Not a bad week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -865, -581, and now -99 – up 2 weeks in a row but the numbers are still negative.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 02, and now 93.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 2% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 1% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 1% below its 50 day moving average,
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a week to buy.
Another week like this will be time to buy. If it turns out FLATX is a buy, I will buy it for my mutual fund accounts and ETFs EWZS and FBZ for all others.
Liz Ann Sonders, a chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, discusses the recent market rally, the Zweig Breadth Thrust, and the likelihood the rally maintains its momentum with CNBC’s “Closing Bell” team.
https://www.cnbc.com/video/2019/01/09/uncertainties-remain-recent-market-rally-decent-liz-ann-sonders.html
Again on Friday Gary Kaltbaum pointed out that on 01/04/19 the head of the Federal Reserve Board indicated he would adjust interest rates based on the economy – i.e. if the market goes down he will start QE again to save it. Kaltbaum indicates we probably seen the market low – at least for a couple of months.
My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
10.55 01-14 FLATX 23.44 LatinAmerica Yes
4.64 02-06 FSAGX 18.06 SGold
3.13 03-08 FEMEX 9.25 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
2.37 04-02 FSRPX 14.45 SRetailing Yes
1.89 05-01 FHKCX 30.51 ChinaReqion Yes
1.81 06-14 FIUIX 25.46 TelecomandUtilities Yes
1.78 07-01 FSCPX 42.19 SConsumerDiscretionary Yes
1.73 08-01 FSSNX 18.51 SmallCapIndex Yes
1.62 09-01 FBSOX 57.39 SITServices Yes
1.54 10-14 FRIFX 11.49 RealEstateIncome Yes
1.51 11-01 FBMPX 70.92 SCommunicationServices Yes
1.44 12-01 FCPEX 11.44 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
1.40 13-01 FRESX 39.89 RealEstateInvestment
1.22 14-03 FAMRX 17.44 Asset Manager 85% Yes
0.95 15-01 FSVLX 14.32 SConsumerFinance Yes
0.79 16-14 FSUTX 80.94 SUtilities
0.78 17-01 FDSCX 21.17 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
0.70 18-06 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.65 19-01 FSTCX 56.53 STelecommunications Yes
0.64 20-01 FSEAX 37.88 EmergingAsia Yes
Last Week
6.99 01-05 FSAGX 18.42 SGold Yes
6.90 02-13 FLATX 22.54 LatinAmerica
0.63 03-05 FCONX 10.00 ConservativeIncomeBond
-0.67 04-13 FRIFX 11.23 RealEstateIncome
-1.62 05-13 FSUTX 78.97 SUtilities
-1.72 06-07 FEMEX 8.80 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
-1.85 07-13 FIUIX 24.52 TelecomandUtilities
-2.92 08-02 FTQGX 20.97 FocusedStock
-3.48 09-01 FCNTX 11.14 Contrafund
-3.69 10-01 FDSVX 31.43 Growth Discovery
-3.89 11-05 FIREX 10.68 InternationalRealEstate
-3.95 12-01 FMAGX 9.07 Magellan
-3.96 13-01 FLCSX 27.62 LargeCapStock
-3.99 14-01 FMEIX 12.72 MidCapEnchancedIndex
-3.99 15-01 FLGEX 17.02 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex
-4.03 16-01 FSRPX 13.53 SRetailing
-4.05 17-01 FDFFX 31.28 Independence
-4.06 18-02 FAMRX 16.52 Asset Manager 85%
-4.21 19-03 FNMIX 14.28 NewMarketsIncome
-4.21 20-01 FSPGX 13.08 LargeCapGrowthIndex
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%