A good week, a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -493, -213, and now -106 – up 2 weeks in a row – buy.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 01, 02, and now 82.
This last week we had the 8th largest point gain for the DJIA in history and two weeks earlier the 14th largest point loss out of the top 20 gains and losses. Three of the largest gains and losses have taken place over the last month. The 4th through 7th largest gains took place this year during Feb through Apr and the 4th through 8th losses. Every loss during those periods were greater than the corresponding gain. The 7 gains are the only ones since 2015 and the 8 losses are the only ones since 2016. If you review the gains and losses based on a percentage basis, no losses or gains since 2008 make the top 20 list.
Do not get excited by large daily gains. Gains are nice to have except the losses greater. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_daily_changes_in_the_Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average
Every now and then I see a report claiming that if you were not fully invested all the time you would have missed the best gains over the last 10, 20, … years. The reports are correct but they never point out the best gains happen about the same time the greatest losses happen. Just remember when you see a record up move it is possibly happening because the market is going down and it was just a bounce.
The IRS offers webinars of various topics which I watch to get the CPE credits and sometimes learn something. One I thought was interesting was on the DarkWeb. The recording of that webinar is availabe at https://www.irsvideos.gov/Individual/ScamsFraud/UnderstandingBasicsDarkWeb
SHealthCareServices has a price of 107.32, a sell price TBD, a rank of 01, and is a buy. (ETF – IHF, XLV)
I am not convinced the market is going up, do not know if it is going down. However Nov through Apr is the growth season and the numbers say buy. All in a all an unnerving time to buy.
My investment changes this weekend.
IRA#1
Invest 100% in SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)
IRA#2
Invest 20% in SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)
Also my ETF accounts are investing 10% in IHF and 10% in XLV. After market close I will put in stop loss orders.
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
10.35 01-22 FSHCX 107.32 SHealthCareServices Yes
4.59 02-06 FSUTX 89.56 SUtilities Yes
4.38 03-16 FSMEX 53.00 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices Yes
4.31 04-03 FSRNX 15.65 RealEstateIndex Yes
3.72 05-05 FIUIX 27.25 TelecomandUtilities Yes
3.67 06-05 FBMPX 78.95 SMultimedia Yes
3.55 07-22 FSPHX 25.73 SHealthCare Yes
3.31 08-04 FPHAX 21.02 SPharmaceuticals Yes
3.23 09-04 FDFAX 82.31 SConsumerStaples Yes
2.98 10-01 FRESX 41.96 RealEstateInvestment Yes
2.80 11-05 FRIFX 11.82 RealEstateIncome Yes
2.77 12-04 FEXPX 20.57 Export&Multinational Yes
2.77 13-04 FDGFX 29.11 DividendGrowth Yes
2.73 14-02 FSRPX 15.48 SRetailing Yes
2.64 15-05 FLATX 21.93 LatinAmerica
2.46 16-02 FSDCX 38.42 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
2.24 17-01 FTQGX 25.96 FocusedStock Yes
2.09 18-06 FSTCX 58.56 STelecommunications
1.92 19-01 FSPCX 67.14 SInsurance Yes
1.87 20-01 FLCEX 15.63 LargeCapCoreEnhancedIndex Yes
Last Week
5.79 01-21 FSHCX 102.32 SHealthCareServices
5.22 02-04 FLATX 22.45 LatinAmerica Yes
2.88 03-05 FSUTX 87.88 SUtilities
2.87 04-05 FSTCX 58.94 STelecommunications
2.76 05-04 FBMPX 78.11 SMultimedia
2.70 06-04 FIUIX 26.93 TelecomandUtilities
1.91 07-03 FDFAX 81.12 SConsumerStaples
1.76 08-01 FSDCX 38.11 SCommunicationsEquipment
1.73 09-04 FRIFX 11.68 RealEstateIncome
1.64 10-15 FSMEX 51.49 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
1.36 11-21 FSPHX 25.14 SHealthCare
1.28 12-04 FCONX 10.03 ConservativeIncomeBond
1.02 13-01 FSRPX 15.20 SRetailing
0.68 14-03 FPHAX 20.45 SPharmaceuticals
0.66 15-04 FWRLX 10.27 SWireless
0.52 16-03 FDGFX 28.43 DividendGrowth
0.51 17-02 FRXIX 15.04 RealEstateIndex – Inv
0.47 18-03 FEXPX 20.08 Export&Multinational
0.36 19-01 FEMEX 9.20 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
0.08 20-04 FGRTX 16.18 MegaCapStock
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Aug18 1m+6% 3m+1% 6m+4% 12m+12% 24m+22% 36m+49% 60m+57% 120m+9%
Average annual return since 1/82 12%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%
Aug18 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m+4% 12m+7% 24m+18% 36m+25% 60m+29% 120m+44%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%