I was looking for some more iTunes radio shows and stumbled across Trend Following with Michael Coval. I started listening to all of them – only 300 or more to go – and came accross number 17 – interview with James Rohrbach. He has been of the top market timers for decades. He does not reveal exactly the method he uses, but suggests you could follow stocks with a 15-30 cross over. He is talking about using a 15 day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) relative to a 30 day EMA. Selling when the 15 day goes lower than the 30 day and vice versa. A 15 day calculation id EMA(0) = P*a + EMA(-1)*(1-a) where P is the current price, a is the smoothing factor ( a = 2/(1+N) ), and where N is the number of days The same calculation is used for the 30 day EMA using an N of 30. I have been using an EMA since the start of my investing. In my case I calculate an a of 2/(1+39) or .05 and then divide the current price by the EMA to get the deviation. Trend Following with Michael Coval is generally interview with successful traders and is quite interesting.
Again this week a fedhead came out on Friday and said we should not raise interest rates for at lease a year and the market responded. We are still being controlled by the federal reserve board. So if the previous reactions to fedhead talks continue, the market should be up this coming week.
IBD TBP’s Current Outlook is “Uptrend Under Pressure” – NOT a time to invest.
My current investments:
SPharmaceuticals has a price of 23.67, a sell price 22.49, a rank of 04, and is a Hold.
SHealthCare has a price of 240.71 a sell price 228.67, a rank of 03, and is a Hold.
SElectronics has a price of 84.39, a sell price 80.17, a rank of 13, and is a Hold.
SRetailing has a price of 95.42, a sell price 90.65, a rank of 10, and is a Hold.
So the numbers bounced all over the place due to distributions of 1.3% to 5.5%.
I have my distributions taken and not reivested. By the time a fund has a distribution I may no longer want to buy it.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested