So the DJIA was down 100 on Thursday when one of the head bankers in the EU said there was a guarantee that the EU would continue printing money, and the market went up 100 in the next 5 minutes. We are no longer in a market controlled by fear and greed, we are controlled by the various governmental central bankers. It is really amazing how much of markets countries now own. For example Switzerland has just over $1B invested in Apple. It is an investment, unlike those countries who buy their countries stock to keep the market up. The bank of Japan owns 60% of the ETF representing the Nikkei 225 stock average which helps keep the market up.
One of the more interesting aspects of this weeks market is the drop in the price of gold. The Fidelity Fund FSAGX fell by 13% this week. I was listening to a podcast Follow the Money where the gold guy claimed it was only paper gold price (stock market investments) not the physical gold price which went down. However the physical gold ETF dropped as much as FSAGX.
The MoneyLife podcast on 03Oct included an interview with Harry Dent Jr. Dent has been claiming a market drop of about 70% for several years. His latest book is titled “The Sale of a Lifetime: How the Great Bubble Burst of 2017 Can Make You Rich.” He thinks there are many catalysts to cause this and the top 3 of these are: 1. Deutsche Bank and other EU banks. 2. The oil frackers could only exist with zero interest rates and oil prices above 100. (He thinks oil is going to $20.) 3. The China real estate market where new SMALL apartments in Shenzhen cost $2000 per square foot – that is 66 sq for $132,000.
On Wall Street Week Steve Einhorn, a co-founder of a major money management firm, says there are 5 requirements which are always met at a market top. None of the 5 are met at this time. I guess I should not be concerned.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed uptrend” as of 21Sep. Time to invest. I continue to be surprised that the market is going up. There are so many negatives but as long as the various countries continue to keep rates low or negative it looks like the market will continue up.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 42.99, a sell price of 41.36, a rank of 08, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 135.87)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 93.10, a sell price 88.45, a rank of 01, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 64.75)
SNaturalGas has a price of 27.23, a sell price 25.87, a rank of 06, and is a hold. (ETF – PSCE – current stoploss 17.35)
SComputers has a price of 77.87, a sell price 73.98, a rank of 05, and is a hold. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 105.48)
SEnergyService has a price of 48.81, a sell price TBD, a rank of 12, and is a buy. (ETF – XES – purchased on 10/10)
With all the problems in the world I am concerned about this weeks purchase. However, the numbers say buy so I am, just concerned. SEnergyService is one of 5 funds, out of the 120 I follow, which is a buy.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Purchase SEnergyService FSESX
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
17.15 01-14 FSELX 93.10 SSemiconductors
10.87 02-02 FSNGX 27.23 SNaturalGas Yes
10.29 03-12 FSPTX 135.18 STechnology
10.07 04-12 FSDCX 32.34 SCommunicationsEquipment
9.89 05-10 FDCPX 77.87 SComputers
9.77 06-16 FLATX 21.68 LatinAmerica
9.55 07-02 FSENX 44.38 SEnergy
8.93 08-26 FSMEX 42.99 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
8.24 09-17 FTEMX 11.45 TotalEmergingMarkets
8.13 10-02 FNARX 29.38 SNaturalResources
7.85 11-12 FSCSX 134.91 SSoftware&ITServices
6.70 12-01 FSESX 48.81 SEnergyService Yes
6.57 13-01 FSRBX 26.09 SBanking
6.39 14-12 FOCPX 86.56 OTCPortfolio
6.34 15-05 FISMX 24.67 InternationalSmallCap
6.33 16-05 FPBFX 29.33 PacificBasin
6.10 17-01 FSLBX 61.36 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
6.09 18-01 FEMKX 24.64 EmergingMarkets
5.96 19-02 FNCMX 69.94 NasdaqCompositeIndex
5.69 20-04 FJPNX 12.55 Japan
Last week
17.69 01-13 FSELX 92.69 SElectronics
10.93 02-09 FDCPX 78.20 SComputers Yes
10.82 03-11 FSPTX 135.10 STechnology Yes
10.45 04-11 FSDCX 32.28 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
10.32 05-01 FSNGX 26.94 SNaturalGas Yes
9.88 06-25 FSMEX 43.16 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
9.68 07-38 FSAGX 24.54 SGold
9.56 08-01 FSENX 44.16 SEnergy Yes
8.93 09-01 FNARX 29.47 SNaturalResources Yes
8.51 10-11 FSCSX 135.18 SSoftware&ITServices
8.14 11-14 FTEMX 11.39 TotalEmergingMarkets
7.69 12-04 FISMX 24.90 InternationalSmallCap Yes
7.60 13-04 FPBFX 29.58 PacificBasin
7.45 14-11 FOCPX 87.13 OTCPortfolio
7.33 15-15 FLATX 21.09 LatinAmerica
7.19 16-03 FJPNX 12.69 Japan
7.10 17-02 FJSCX 15.46 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
6.99 18-03 FCPGX 20.39 SmallCapGrowth
6.87 19-01 FSLEX 21.55 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy Yes
6.65 20-01 FNCMX 70.18 NasdaqCompositeIndex
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m+1% 3m+14% 6m+31% 12m+22% 24m+7% 36m+29% 60m51% 120m+9%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-7% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24-1% 36m+13% 60m+8% 120m-2%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SEnergyService(FSESX)(10Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(22Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Aug16 1m-2% 3m+8% 6m+13% 12m+6% 24m+6% 36m+9% 60m+18% 120m+22%
Jul16 1m-6% 3m-1% 6m+4% 12m-9% 24m-1% 36m-9% 60m+2% 120m+14%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%