The worst week since 2008, not a time to buy. The sum of all the deviations has been 1325, 851, and now 257.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 67, 00, and now 00.
So the next time the sum of all deviations exceeds 1000, it is not a time to buy. The volatility of the market the last two week has been a little extreme. I have no idea it the next move is up or down, but I am mostly in cash and plan to stay that way until the market volatility decreases and a trend developes.
IRA#1 and IRS#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 108.93, a sell price 114.02, and a rank of 28, and is a sell now. (ETF – ARKW – stopped out)
IRA#2
EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC has a price of 11.29, a sell price 11.93, and a rank of 15, and is a sell now. (ETF – EEMO – stopped out)
SRetailing has a price of 137.65, a sell price 141.45, a rank of 01, and is a sell on or after 2/15. (ETF – RTH – stopped out)
SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement has a price of 80.45, a sell price 84.05, a rank of 12, and is a sell on or after 2/21. (ETF – CHIX – stopped out)
EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica has a price of 10.37, a sell price 10.29, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – EMQQ – stopped out)
I called Fidelity to confirm the earliest “legal” sell date. I plan to sell on the weekend following that “legal” sell date – unless the fund price is above the sell price. Fidelity has decided that if a fund is sold within 30 days of purchase, you violate their short term trading restrictions. By violating the 30 day rule you get a call telling you not to do it. If you do second violation you get a restriction on how soon you can buy funds again. If you do a third your wait to buy is longer. No matter how absurd Fidelity’s rule, it is best to follow it. I’ve gotten that call for one sell in the past and suggested where they can put the rule. I’ve never done two violations.
All in all, I think it is just another way Fidelity chooses to charge invstors more. ETFs have no such rule and all my ETFs were stopped out. When the funds I’m selling get sold, I plan to compare my fund gain to my ETF gain.
My mutual fund portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – Sell SSemiconductors
IRA #2 – Sell SSemiconductors, and EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
11.34 01-13 FSRPX 137.65 SRetailing
9.62 02-05 FSDAX 172.45 SDefense&Aerospace
7.79 03-08 FEMEX 10.37 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
7.41 04-05 FBSOX 55.64 SITServices
6.79 05-05 FSCPX 42.23 SConsumerDiscretionary
6.78 06-03 FSCSX 168.36 SSoftware&ITServices
6.27 07-01 FSDCX 36.80 SCommunicationsEquipment
5.80 08-03 FSCOX 19.29 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
5.43 09-02 FSPTX 180.23 STechnology
5.40 10-03 FCNTX 122.16 Contrafund
5.34 11-06 FTQGX 22.93 FocusedStock
5.20 12-11 FSLBX 80.45 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
4.97 13-03 FBGRX 88.10 BlueChipGrowth
4.94 14-09 FHKCX 35.25 ChinaReqion
4.90 15-07 FPEMX 11.29 EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC
4.88 16-02 FSVLX 15.83 SConsumerFinance
4.78 17-02 FJSCX 18.58 JapanSmallerCompanies
4.71 18-01 FSUIX 13.32 LargeCapGrowthIndex – IC
4.62 19-01 FLGEX 18.73 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex
4.59 20-01 FTRNX 97.86 Trend
Last week
17.03 01-12 FSRPX 143.82 SRetailing
15.80 02-04 FSDAX 181.24 SDefense&Aerospace
13.87 03-07 FSENX 46.97 SEnergy
13.33 04-08 FHKCX 37.97 ChinaReqion
13.04 05-07 FEMEX 10.83 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica
12.65 06-04 FSCPX 44.39 SConsumerDiscretionary
11.92 07-02 FSCSX 175.84 SSoftware&ITServices
11.89 08-05 FBSOX 57.73 SITServices
11.79 09-02 FSCOX 20.32 InternationalSmallCapOpportunities
11.69 10-06 FPEMX 11.99 EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC
11.54 11-02 FCNTX 130.86 Contrafund
11.49 12-10 FSLBX 85.03 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
11.46 13-01 FIDSX 119.87 SFinancialServices
11.04 14-01 FJSCX 19.64 JapanSmallerCompanies
10.92 15-01 FSPTX 189.07 STechnology
10.80 16-01 FSVLX 16.68 SConsumerFinance
10.75 17-05 FTQGX 24.04 FocusedStock
10.67 18-01 FMAGX 110.36 Magellan
10.64 19-03 FEMKX 33.94 EmergingMarkets
10.62 20-02 FBGRX 92.60 BlueChipGrowth
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
Dec17 1m-1% 3m+7% 6m+18% 12m+18% 24m+46% 36m+28% 60m+92% 120m-5%
Nov17 1m+0% 3m+9% 6m+16% 12m+26% 24m+45% 36m+32% 60m+97% 120m-8%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from EmergingMarketsIndex – InvC(FPEMX)(24Jul17)
20% – CashReserves(FDRXX)(12Feb18) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(26Dec17)
20% – EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(FEMEX)(29Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement(FSLBX)(22Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jan18) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Dec17 1m-0% 3m+4% 6m+7% 12m+13% 24m+23% 36m+22% 60m+35% 120m+41%
Nov17 1m+1% 3m+4% 6m+5% 12m+16% 24m+21% 36m+23% 60m+35% 120m+33%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%