A OK week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 708, 652, and now 733 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 54, 38, and now 32.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 4% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is 2% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY, QQQ and IWM are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.
www.macrovoices.com is the internet home of the MacroVoices interviews and podcasts. They have expanded their interviews from the Wednesday hour+ interview – this week MacroVoices #174 John Netto: Gold will hit $1500 this month – with two shorter weekly interviews. The all stars report – this week – All-Stars #27 Pippa Malmgren: Don’t underestimate the importance of data security – and energy week – this week – Energy Week #9: OPEC+, G20, And a Deep Dive on Forward Curves. The all stars is the most interesting of the two new reports. #27 is Pippa Malmgren – a outstanding economist. #26 is Juleitte Declercq – a good international view. #25 is Danielle DiMartino Booth – a former Federal Reserve Board employee who watches the FEB closely. In a previous interview Booth said in her time at the FRB a high number of the 1600+ employees were economic PHDs who spent all their time getting published in their unique economic specialties rather than working to produce better results from and for the FRB – our money at work.
IRA#1
SGold has a price of 21.57, a sell price 20.60, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GLD)
IRA#2
SITServices has a price of 73.19, a sell price 69.53, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – PSJ, FTXL)
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 17.99, a sell price 17.09, a rank of 12, and is a hold. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
SGold has a price of 21.57, a sell price 20.60, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GDX, GLD)
LatinAmerica has a price of 27.03, a sell price 25.68, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – EWZS, AGT)
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – None
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 80% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
17.42 01-06 FSAGX 21.57 SGold NO
12.69 02-26 FBSOX 73.19 SITServices NO
12.34 03-03 FSELX 10.05 SSemiconductors NO
11.86 04-03 FLATX 27.03 LatinAmerica NO
11.59 05-08 FSPCX 64.50 SInsurance NO
11.52 06-20 FSPTX 17.54 STechnology NO
10.79 07-13 FSHOX 59.00 SConstructionandHousing YES
10.64 08-19 FSCSX 18.96 SSoftware&ITServices NO
10.49 09-03 FHKCX 35.15 ChinaRegion YES
9.97 10-02 FSVLX 17.28 SConsumerFinance YES
9.81 11-09 FTRNX 108.35 Trend NO
9.57 12-03 FSDAX 17.99 SDefense&Aerospace NO
9.19 13-03 FSMEX 56.81 SMedicalEquipment&Systems YES
9.11 14-01 FIGFX 14.91 InternationalGrowth YES
8.98 15-01 FDFFX 38.11 Independence NO
8.87 16-01 FDLSX 16.32 SLeisure YES
8.87 17-01 FDEGX 48.44 Growth Strategies NO
8.69 18-08 FIVFX 22.09 InternationalCapApp NO
8.62 19-04 FEMEX 10.21 EmergingEMEA NO
8.60 20-01 FTQGX 25.70 FocusedStock NO
Last Week
01-05 19.11 FSAGX 21.68 SGold YES
02-02 12.74 FSELX 10.02 SSemiconductors YES
03-25 10.72 FBSOX 71.43 SITServices NO
04-07 9.84 FSPCX 63.10 SInsurance NO
05-19 9.77 FSPTX 17.16 STechnology NO
06-12 9.74 FSHOX 58.11 SConstructionandHousing YES
07-02 9.32 FSDAX 17.86 SDefense&Aerospace NO
08-01 9.31 FSDPX 69.95 SMaterials YES
09-02 9.24 FHKCX 34.56 ChinaRegion YES
10-01 9.16 FSCHX 13.03 SChemicals NO
11-02 9.08 FSMEX 56.48 SMedicalEquipment&Systems YES
12-02 8.98 FLATX 26.17 LatinAmerica NO
13-01 8.83 FSMVX 22.53 MidCapValue YES
14-18 8.68 FSCSX 18.52 SSoftware&ITServices NO
15-02 8.65 FFGCX 12.61 GlobalCommodity Stock YES
16-07 8.50 FIVFX 21.95 InternationalCapApp NO
17-03 8.47 FEMEX 10.15 EmergingEMEA NO
18-01 8.31 FSLEX 25.56 SEnvironmental&AltEnergy YES
19-01 8.31 FSVLX 16.93 SConsumerFinance YES
20-08 8.29 FTRNX 106.29 Trend NO
It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19) from Cash(13May19)
May19 1m-7% 3m-9% 6m-16% 12m-19% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – Cash(20May19) from SSemiconductors(FSELX)(15Apr19)
20% – LatinAmerica(FLATX(24Jun19) from Cash(13May19)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19) from Cash(13May19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
20% – SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19) from Cash(15Oct18)
May19 1m-6% 3m-4% 6m-4% 12m-8% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
ETFs
PTNQ May19 1m-8% 3m+1% 6m+1% 12m+1%
QQQ May19 1m-8% 3m-0% 6m+3% 12m+3%
TQQQ May19 1m-24% 3m-2% 6m-1% 12m-10%