The latest issue of Doug Fabian’s podcast “ETF Success” features his opinion that the emerging markets should be the best place to invest now. His contention is with the dollar up they can sell more goods to the US. Also since the emerging market stocks are down so much they have a long way to go to hit a new high.
Consuelo Mack in her Wealthtrack show featured Ed Hyman, Wall Street’s #1 ranked economist for the last 36 years. Hyman does not see a recession coming in the US for years but there are some concerns. That also does not mean there won’t be a decline in the market sometime this year. He also pointed out that total debt was much higher now that it was in 2008.
I mentioned a couple of weeks ago some problems with the California Public Employees Retirement System. Today’s Palm Beach Post claims “Consultantants say pension fund projections could be too rosy.” The state of Florida lowered the projection rate of return down to 7.6% in October. It was 7.65%. The consultants think it should be about 7%. Page 8 of the “State Board of Administration, Florida Retirment System Trust Fund” says under Investment Returns “The Trust earned an overall investment return of .54% for fiscal year 2016…” It goes on to say that there are other ways to calculate the rate of return which may in a higher number. It is a long way from .54% to 7%.
“The DecisionPoint Report” from Stockcharts.com:
On Wednesday, 30Dec, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term is neutral to bullish, long term outlook is neutral to bullish.
On Friday, 06Jan, the short term outlook is neutral to bearish, intermediate term is neutral, long term outlook is neutral to bullish.
My S&P500 is in RSP (SPY EW) which has a price of 88.18, 50 day MA of 85.37, a 200 day MA of 82.01, and a 7% stop loss is 82.18. This is not an investment to buy and hold.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend” as of 08Dec. Time to invest. Except none of the top 20 out of 120 funds I follow is a buy.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SBanking has a price of 32.49, a sell price 30.92, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – KRE- current stoploss 52.51)
IRA#2
SSemiconductors has a price of 95.52, a sell price 92.44, a rank of 05, and is a hold. ( ETF – SMH – current stoploss 68.60)
SComputers has a price of 75.46, a sell price 71.73, a rank of 26, and is a hold for now. (ETF – SOXX – current stoploss 118.18)
STransportation has a price of 90.68, a sell price 88.92, a rank of 11, and is a hold. (ETF – XTN – current stoploss 52.76)
SNaturalGas has a price of 30.45, a sell price 28.93, a rank of 04, and is a Hold. (ETF – XES – current stoploss 22.06)
Generally I would be selling SComputers since it is not one of the top 20, however none of the top 20 have had an increasing deviation for two weeks.
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
19.78 01-12 FSRBX 32.49 SBanking
18.93 02-06 FSESX 58.13 SEnergyService
16.66 03-02 FBIOX 186.27 SBiotechnology
15.11 04-08 FSNGX 30.45 SNaturalGas
14.18 05-09 FARNX 13.39 EventDrivenOpportunities
13.40 06-09 FIDSX 99.92 SFinancialServices
13.28 07-09 FSLBX 69.37 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
12.27 08-27 FSELX 96.05 SSemiconductors
11.79 09-08 FCPEX 14.27 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
11.26 10-10 FSAIX 74.69 SAirTransportation
11.25 11-10 FSRFX 90.68 STransportation
11.18 12-08 FSENX 47.70 SEnergy
11.13 13-09 FSVLX 13.66 SConsumerFinance
10.56 14-09 FSHCX 84.34 SHealthCareServices
9.86 15-09 FNARX 31.30 SNaturalResources
9.75 16-01 FLCSX 30.05 LargeCapStock
9.64 17-11 FSDAX 131.76 SDefense&Aerospace
9.60 18-09 FSPCX 78.18 SInsurance
9.39 19-04 FCYIX 32.71 SIndustrials
9.31 20-01 FFGCX 11.54 GlobalCommodity Stock
Last week:
19.96 01-11 FSRBX 32.20 SBanking
15.31 02-05 FSESX 55.80 SEnergyService
12.84 03-08 FIDSX 98.72 SFinancialServices
12.71 04-07 FSNGX 29.58 SNaturalGas
12.38 05-26 FSELX 95.52 SSemiconductors
12.18 06-07 FCPEX 14.23 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
11.31 07-09 FSAIX 74.28 SAirTransportation
11.26 08-08 FARNX 12.95 EventDrivenOpportunities
11.19 09-09 FSRFX 90.09 STransportation
11.10 10-08 FSLBX 67.56 SBrokerageandInvestmentManagement
9.97 11-01 FBIOX 174.05 SBiotechnology
9.64 12-07 FSENX 46.76 SEnergy
9.50 13-08 FSVLX 13.38 SConsumerFinance
9.29 14-08 FSPCX 77.56 SInsurance
8.76 15-08 FSHCX 82.51 SHealthCareServices
8.73 16-03 FCYIX 32.35 SIndustrials
8.18 17-04 FDSCX 26.18 StockSelectorSmallCap
8.13 18-01 FEMEX 8.41 EmergingEMEA
8.00 19-10 FSDAX 129.13 SDefense&Aerospace
7.89 20-05 FNARX 30.58 SNaturalResources
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Nov16 1m+1% 3m-6% 6m-7% 12m+15% 24m+5% 36m+9% 60m52% 120m-5%
Oct16 1m-8% 3m-6% 6m-1% 12m+10% 24m+6% 36m+11% 60m44% 120m-1%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SNaturalGas(FSNGX)(12Dec16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – STransportation(FSRFX)(28Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SBanking(FSRBX)(21Nov16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SComputers(FDCPX)(03Oct16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SSemiconductors(FSELX)(08Aug16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Nov16 1m+3% 3m-1% 6m+7% 12m+4% 24m+7% 36m+6% 60m+19% 120m+21%
Oct16 1m-5% 3m-6% 6m+4% 12m+1% 24m+7% 36m+4% 60m+15% 120m+17%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%