17 FSDCX 32.40 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.60 10-01 FGRIX 32.58 Growth&Income
7.68 11-01 FCPEX 13.10 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
7.10 12-01 FSVLX 12.79 SConsumerFinance
7.05 13-01 FSLEX 21.85 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
6.96 14-01 FSCGX 40.84 SIndustrialEquipment
6.49 15-15 FDCPX 76.67 SComputers
6.20 16-01 FARNX 11.97 EventDrivenOpportunities
6.10 17-01 FLCSX 28.59 LargeCapStock
5.86 18-03 FDSCX 25.18 StockSelectorSmallCap
5.45 19-01 FCPGX 20.27 SmallCapGrowth
5.45 20-01 FEQIX 55.74 Equity-Income
Last week:
9.34 01-18 FSELX 88.97 SSemiconductors
6.46 02-04 FJSCX 15.61 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
5.40 03-20 FLATX 21.27 LatinAmerica
4.94 04-16 FSDCX 31.14 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
4.70 05-03 FSRBX 25.93 SBanking
4.41 06-16 FSCSX 132.43 SSoftware&ITServices
4.28 07-16 FSPTX 129.74 STechnology
4.27 08-02 FEMEX 8.07 EmergingEMEA
4.25 09-05 FJPNX 12.50 Japan
4.05 10-01 FSAGX 23.28 SGold
3.99 11-21 FTEMX 11.14 TotalEmergingMarkets
3.88 12-03 FFGCX 10.74 GlobalCommodity Stock
3.49 13-14 FDCPX 74.25 SComputers
3.14 14-06 FSNGX 25.73 SNaturalGas
3.11 15-01 FSAIX 65.45 SAirTransportation
2.94 16-01 FISMX 24.09 InternationalSmallCap
2.92 17-01 FSRFX 80.18 STransportation
2.63 18-02 FSPCX 70.59 SInsurance
2.55 19-02 FSDAX 122.22 SDefense&Aerospace
2.32 20-01 FPBFX 28.45 PacificBasin
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(31Oct16) from SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(10Nov16) from SEnergyService(FSESX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(07Nov16) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(31Oct16) from SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%