Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -467, -164, and now -472 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 00, 00, and now 08.
In reviewing some of the market indicators, SPY (S&P500 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 12Oct, QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 06Oct, IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) crossed below its 50 day moving average on 28Sep, and my sum of all the deviations went negative on 12Oct. They still say do not buy.
There is an indicator called the death cross. It is when the 50 moving average going down crosses the 200 day moving average and indicates a bear market. Don sent me a note reminding me of this indicator. If you go to stockcharts.com and enter $SPX for the S&P 500 you can see the death cross on 12/08 or maybe 12/09. If you enter $COMPQ for the Nasdaq Composite you can see the death cross about 27 Nov. When the 50 day moving average going up cross the 200 day moving average you have a golden cross which indicates a bull market. There is nothing magic about these crosses, but if enough investors follow them they become true.
Otavio (Tavi) Costa on Twitter “Rallies in the S&P 500 as big or greater than last week accompanied by a rise in US Treasuries only happened 3 times since 2000. All of them proved to be bear market rallies.” 09/28/01, 08/09/02, 11/28/08, and now 11/30/18.
So Fidelity again posted Thursday’s prices on their web site and said they were Friday prices. I called Fidelity and the idiot representative explained that the most current prices on Friday (“as of 12/09/18”) were Thursday’s until it is updated with Friday’s. I disagreed and he explained that to me several more times. I finally asked him why on Friday at 5PM it said “as of 12/08/18” and now it says “as of 12/09/18” and the numbers are the same. He had no answer as I pointed out that YahooFinance had the Friday prices about 6pm and now it was 7pm and Fidelity still had Thursday prices labeled as Friday prices. I suggest he ask the “as of” date be updated AFTER the prices were updated. This has happened before and from now on I will check with YahooFinance to see if Fidelity’s numbers are correct for Fidelity funds! I’ve been investing with Fidelity for over 40 years and have had many good conversations with their representative, but several time a year end up talking to one of their idiots.
SHealthCareServices has a price of 102.14, a sell price 102.85, a rank of 04, and is a sell but Fidelity rules tell me I cannot sell before 12/12. (ETF – IHF, XLV)
At this time I plan to sell SHealthCareServices next weekend and make sure my stoploss is up to date on my ETFs.
My investment changes this weekend.
IRA#1
None
IRA#2
None
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
5.55 01-07 FSRNX 15.98 RealEstateIndex Yes
5.00 02-10 FSUTX 90.46 SUtilities Yes
4.54 03-05 FRESX 42.86 RealEstateInvestment
3.64 04-26 FSHCX 102.14 SHealthCareServices
3.00 05-09 FIUIX 27.19 TelecomandUtilities Yes
2.77 06-04 FEMEX 9.23 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
2.58 07-09 FRIFX 11.85 RealEstateIncome Yes
0.83 08-01 FCONX 10.01 ConservativeIncomeBond
0.55 09-09 FLATX 21.12 LatinAmerica
0.26 10-01 FSAGX 17.18 SGold
0.11 11-08 FPHAX 20.43 SPharmaceuticals
-0.75 12-10 FSTCX 57.09 STelecommunications
-0.89 13-20 FSMEX 50.44 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
-1.00 14-02 FBMPX 75.52 SCommunicationServices
-1.48 15-08 FDFAX 78.63 SConsumerStaples
-1.51 16-05 FSPHX 24.49 SHealthCare
-1.62 17-01 FIREX 10.99 InternationalRealEstate Yes
-1.71 18-01 FCVSX 27.57 ConvertibleSecurities
-2.02 19-04 FDLSX 15.26 SLeisure
-2.39 20-02 FTQGX 21.65 FocusedStock
Last Week
10.06 01-25 FSHCX 108.26 SHealthCareServices
4.40 02-06 FSRNX 15.76 RealEstateIndex
3.82 03-19 FSMEX 52.86 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices
3.78 04-08 FLATX 22.29 LatinAmerica
3.33 05-09 FSTCX 59.46 STelecommunications
3.26 06-01 FBMPX 78.81 SMultimedia
3.19 07-04 FSPHX 25.68 SHealthCare
3.07 08-03 FDLSX 16.07 SLeisure
2.95 09-07 FPHAX 21.01 SPharmaceuticals
2.63 10-08 FIUIX 27.05 TelecomandUtilities
2.41 11-09 FSUTX 87.99 SUtilities
2.09 12-03 FEMEX 9.37 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA)
2.04 13-03 FSRFX 101.53 STransportation
2.02 14-04 FRESX 41.73 RealEstateInvestment
1.94 15-08 FRIFX 11.76 RealEstateIncome
1.72 16-07 FEXPX 20.38 Export&Multinational
1.68 17-07 FDGFX 28.83 DividendGrowth
1.37 18-02 FSAIX 79.58 SAirTransportation
1.31 19-07 FDFAX 80.92 SConsumerStaples
1.03 20-01 FTQGX 25.62 FocusedStock
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+6% 6m+6% 12m+12% 24m+23% 36m+51% 60m+50% 120m+10%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SMedicalTechnologyandDevices(FSMEX)(04Sep18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SSoftware&ITServices(FSCSX)(16Jul18)
20% – Cash(15Oct18) from SRetailing(FSRPX)(16Jul18)
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+2%
Sep18 1m+1% 3m+5% 6m+5% 12m+8% 24m+18% 36m+26% 60m+27% 120m+46%%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%