A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 882, 822, and now 868 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 57, 09, and now 08.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 3% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ, and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.
It is sure looking like 1999 all over again. The ETFs representing the DJIA – DIA, S&P500 – SPY, Nasdaq100 – QQQ, all hit new highs on 09Jan. They all did it before during the week of 30Mar00 and then went down for ~18 months.
The Fidelity mutual fund short term performance numbers for December were finally published by Fidelity on 08Jan. Both the top 5 and 10 funds over 3 month identified on the November report gained 4.1% for the month. However the performance numbers Fidelity published are for the calendar month but the fund list is not published at month end.
Therefore I invested $1000 in each of the top 5 funds from the end of November report. The funds were:
FBIOX – SBiotechnology,
FSHCX – SHealthCareServices,
FSPHX – SHealthCare,
FSELX – SSemiconductors,
FPHAX – SPharmaceuticals.
If this investments proves to be as profitable as my analyis, it will be a way anyone can get the data, and I can eliminate my analysis.
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/fund-screener/results/table/short-term-perf/cumulativeTotalReturnsMonth3/desc/1?fidelityFundOnly=F&order=fidelityFundOnly
IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.63, a sell price 12.00, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 12.63, a sell price 12.00, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SWireless has a price of 11.36, a sell price 10.79, a rank of 10, and is a hold. (ETF – IYZ, XTL)
SAutomotive has a price of 36.93, a sell price 35.53, a rank of 29, and is a hold for now. (ETF – RGI, EXI)
SHealthCareServices has a price of 106.22, a sell price 100.91, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – GNOM, BBC)
SComputers has a price of 88.00, a sell price 83.60, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – SNSR, SMH)
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
18.82 01-09 FDCPX 88.00 SComputers NO
18.64 02-30 FSELX 12.63 SSemiconductors NO
16.24 03-13 FSPTX 20.60 STechnology NO
15.68 04-05 FHKCX 41.01 ChinaRegion YES
14.07 05-08 FPHAX 23.57 SPharmaceuticals NO
13.22 06-05 FSEAX 47.06 EmergingAsia YES
13.07 07-08 FBIOX 22.11 SBiotechnology NO
13.05 08-09 FOCPX 13.20 OTCPortfolio NO
12.73 09-09 FSHCX 106.22 SHealthCareServices NO
12.29 10-22 FWRLX 11.36 SWireless NO
12.03 11-02 FTRNX 111.68 Trend NO
11.86 12-06 FSESX 24.24 SEnergyServices NO
11.75 13-04 FEMKX 35.77 EmergingMarkets NO
11.73 14-01 FSCSX 20.51 SSoftware&ITServices NO
11.54 15-04 FSPHX 29.07 SHealthCare NO
11.51 16-04 FNCMX 115.23 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
11.12 17-01 FBGRX 111.64 BlueChipGrowth NO
11.11 18-01 FPBFX 35.23 PacificBasin NO
10.78 19-05 FLATX 29.13 LatinAmerica NO
10.69 20-01 FCPGX 27.89 SmallCapGrowth NO
Last Week
18.77 01-29 FSELX 12.52 SSemiconductors NO
15.68 02-05 FSESX 24.91 SEnergyServices YES
14.69 03-08 FDCPX 84.10 SComputers NO
14.28 04-12 FSPTX 20.08 STechnology NO
14.14 05-04 FHKCX 40.13 ChinaRegion YES
13.31 06-07 FPHAX 23.24 SPharmaceuticals NO
12.79 07-04 FLATX 29.49 LatinAmerica NO
12.56 08-02 FSAGX 24.22 SGold YES
11.90 09-07 FBIOX 21.73 SBiotechnology NO
11.23 10-21 FWRLX 11.18 SWireless NO
11.08 11-08 FOCPX 12.88 OTCPortfolio NO
11.03 12-04 FSEAX 45.83 EmergingAsia YES
10.98 13-13 FSAVX 37.10 SAutomotive NO
10.88 14-08 FSJCX 103.78 SHealthCareServices NO
10.87 15-12 FEXPX 21.92 Export&Multinational NO
10.56 16-03 FEMKX 35.17 EmergingMarkets NO
10.28 17-03 FNCMX 113.27 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
10.13 18-01 FTRNX 109.09 Trend NO
9.79 19-03 FSPHX 28.44 SHealthCare NO
9.74 20-01 FGRIX 42.37 Growth&Income NO
It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(09Dec19) from LatinAmerica(FLATX)(04Nov19)
20% – SAutomotive(FSAVX)(28Oct19) from Cash(16Sep19)
20% – SWireless(FWRLX)(21Oct19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(16Dec19) From SConstructionandHousing(FSHOX)(16Sep19)
20% – SSemiconductors(09Sep19) from Cash(19Aug19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%