A good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been -618, -536, and now -125 – up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 30, 22, and now 69.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 7% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 12% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 9% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is negative.
Most of the market pundits I listen to claim this is a bear market bounce thanks to the trillions printed by the Federal Reserve Board and the stimulus. Like 1929 the DJIA has had a nice bounce – in 1929 was up ~66% from the bottom to the next peak about 5 months later before declining ~80% over the next 3 years. Currently the DJIA is up ~70% from the latest 23Mar bottom.
Another factor of concern is the number of stocks up and number down. Reviewing ETF QQQ which follow the NASDAQ 100 index, the top 10 stocks account for more than 50% of the index as it goes up. The advance decline index measures the advancing vs declining stock issues and is negative for the QQQ. Not a good sign.
IRA#1
No investments
IRA#2
No investments
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 00% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
27.20 01-07 FSAGX 29.31 SGold NO
10.32 02-05 FBGRX 113.00 BlueChipGrowth NO
9.96 03-04 FSPTX 20.44 STechnology YES
9.81 04-02 FSCSX 20.85 SSoftware&ITServices YES
9.36 05-19 FTRNX 111.28 Trend NO
9.25 06-16 FOCPX 13.13 OTCPortfolio NO
8.83 07-04 FIFNX 12.33 Founders NO
8.60 08-05 FNCMX 114.76 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
8.01 09-01 FBIOX 21.66 SBiotechnology NO
7.58 10-09 FSPHX 28.70 SHealthCare NO
7.17 11-10 FLGEX 21.80 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
6.99 12-10 FPHAX 23.04 SPharmaceuticals NO
6.73 13-05 FCNTX 13.79 Contrafund NO
6.62 14-11 FHKCX 39.24 ChinaRegion NO
6.33 15-11 FSEAX 45.34 EmergingAsia NO
6.24 16-04 FSMEX 59.49 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
5.87 17-01 FSRPX 16.74 SRetailing YES
5.83 18-01 FDEQX 39.55 DisciplinedEquity YES
5.76 19-01 FTQGX 25.90 FocusedStock NO
5.73 20-01 FFIDX 50.52 Fidelity NO
Last Week
23.32 01-06 FSAGX 28.01 SGold NO
4.92 02-09 FPHAX 22.51 SPharmaceuticals NO
3.91 03-18 FTRNX 105.22 Trend NO
3.46 04-08 FSPHX 27.49 SHealthCare NO
3.27 05-15 FOCPX 12.35 OTCPortfolio NO
3.16 06-04 FBGRX 105.09 BlueChipGrowth NO
2.86 07-04 FNCMX 108.21 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
2.69 08-03 FIFNX 11.58 Founders NO
2.68 09-04 FSHCX 98.66 SHealthCareServices NO
2.67 10-09 FNBGX 17.36 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
2.66 11-10 FHKCX 37.65 ChinaRegion NO
2.59 12-09 FLGEX 20.79 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
2.12 13-01 FSCSX 19.29 SSoftware&ITServices NO
2.05 14-03 FSPTX 18.87 STechnology NO
1.98 15-04 FCNTX 13.13 Contrafund NO
1.70 16-07 FFIDX 48.45 Fidelity NO
1.64 17-03 FSMEX 56.73 SMedicalTechnologyandDevices NO
1.58 18-10 FSEAX 43.17 EmergingAsia NO
1.25 19-01 FSTGX 11.16 IntermediateGovernmentIncome NO
1.25 20-01 FSRPX 15.96 SRetailing NO
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(23Mar20) from STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20)
Mar20 1m-21% 3m-31% 6m-17% 12m-17% 24m-25%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(23Mar20) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from STechnology(21Jan20)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from SWireless(21Oct19)
Mar20 1m-3% 3m-7% 6m-0% 12m+0% 24m-4%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%