A good week.
Consuelo Mack in her 2/10 weekly show, available online at wealthtrack.com, featured an interview with Charlie Dreifus. He did not indicate he was barish but as a value investor, finds less and less to buy. “Priced to perfection: after a 30% plus gain, value investor Charles Dreifus cautions the markets are expensive and its time to “de-risk” portfolios.” Near the end of the show, even Ms. Mack emphasises his remarks. Ms. Mack is generally bullish.
So what do you do when the markets start down? Well the first thing is to sell. Cash in a portfolio does not decline. If you are even more aggressive, after you sell, you can buy a bear ETFs. For example if you own SPY (S&P500 index ETF), sell it, then invest in SH – a bear SPY. If you own QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF), sell it, then invest in PSQ – a short QQQ. Sometime do a Google search on short ETFs. Since there are double and triple ETFs which go up 2 & 3 times faster than a basic index ETF (TQQQ it the triple QQQ), there are also 2 & 3 times short ETFs (SQQQ is the triple short QQQ). In my opinion, double and triple ETFs are excessively risky. I have owned triple bull ETFs but never a short ETF of any type.
“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com: (https://stockcharts.com/webinars/archives/)
On Friday, 03Feb, the short term outlook is neutral, intermediate term outlook is neutral to bullish, long term outlook bullish.
On Friday, 10Feb, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term outlook is bullish, long term outlook bullish.
The report did note that the energy sector ETFs moved from a buy rating to a neutral rating.
My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 89.87, 50 day MA of 87.82, a 200 day MA of 83.22, and a 7% stop loss is 83.58. This is not an investment to buy and hold.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. I am fully invested so will buy nothing, but will switch an investment.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.78, a sell price 31.30, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.90)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 98.65, a sell price 94.69, a rank of 07, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 70.61)
STransportation has a price of 92.08, a sell price 89.59, a rank of 15, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 29.04, a sell price 28.93, a rank of 46, and is a sell. (ETF – XES – stoploss executed)
SBiotechnology has a price of 193.11, a sell price 183.45, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – XBI – current stoploss 62.38)
My stoploss on XES caused a sell last week and this week SNaturalGas is a sell since it ranks so low. I sold SComputers last month and it is a buy today.
SComputers has a price of 80.88, a sell price TBD, a rank of of 05, and is a buy (ETF – PSI)
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell SNaturalGas and buy SComputers
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
16.36 01-07 FBIOX 193.11 SBiotechnology Yes
15.90 02-02 FSAGX 22.95 SGold
15.59 03-17 FSRBX 32.78 SBanking
13.56 04-14 FARNX 13.80 EventDrivenOpportunities
12.72 05-04 FDCPX 80.88 SComputers Yes
11.72 06-03 FSPTX 144.80 STechnology Yes
11.49 07-32 FSELX 98.65 SSemiconductors
11.04 08-14 FSLBX 69.99 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
10.93 09-04 FSCHX 157.54 SChemicals
10.88 10-14 FIDSX 100.64 SFinancialServices
10.59 11-11 FSESX 56.09 SEnergyService
10.59 12-14 FSHCX 86.79 SHealthCareServices
9.86 13-13 FCPEX 14.40 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
9.68 14-01 FOCPX 90.53 OTCPortfolio
9.66 15-15 FSRFX 92.08 STransportation
9.26 16-02 FSVLX 13.75 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.13 17-06 FFGCX 11.84 GlobalCommodity Stock
8.89 18-09 FCYIX 33.34 SIndustrials
8.79 19-01 FSCSX 139.54 SSoftware&ITServices
8.71 20-01 FSLEX 23.48 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
Last week:
16.90 01-16 FSRBX 32.88 SBanking
14.99 02-06 FBIOX 189.20 SBiotechnology
13.96 03-13 FARNX 13.75 EventDrivenOpportunities Yes
13.53 04-10 FSESX 57.26 SEnergyService
13.31 05-01 FSAGX 22.25 SGold
12.60 06-31 FSELX 99.03 SSemiconductors
12.28 07-03 FSCHX 158.55 SChemicals
11.43 08-13 FIDSX 100.56 SFinancialServices
11.10 09-13 FSLBX 69.62 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement Yes
10.85 10-13 FSHCX 86.51 SHealthCareServices
10.83 11-03 FDCPX 78.99 SComputers Yes
10.22 12-05 FFGCX 11.90 GlobalCommodity Stock
10.07 13-02 FSPTX 141.78 STechnology Yes
9.98 14-12 FCPEX 14.34 SmallCapEnchancedIndex Yes
9.57 15-14 FSRFX 91.54 STransportation
9.39 16-12 FSNGX 29.59 SNaturalGas
9.23 17-01 FSVLX 13.68 SConsumerFinance Yes
9.21 18-04 FEMEX 8.70 EmergingEMEA
8.95 19-02 FSDPX 80.70 SMaterials
8.62 20-08 FCYIX 33.10 SIndustrials
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec16 1m+6% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+24% 24m+14% 36m+14% 60m+65% 120m-6%
Nov16 1m+1% 3m-6% 6m+7% 12m+15% 24m+5% 36m+9% 60m+52% 120m-5%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(13Feb17) from SNaturalGas(FSNGX)
20% – SBiotechnology(FBIOX)(16Jan17) from SComputers(FDCPX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec16 1m+2% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+9% 24m+8% 36m+7% 60m+21% 120m+18%
Nov16 1m+3% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+4% 24m+7% 36m+6% 60m+19% 120m+21%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%