Note from Monday’s 8/1/16 email from Gary Kaltbaum. http://garykaltbaum.com/another-investment-bank-bearish/. I hope the investment banks are wrong. If you sign up at his web site, gary.com, he will send you a daily market related email.
Each Thursday on Chuck Jaffee’s The MoneyLife Radio Program podcast a segment by Tom Lydon of ETF Trends is featured. Mr. Lydon presents the ETF of the week. On 04 Aug he featured EMB, an emerging markets bond fund denominated in dollars which has a 4.7% yield and he feels has the possibility of growth. He suggests you hold it until the price is exceed by the ETF’s 200 day moving average price but he expects it to be a long term hold.
Consuelo Mack has a PBS show (and website and podcast) called WealthTrack. As part of her 05 August show she talks with Stephen Cucchiaro who claims looking at past markets to figure out the future does not work this time. There have never been a time when 35% of world government bonds have negative yields. He also says the Federal Reserve Board and it’s increasing interest rates in December resulted in the ~15% market decline at the start of 2016. His best investment idea for now is Japan, but for a long term investment he likes
India. There are ~40 Japanese ETFs and ~12 India ETFs.
In the 27 July podcast from Dorsey Wright and Associates (DWA), # 556, Tom Dorsey indicates if the charts are correct the DJIA price objective this time between 20350 to 21700 – depending on the size of the boxes used in the chart. Dorsey and his firm are into Point and Figure Charting exclusively. About 20 of DWA’s momentum models are used as basis of ETFs. Some of the ETFs are PIZ,PIE,DWLV,PYZ,PEZ,PSL,PXI,PFI,PTH,PRN,PTF,PUI PDP,DWAQ,DWAS,DWTR,DWIN,DWAT,FV,and IFV.
IBD TBP’s Market Pulse is “Confirmed Uptrend”. Time to invest.
My current investments:
IRA#1 and IRA#2
SMedicalEquipment&Sytems has a price of 42.79, a sell price of 40.65, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – IHI current stoploss 134.52)
IRA#2
Telecom&Utilities has a price of 25.75, a sell price 25.23, a rank of 22, and is a sell. (ETF – PUI current stoploss 26.10)
RealEstatePortfolio has a price of 46.42, a sell price 44.98, a rank of 09, and is a hold. (ETF – REZ current stoploss 64.66)
SGold has a price of 27.42, a sell price 26.42, a rank of 01, and is a hold. (ETF – GLDX I was stopped out of this again)
LatinAmerica has a price of 21.50, a sell price 20.43, a rank of 03, and is a hold. (ETF – BRF current stop loss 16.51)
SElectronics has a price of 84.39, a sell price TBD, a rank of 04, and is a buy. ( ETF – SMH ).
My portfolio changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – None
IRA #2 – Sell Telecom&Utilities and buy SElectronics.
My portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 100% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
This week:
31.48 01-27 FSAGX 27.42 SGold
14.40 02-17 FSMEX 42.79 SMedicalEquipment&Systems
14.19 03-07 FLATX 21.50 LatinAmerica
14.09 04-05 FSELX 84.39 SElectronics Yes
11.73 05-03 FCPGX 20.67 SmallCapGrowth Yes
10.57 06-03 FOCPX 86.63 OTCPortfolio Yes
10.49 07-03 FSPTX 128.98 STechnology Yes
10.46 08-03 FSCSX 132.48 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
9.74 09-14 FRESX 46.42 RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio
9.19 10-06 FEMEX 8.11 EmergingEMEA
9.00 11-06 FTEMX 11.05 TotalEmergingMarkets Yes
8.43 12-29 FSTCX 71.64 STelecommunications
8.32 13-03 FSDCX 30.56 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
8.10 14-01 FDCPX 73.49 SComputers Yes
8.02 15-07 FPBFX 28.82 PacificBasin
7.67 16-01 FSDAX 124.68 SDefense&Aerospace Yes
7.52 17-01 FNCMX 68.87 NasdaqCompositeIndex Yes
7.51 18-02 FEMKX 24.18 EmergingMarkets Yes
7.43 19-01 FCPEX 12.63 SmallCapEnchancedIndex
7.18 20-02 FSRPX 111.36 SRetailing Yes
Last week
35.35 01-26 FSAGX 27.76 SGold
14.71 02-16 FSMEX 42.58 SMedicalEquipment&Systems Yes
13.46 03-04 FSELX 83.30 SElectronics Yes
12.75 04-06 FLATX 21.07 LatinAmerica
12.52 05-13 FRESX 47.35 RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio Yes
10.38 06-28 FSTCX 72.61 STelecommunications
9.73 07-02 FSCSX 130.88 SSoftware&ITServices Yes
9.46 08-05 FEMEX 8.09 EmergingEMEA
9.29 09-02 FOCPX 85.15 OTCPortfolio Yes
9.27 10-30 FIUIX 26.26 Telecom&Utilities
9.24 11-02 FSPTX 126.82 STechnology Yes
8.73 12-05 FTEMX 10.97 TotalEmergingMarkets Yes
8.49 13-01 FJSCX 15.32 JapanSmallerCompanies Yes
8.37 14-04 FSHOX 63.22 SConstruction&Housing Yes
8.29 15-06 FPBFX 28.77 PacificBasin
7.98 16-02 FSDCX 30.33 SCommunicationsEquipment Yes
7.97 17-14 FSUTX 77.02 SUtilities
7.81 18-02 FCPGX 19.82 SmallCapGrowth Yes
7.09 19-01 FSRPX 110.84 SRetailing
6.95 20-01 FEMKX 23.96 EmergingMarkets Yes
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jun16 1m+6% 3m+22% 6m+16% 12m-10% 24m+2% 36m+23% 60m+12% 120m-2%
May16 1m-7% 3m+16% 6m+8% 12m-19% 24m+2% 36m+17% 60m+6% 120m-12%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:)
20% – LatinAmreica(FLATX)(25Jul16) from JapanSmallerCompaneis(FJSCX)
20% – SGold(FSAGX)(13Jun16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – SMedicalEquipment&Systems(FSMEX)(31May16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – RealEstateInvestmentPortfolio(FRESX)(21Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
20% – Telecom&Utilities(FIUIX)(14Mar16) from CashReserves(FDRXX)
Jun16 1m+6% 3m+9% 6m+5% 12m-1% 24m+2% 36m+8% 60m+8% 120m+21%
May16 1m-1% 3m+4% 6m-3% 12m-9% 24m-3% 36m-0% 60m-2% 120m+13%
Average annual return since 1/82 11%