Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 781, -343, and now -319 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 03, 00, and now 00.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 6% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 6% below its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 11% below its 50 day moving average,
QQQ is above its 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is negative.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.
There are ETFs which go up as the market goes down.
SH is the inverse of SPY and is 8% above its 50 day average.
PSQ is the inverse of QQQ and is 5% above its 50 day average.
RWM is the inverse of IWM and is 12% above its 50 day average.
An unusual week. QQQ was up 5.2% on Monday, down 3.4% on Tuesday, up 4.2% on Wednesday, down 3.2% on Thursday, and down another 1.8% on Friday. Finally for the week QQQ was up 1.0%. The Federal Reserve Board dropped the interest rates to stimulate business and the Coronavirus is negatively impacting business. I am afraid the Coronoavirus may be the stronger influence for a while.
IRA#1
STechnology has a price of 19.61, a sell price 21.22, a rank of 06, and is a hold until 3/19/20. (ETF – FTXL, SOXX)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 11.31, a sell price 12.51, a rank of 18, and is a hold until 3/19/20 (ETF – XLK, IETC )
IRA#1 STechnology and IRA#2 Semiconductors were purchased on 2/18 and cannot be sold before 3/19 without breaking the Fidelity rules against short term trading.
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 20% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
10.80 01-03 FSAGX 24.92 SGold NO
5.55 02-01 FPHAX 22.71 SPharmaceuticals NO
5.32 03-05 FBIOX 21.44 SBiotechnology NO
5.28 04-02 FHKCX 38.83 ChinaRegion NO
5.13 05-02 FSEAX 45.34 EmergingAsia NO
4.21 06-41 FSPTX 19.61 STechnology NO
3.40 07-01 FSHCX 101.05 SHealthCareServices NO
3.26 08-30 FWRLX 10.89 SWireless NO
2.80 09-01 FNBGX 17.26 Long-Term Treasury Bond Index NO
2.71 10-01 FSUTX 96.13 SUtilities NO
2.46 11-01 FSPHX 27.57 SHealthCare NO
2.45 12-17 FDCPX 79.79 SComputers NO
1.69 13-02 FRIFX 12.46 RealEstateIncome NO
1.31 14-38 FSCSX 19.52 SSoftware&ITServices NO
1.19 15-10 FTRNX 104.10 Trend NO
0.86 16-17 FOCPX 12.29 OTCPortfolio NO
0.84 17-01 FFIDX 49.03 Fidelity NO
0.57 18-37 FSELX 11.31 SSemiconductors NO
0.48 19-01 FLGEX 20.76 LargeCapGrowthEnhancedIndex NO
0.24 20-12 FNCMX 107.69 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
Last Week
4.71 01-40 FSPTX 19.66 STechnology NO
4.43 02-01 FHKCX 38.41 ChinaRegion NO
3.58 03-01 FSEAX 44.55 EmergingAsia NO
3.55 04-04 FBIOX 21.02 SBiotechnology NO
3.35 05-37 FSCSX 19.90 SSoftware&ITServices NO
2.02 06-36 FSELX 11.47 SSemiconductors NO
1.63 07-29 FWRLX 10.70 SWireless NO
1.11 08-16 FDCPX 78.64 SComputers NO
1.07 09-16 FOCPX 12.31 OTCPortfolio NO
0.76 10-01 FCVSX 30.27 ConvertibleSecurities NO
0.74 11-09 FTRNX 103.57 Trend NO
0.72 12-01 FRIFX 12.33 RealEstateIncome NO
0.27 13-08 FBGRX 104.70 BlueChipGrowth NO
0.20 14-06 FBSOX 73.65 SITServices NO
0.18 15-06 FSAVX 34.98 SAutomotive NO
0.13 16-11 FNCMX 107.56 NasdaqCompositeIndex NO
(0.15) 17-02 FSAGX 22.33 SGold NO
(0.24) 18-01 FEMKX 32.75 EmergingMarkets NO
(0.46) 19-01 FIVFX 21.77 InternationalCapApp NO
(0.49) 20-01 FDEGX 47.96 Growth Strategies NO
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – STechnology(FSPTX)(18Feb20) from Cash(03Feb20)
Nov19 1m+6% 3m-0% 6m+23% 12m+2%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(18Feb20) from Cash(03Feb20)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SHealthCareServices(09Dec19)
20% – Cash(03Feb20) from SComputers(16Dec19)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from STechnology(21Jan20)
20% – Cash(02Mar20) from SWireless(21Oct19)
Nov19 1m+1% 3m+1% 6m+8% 12m+3%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%