Not a good week. One of the first weeks ever that none of the deviations of the 100 mutual funds I follow are up 2 weeks in a row. For each fund, I compute the percent the fund is above its 39 week exponentially smoothed moving average. For example, this week Fidelity China Region fund’s price is 12.89% (which I refer to as deviation) above it’s 39 week exponentially smoothed moving average. Last week this fund’s deviation was 15.39. Two weeks ago the deviation was 15.79. While the fund price may be going up, it’s rate of increase is decreasing and the deviation has not been increasing two weeks in row. The result is that it is not a buy as well as the other 99 funds which are not buys.
One of the loosely investment related YouTube videos I like to watch is Gerald Celente. He can be a little outrageous at times. In his video published on 11Aug17, he comments on world markets, interest rates, the way the US and the United Kingdom created the IRAN problem in 1952, etc.
Another YouTube video providing a good world economic view is Boom Bust RT – YouTube.com/BoomBustRT. On the 08Aug17 show they reported the US that credit card debt is 1.021T, the US student loan debt is 1.4T, and US household debt is 12.0T, all of which are records, beating the previous records set in 2008. We, and the rest of the world, have learned nothing about the down side of debt.
My S&P500 investment is in RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) which has a price of 92.20, 50 day MA of 93.20, a 200 day MA of 89.44, and a 7% stop loss is 87.99. Both RSP (S&P500 EqualWeighted) and SPY (S&P500 capitalization weighted) are below their 50 Day moving average. The 50 day average is a price at which many investors sell, and others just do not buy anymore. Not a good sign.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2 – STechnology has a price of 168.43, a sell price 162.49, a rank of 03, and is a hold. ( ETF – CQQQ – current stoploss 49.25 )
IRA#2
SComputers has a price of 86.30, a sell price 84.96, a rank of of 38, and is a hold. (ETF – PSI – stopped out 6/12 11% gain)
OTCPortfolio has a price of 104.79, a sell price 101.39, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – MTUM – stoploss 86.57)
EmergingMarketsIndex – IC has a price of 10.44, a sell price 10.12, and a rank of 02. (ETF – EEMO – stoploss 18.14)
ETF – IBUY – stoploss 35.03 – I plan to hold IBUY until it is stopped out even though SLeasure was sold. Fidelity now allows a stoploss on IBUY.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
12.89 01-14 FHKCX 31.45 ChinaReqion
12.37 02-06 FPEMX 10.44 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
11.33 03-29 FSPTX 168.43 STechnology
10.48 04-12 FSEAX 39.75 EmergingAsia
10.38 05-03 FSDAX 151.18 SDefense&Aerospace
9.85 06-05 FISMX 28.14 InternationalSmallCap
9.64 07-16 FDSVX 30.70 Growth Discovery
8.88 08-05 FPBFX 32.30 PacificBasin
8.86 09-07 FOCPX 104.79 OTCPortfolio
8.57 10-01 FIVLX 8.85 InternationalValue
8.51 11-03 FIREX 11.08 InternationalRealEstate
8.34 12-19 FEMKX 28.79 EmergingMarkets
8.30 13-13 FSCOX 17.71 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
8.18 14-03 FIGRX 44.18 InternationalDiscovery
8.14 15-02 FWRLX 9.91 SWireless
8.06 16-01 FJSCX 17.60 JapanSmallerCompanies
8.03 17-04 FTIEX 8.83 TotalInternationalEquity
7.91 18-01 FLATX 23.63 LatinAmerica
7.83 19-01 FSUTX 83.38 SUtilities
7.79 20-02 FBGRX 82.55 BlueChipGrowth
Last week:
15.39 01-04 FPEMX 10.65 EmergingMarketsIndex – IC
15.32 02-13 FHKCX 31.91 ChinaReqion
13.49 03-28 FSPTX 170.68 STechnology
13.22 04-11 FSEAX 40.51 EmergingAsia
11.92 05-15 FDSVX 31.94 Growth Discovery
11.87 06-04 FISMX 28.51 InternationalSmallCap
11.38 07-06 FOCPX 106.71 OTCPortfolio
11.36 08-02 FSDAX 151.69 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
10.78 09-04 FPBFX 32.71 PacificBasin
10.71 10-02 FIGRX 45.02 InternationalDiscovery Yes
10.67 11-02 FIREX 11.25 InternationalRealEstate Yes
10.57 12-03 FTIEX 9.00 TotalInternationalEquity
10.44 13-18 FEMKX 29.22 EmergingMarkets
10.44 14-12 FSCOX 17.98 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
10.15 15-07 FBIOX 215.73 SBiotechnology
10.02 16-04 FBGRX 83.91 BlueChipGrowth
9.90 17-03 FSVLX 14.52 SConsumerFinance
9.59 18-01 FWRLX 10.00 SWireless Yes
9.58 19-01 FNORX 53.39 Nordic
9.50 20-01 FIVFX 20.01 InternationalCapApp
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+3% 6m+0% 12m+7% 24m-4% 36m+9% 60m+71% 120m-11%
May17 1m+5% 3m-5% 6m+8% 12m+12% 24m-6% 36m+18% 60m+75% 120m-6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserve(FDRXX)(31Jul17) from SLeasure(FDLSX)
20% – EmergingMarketsIndex – IC(FPEMX)(24Jul17) from CashResrves(FDRXX)
20% – OTCPortfolio(FOCPX)(15May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STechnology(FSPTX)(01May17) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
Jun17 1m-2% 3m+1% 6m+5% 12m+9% 24m+7% 36m+11% 60m+24% 120m+20%
May17 1m+4% 3m+2% 6m10% 12m+18% 24m+7% 36m+15% 60m+27% 120m+23%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%