Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 263, 081, and now 479 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 06, 00, and now 08.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 0% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 1% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 2% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM is still below their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.
So in January the Federal Reserve Board decided to quit raising interest rates and the market quit going down. This week the FED suggested they would reduce interest rates and the market quit going down. One of these days the FED will try it again and it will not work. There is also something to worry about when the economy is at a peak and the FED cannot raise rates without killing the market.
There is an interesting article in Seeking Alpha – https://seekingalpha.com/article/4269235-gold-surges-near-breakout. Several reports I heard claim that when gold finally closes at a new bull market high (>$1,365) it will be time to buy. SGold fund from Fidelity is performing well also.
Fidelity is back to not reporting fund distributions the weekend they occur. 5 of the funds I follow had a distribution, but it was not reported on the list of all YTD distribution. So when they get around to reporting them the results could be some minor changes in the relative fund rankings.
IRA#1
No Investments
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 70.75, a sell price 67.21, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.43, a sell price 16.56, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 00% invested
IRA #2 – 40% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
01-22 11.57 FBSOX 70.75 SITServices NO
02-02 10.87 FSAGX 19.66 SGold YES
03-05 10.22 FSPCX 62.32 SInsurance NO
04-16 8.35 FSPTX 16.69 STechnology NO
05-09 8.19 FSHOX 56.43 SConstructionandHousing NO
06-03 8.10 FSDAX 17.43 SDefense&Aerospace NO
07-04 8.04 FRESX 45.35 RealEstateInvestment NO
08-15 8.04 FSCSX 18.16 SSoftware&ITServices NO
09-21 7.85 FSVLX 16.65 SConsumerFinance NO
10-01 7.73 FSDPX 68.06 SMaterials NO
11-01 7.71 FSCHX 12.69 SChemicals NO
12-03 7.60 FSUTX 90.22 SUtilities NO
13-05 7.58 FTRNX 104.24 Trend NO
14-04 7.16 FIVFX 21.41 InternationalCapApp NO
15-03 7.05 FNBGX 13.75 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex NO
16-04 6.83 FSRNX 16.70 RealEstateIndex NO
17-01 6.73 FSELX 9.35 SSemiconductors NO
18-03 6.35 FDFFX 36.60 Independence NO
19-13 6.34 FTQGX 24.77 FocusedStock NO
20-02 6.16 FIUIX 27.20 Telecom&Utilities NO
Last Week
01-21 8.34 FBSOX 68.28 SITServices NO
02-02 7.29 FNBGX 13.73 Long-TermTreasuryBond NO
03-04 6.35 FSPCX 59.81 SInsurance NO
04-01 5.90 FSAGX 18.67 SGold NO
05-03 5.85 FRESX 44.51 RealEstateInvestment NO
06-03 4.87 FSRNX 16.46 RealEstateIndex NO
07-14 4.86 FSCSX 17.55 SSoftware&ITServices NO
08-20 4.78 FSVLX 16.11 SConsumerFinance NO
09-02 4.41 FSUTX 87.19 SUtilities NO
10-03 4.35 FIVFX 20.77 InternationalCapApp NO
11-01 3.95 FEMEX 9.58 EmergingEMEA NO
12-02 3.91 FRIFX 12.27 RealEstateIncome NO
13-08 3.63 FSHOX 53.82 SConstructionandHousing NO
14-04 3.46 FTRNX 99.85 Trend NO
15-02 3.39 FSDAX 16.60 SDefense&Aerospace NO
16-01 3.14 FLATX 24.38 LatinAmerica NO
17-15 3.02 FSPTX 15.80 STechnology NO
18-01 2.87 FEDDX 13.01 EmergingMarketsDiscovery NO
19-12 2.65 FTQGX 23.83 FocusedStock NO
20-02 2.57 FDFFX 35.18 Independence NO
It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – Cash(13May19) from ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19)
May19 1m-7% 3m-9% 6m-16% 12m-19% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(20May19) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(15Apr19)
20% – Cash(13May19) from ChinaRegion(FSHCX)(08Apr19)
20% – Cash(22Apr19) from SGold(FSAGX)(03Feb19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
May19 1m-6% 3m-4% 6m-4% 12m-8% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
ETFs
PTNQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+4% 6m-5% 12m+10%
QQQ Mar19 1m+4% 3m+16% 6m-3% 12m+13%
TQQQ Mar19 1m+11% 3m+53% 6m-20% 12m+18%