An ok week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 156, 288, and now 270 – not up 2 weeks in a row
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 53, 54, and now 39.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
However, it should be pointed out that while all the indexes are above their short term 50 day moving average, they are still all below their 200 day long term moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Time to buy but not this week.
I think it is interesting to look at the Pacer Trendpilot ETFs which invest in indexes or T-bills based on the index price vs its 200 day moving average. All 4 ETFs are invested in T-bills. They got close to investing in their index this week but only close. I think these are a great buy and hold investment.
This week’s MacroVoices podcast (you can listen online) is still claiming we are in a bounce up in a down market. That seems to be the consensus for several of the reports I hear and read. I even heard a push for the Kondratiev wave (the Financial Winter Is Coming). It is a 40 to 60 year cycle which last hit in 1973 (according to this author) and was going to come again soon.
I do my own taxes at home using HRBlock software. When I went into the program today, it said I had a 07Feb update installed and it would not let me efile until I installed a 07Feb update (which I tried 9 times). I finally gave up and chatted with customer service. My 6 hour headache with this software finally ended with the 6th rep who said delete and reinstall the software. It seem there was no 07Feb update – it was put off until 15Feb. It was not a fun 6 hours. Not ready for prime time customer service.
IRA#1
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.39, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
IRA#2
LatinAmerica has a price of 24.39, a sell price 23.88, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, FBZ)
SITServices has a price of 6.22, a sell price 59.11, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SGold has a price of 18.91, a sell price 17.96, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GDXJ)
My investment changes this weekend.
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
11.79 01-18 FLATX 24.39 LatinAmerica
8.83 02-05 FRESX 43.36 RealEstateInvestment Yes
8.65 03-02 FSDAX 16.39 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
8.65 04-05 FBSOX 62.22 SITServices Yes
8.23 05-03 FSAGX 18.91 SGold
7.76 06-03 FSRNX 16.15 RealEstateIndex Yes
6.57 07-05 FHKCX 32.32 ChinaReqion
6.17 08-05 FSVLX 15.23 SConsumerFinance Yes
5.71 09-01 FCYIX 32.46 SIndustrials Yes
5.12 10-05 FDSCX 22.28 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
5.06 11-03 FMEIX 14.04 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
4.96 12-02 FBMPX 73.99 SCommunicationServices
4.95 13-01 FSRFX 93.99 STransportation Yes
4.93 14-05 FSSNX 19.27 SmallCapIndex Yes
4.85 15-04 FSLCX 15.84 SmallCapStock
4.82 16-01 FSPTX 14.79 STechnology Yes
4.68 17-04 FDSSX 42.23 StockSelectorAllCap
4.59 18-05 FCPEX 11.90 SmallCapEnhancedIndex
4.53 19-01 FSMDX 20.87 MidCapIndex Yes
4.45 20-03 FSEAX 39.63 EmergingAsia
Last Week
15.95 01-17 FLATX 25.14 LatinAmerica Yes
9.97 02-02 FSAGX 19.13 SGold Yes
7.17 03-04 FRESX 42.50 RealEstateInvestment Yes
7.14 04-04 FHKCX 32.38 ChinaReqion Yes
7.09 05-04 FBSOX 61.05 SITServices Yes
6.12 06-02 FSRNX 15.84 RealEstateIndex Yes
5.96 07-04 FSVLX 15.15 SConsumerFinance Yes
5.88 08-11 FEMEX 9.57 EmergingEuropeMiddleEastAfrica(EMEA) Yes
5.68 09-01 FSDAX 15.87 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
5.52 10-01 FBMPX 74.19 SCommunicationServices
5.51 11-03 FSLCX 15.90 SmallCapStock Yes
4.98 12-02 FSPHX 24.26 SHealthCare Yes
4.98 13-04 FDSCX 22.19 StockSelectorSmallCap Yes
4.97 14-02 FMEIX 13.99 MidCapEnchancedIndex Yes
4.88 15-04 FSSNX 19.21 SmallCapIndex
4.87 16-01 FDVLX 9.81 Value
4.85 17-04 FCPEX 11.90 SmallCapEnhancedIndex Yes
4.69 18-03 FDSSX 42.13 StockSelectorAllCap
4.65 19-01 FSLSX 34.05 ValueStrategies Yes
4.53 20-02 FSEAX 39.57 EmergingAsia Yes
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
Nov18 1m+2% 3m-5% 6m-3% 12m-2% 24m+24% 36m+42% 60m+35% 120m+3%
Oct18 1m-8% 3m-1% 6m-3% 12m-3% 24m+23% 36m+35% 60m+36% 120m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX)(22Jan19) from Cash(17Dec18)
20% – Cash(17Dec18) from SHealthCareServices(FSHCX)(12Nov18)
20% – Cash(29Oct18) from STransportation(FSRFX)(24Sep18)
Nov18 1m+1% 3m-7% 6m-4% 12m-5% 24m+10% 36m+10% 60m+16% 120m+33%
Oct18 1m-9% 3m-5% 6m-4% 12m-4% 24m+12% 36m+14% 60m+16% 120m+32%
Average annual return since 1/82 10%