On the New Wall Street Week guest Joe Grano said he expected a 10-20% decline coming in the future. After Joe, the program had two financial advisers who both had suggestions as to were you should invested to survive the decline if it came. I find it interesting. Listening to most stock market advisers there are “up markets” and “volatile markets.” Personally I plan to sell and hide in a money market fund when the “volatile market” arrives.
I have always enjoyed George Will. In this video he discusses two failing bureaucracies – the US government and US univesities. Please note that in the video he referenced the housing mortgage bubble – which the US government caused – and crash of 2007/8 and points out we now have an even bigger college loan bubble. I sort of wonder how we can expect any graduate with a large student loan who finally finds job will be able to buy thing to help the economy grow. We have governed, educated, and loaned the US into a no growth future unless the college load bubble crashes and then who knows. https://www.youtube.com/embed/Vfl4BGbMxoQ
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Uptrend Under Pressure” as of 09Sep. NOT a time to invest. Last week the Market Pulse moved to Confirmed Uptrend but Friday was a bad day and the reading changed.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 42.04, a sell price of 41.02, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 135.25)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 21.18, a sell price 20.73, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – BRF – current stoploss 16.73)
SElectronics has a price of 84.46, a sell price 84.22, a rank of 02, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 62.14)
SNaturalGas has a price of 26.01, a sell price 24.95, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – PSCE – current stoploss 16.71)
I was surprised that there were no sale prices hit. September is the worst market month during the average year. October is the month when the market turns up. However there are two interesting cycles. The first year of the presidential cycle is generally the worst of the 4 years. The two year presidential cycle says sell on the presidential election day and buy 2 yeas later during the congressional election.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
12.26 01-32 FSAGX 24.69 SGold
10.45 02-10 FSELX 84.86 SElectronics
9.02 03-12 FLATX 21.18 LatinAmerica
8.82 04-22 FSMEX 42.04 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
8.46 05-11 FTEMX 11.28 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.94 06-05 FSENX 43.10 SEnergy
7.81 07-08 FSPTX 129.26 STechnology
7.67 08-08 FSCSX 132.33 SSoftware&ITServices
7.51 09-05 FSNGX 26.01 SNaturalGas
7.49 10-05 FNARX 28.81 SNaturalResources
6.72 11-03 FSLBX 60.90 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
6.44 12-08 FSDCX 30.69 SCommunicationsEquipment
6.08 13-01 FISMX 24.27 InternationalSmallCap
6.00 14-01 FSRBX 25.68 SBanking
5.94 15-06 FDCPX 73.51 SComputers
5.79 16-01 FEMEX 8.03 EmergingEMEA
5.57 17-01 FPBFX 28.71 PacificBasin
5.38 18-07 FEMKX 24.16 EmergingMarkets
5.26 19-01 FFGCX 10.69 GlobalCommodity Stock
6.94 20-01 FSCHX 147.15 SChemicals
Last week
16.02 01-09 FSELX 88.65 SElectronics Yes
12.29 02-21 FSMEX 43.18 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
11.89 03-31 FSAGX 24.45 SGold
11.66 04-11 FLATX 21.59 LatinAmerica
10.59 05-07 FSPTX 132.05 STechnology
9.69 06-07 FSCSX 134.27 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
9.43 07-10 FTEMX 11.33 TotalEmergingMarkets
9.34 08–07 FSDCX 31.42 SCommunicationsEquipment
8.63 09-02 FSLBX 61.77 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
8.29 10-04 FNARX 28.91 SNaturalResources
8.24 11-04 FSENX 43.04 SEnergy
8.24 12-05 FDCPX 74.87 SComputers
8.11 13-07 FCPGX 20.34 SmallCapGrowth
7.65 14-04 FSNGX 25.94 SNaturalGas
7.48 15-07 FOCPX 85.85 OTCPortfolio
7.23 16-02 FSLEX 21.40 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy
7.16 17-01 FRESX 46.03 RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio
7.13 18-06 FEMKX 24.49 EmergingMarkets
7.00 19-02 FMCSX 34.81 MidCapStock
6.94 20-01 FSCHX 147.15 SChemicals
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-7% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24-1% 36m+13% 60m+8% 120m-2%
Jun16 1m+6% 3m+22% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24m+2% 36m+23% 60m+12% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(29Aug16) from SGold(FSAGX)
20% – LatinAmreica(FLATX)(25Jul16) from JapanSmallerCompaneis(FJSCX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio(FRESX)(21Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – Telecom&Utilities(FIUIX)(14Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+4% 12m-9% 24m-1% 36m-9% 60m+2% 120m+14%
Jun16 1m+6% 3m+9% 6m+5% 12m-1% 24m+2% 36m+8% 60m+8% 120m+21%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%