Next weekend I expect to be out of town and unable to produce this report until the following Wednesday. Make sure your watch your investments and remember that a distribution of $1.00 will decrease the price by $1.00 so the sell price needs to be decreased also.
I’ve said that the FED pumping money into the market is like holding a match under the thermostat during cold weather. The numbers go higher but it does nothing about the economy or the real temperature – the economy is still bad and you are still cold. This is an interesting article about The FED’s actions.
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/party-like-its-1999-the-stock-market-is-a-propaganda-tool/ “This does not end well.”
Chuck Jaffe on his MoneyLife show on 09Dec featured an interview with Martin Pring of Pring Research where Pring indicates that he is quite bullish for the next 6 months. On the show for 08Dec Jaffe interviewed author David Scranton of Sound Income Strategies whose book is “Return on Principle: 7 Core Values to Help Protect Your Money in Good Times and Bad.” Scranton indicated in the interview that in 2007 he worked to get his clients out of the market and in many ways today’s market is 2007 all over again. He says if we do not have a 30% drop from today’s level we will be breaking three world records regarding previous stock market actions. He indicates the DJIA could hit 20k first but it also could be a 70% drop. The drop will last between 12 to 36 months. He does not know what trigger will start this drop or how soon it will start.
“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Friday, 09Nov, the short term outlook is neutral to bullish, intermediate term is neutral to bullish, long term outlook is neutral to bullish –
improving but expecting a short term pull back.
My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 88.51, 50 day MA of 83.59, a 200 day MA of 81.08, and a 7% stop loss is 82.51. This is not an investment to buy and hold.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest.
I am really not sure how long the market “Trump Bump” will last but will stay with it for now.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.69, a sell price 31.06, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.11)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 95.54, a sell price 90.76, a rank of 10, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 67.01)
SComputers has a price of 80.28, a sell price 76.27, a rank of 25, and is a hold for now. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 112.94)
STransportation has a price of 95.42, a sell price 90.65, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.84)
SNaturalGas has a price of 30.44, a sell price TBD, a rank of 02, and is a Buy. (ETF – XES – current stoploss TBD)
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – purchase SNaturalGas
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
25.07 01-08 FSRBX 32.69 SBanking
18.21 02-04 FSNGX 30.44 SNaturalGas Yes
18.00 03-02 FSESX 55.64 SEnergyService Yes
17.91 04-06 FSRFX 95.42 STransportation
17.62 05-05 FSLBX 70.97 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
16.91 06-06 FSAIX 76.94 SAirTransportation
16.68 07-04 FCPEX 14.49 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
16.60 08-05 FIDSX 100.76 SFinancialServices
16.03 09-05 FARNX 13.25 EventDrivenOpportunities
14.93 10-23 FSELX 95.54 SSemiconductors
14.51 11-04 FSENX 48.16 SEnergy Yes
14.08 12-05 FSVLX 13.92 SConsumerFinance
12.31 13-02 FNARX 31.47 SNaturalResources Yes
12.00 14-07 FSDAX 137.68 SDefense&Aerospace
11.50 15-01 FDSCX 26.61 StockSelectorSmallCap
11.40 16-05 FSPCX 78.63 SInsurance
11.32 17-02 FFGCX 11.56 GlobalCommodity Stock Yes
11.19 18-02 FSCHX 157.91 SChemicals Yes
11.12 19-01 FSSPX 18.99 SmallCapIndex – IC
10.76 20-05 FLCSX 29.75 LargeCapStock
Last week:
19.91 01-07 FSRBX 30.93 SBanking
16.61 02-03 FSNGX 29.74 SNaturalGas Yes
14.29 03-01 FSESX 53.38 SEnergyService Yes
14.27 04-05 FSRFX 91.60 STransportation
13.69 05-03 FSENX 47.45 SEnergy Yes
13.42 06-05 FSAIX 73.98 SAirTransportation
13.40 07-04 FSLBX 67.79 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.17 08-06 FSDAX 137.02 SDefense&Aerospace
11.93 09-04 FIDSX 95.88 SFinancialServices
11.71 10-01 FNARX 31.10 SNaturalResources Yes
10.50 11-04 FCPEX 13.69 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
9.86 12-03 FARNX 12.44 EventDrivenOpportunities
9.73 13-22 FSELX 90.50 SSemiconductors
8.84 14-04 FSPCX 76.36 SInsurance
8.71 15-01 FFGCX 11.39 GlobalCommodity Stock Yes
8.22 16-01 FSCHX 152.79 SChemicals Yes
7.99 17-04 FSVLX 13.08 SConsumerFinance
7.61 18-02 FSCGX 41.57 SIndustrialEquipment
7.57 19-04 FLCSX 28.73 LargeCapStock
7.41 20-0 FLVEX 11.93 LargeCapValueEnchncedIndex
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-8% 3m-6% 6m-1% 12m+10% 24m+6% 36m+11% 60m44% 120m-1%
Sep16 1m+1% 3m+8% 6m+32% 12m+23% 24m+9% 36m+22% 60m52% 120m+6%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Oct16 1m-5% 3m-6% 6m+4% 12m+1% 24m+7% 36m+4% 60m+15% 120m+17%
Sep16 1m+2% 3m+3% 6m+13% 12m+7% 24m+9% 36m+8% 60m+20% 120m+20%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%