Not a good week, not a buy week. The sum of all the deviations has been 497, 347, and now 399 – not up 2 weeks in a row.
The number of funds I rate as a buy over the last 3 weeks has been 67, 05, and now 04.
In reviewing some of the market indicators:
SPY (S&P500 ETF) is 1% above its 50 day moving average,
QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF) is 0% above its 50 day moving average,
IWM (Russell 2000 ETF) is -1% above its 50 day moving average,
SPY and QQQ are above their 200 day moving average.
The sum of the deviations is positive.
Not a time to buy – Sum of all deviations is not up 2 weeks in a row.
Another rotten week where only defensive investments are moving up – utilities, bonds, and real estate. The same thing I said last week.
Gary Kaltbaum, who has a nightly radio/net/archived show at 6pm, claims without banks and semiconductors moving up, there is not a chance for a bull market. He indicates the up moves on Thursday and Friday was institutions buying when many stocks touched their 200 day moving average. PTNQ, Pacer Trendpilot 100 ETF, my favorite and only long term investment, automatically converts to treasury bills when the NASDAQ 100 falls below its 200 day moving average.
IRA#1
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.72, a sell price 10.26, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
IRA#2
SDefense&Aerospace has a price of 18.26 a sell price 17.78, a rank of 14, and is a hold. (ETF – ITA, XAR)
SSemiconductors has a price of 10.72, a sell price 10.55, a rank of 02, and is a hold. (ETF – XSD, SMH)
SConstructionandHousing has a price of 62.49, a sell price 59.54, a rank of 04, and is a hold. (ETF – ITB, PKB)
My investment changes this weekend:
IRA #1 – none
IRA #2 – none
My mutual fund portfolio market exposure after this weekend’s changes:
IRA #1 – 100% invested
IRA #2 – 60% invested
The top 20 (out of 100+ I follow) Fidelity funds (percent deviation, rank & weeks on top 20 list, fund symbol, fund price, fund name, and %dev increasing last 2 weeks).
%Dev Rnk SYMB Price Fund Name 2wk UP?
11.35 01-19 FSAGX 22.96 SGold NO
10.69 02-16 FSELX 10.72 SSemiconductors NO
10.60 03-03 FNBGX 15.18 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex YES
10.25 04-26 FSHOX 62.49 SConstructionandHousing NO
9.67 05-08 FSUTX 97.67 SUtilities NO
8.87 06-04 FRESX 47.08 RealEstateInvestment YES
8.66 07-08 FIUIX 29.05 Telecom&Utilities NO
8.13 08-08 FWRLX 10.39 SWireless NO
7.56 09-03 FSRNX 17.44 RealEstateIndex NO
6.64 10-33 FSPTX 17.67 STechnology NO
6.52 11-03 FCBFX 12.22 CorporateBond NO
6.45 12-05 FDCPX 75.45 SComputers NO
6.08 13-01 FRIFX 12.65 RealEstateIncome NO
5.61 14-09 FSDAX 18.26 SDefense&Aerospace NO
5.28 15-04 FSPCX 63.81 SInsurance NO
5.09 16-02 FLATX 26.51 LatinAmerica YES
4.99 17-01 FGOVX 10.68 GovernmentIncome NO
4.91 18-01 FHKCX 34.77 ChinaRegion NO
4.14 19-01 FFIDX 47.15 Fidelity NO
4.13 20-01 FBSOX 71.47 SITServices NO
Last Week
11.17 01-25 FSHOX 62.67 SConstructionandHousing NO
10.85 02-18 FSAGX 22.72 SGold NO
10.49 03-15 FSELX 10.64 SSemiconductors NO
10.19 04-07 FSUTX 97.63 SUtilities YES
8.95 05-07 FIUIX 29.28 Telecom&Utilities NO
8.73 06-03 FRESX 46.80 RealEstateInvestment YES
8.72 07-02 FNBGX 14.84 Long-TermTreasuryBondIndex YES
7.81 08-02 FSRNX 17.41 RealEstateIndex YES
7.77 09-08 FSDAX 18.58 SDefense&Aerospace NO
7.13 10-03 FSPCX 64.75 SInsurance NO
6.53 11-04 FDCPX 75.25 SComputers NO
6.08 12-04 FSAVX 34.13 SAutomotive NO
6.01 13-02 FCBFX 12.12 CorporateBond NO
5.87 14-07 FWRLX 10.13 SWireless NO
5.38 15-32 FSPTX 17.40 STechnology NO
5.29 16-03 FIDSX 10.46 SFinancialServices NO
5.28 17-01 FSRBX 26.34 SBanking NO
5.25 18-03 FGRIX 38.51 Growth&Income NO
4.90 19-01 FLATX 26.39 LatinAmerica NO
4.38 20-01 FSRPX 16.18 SRetailing NO
It will be some time before I get all of the % returns correct.
IRA#1 is currently invested in:
100% – SSemiconductors(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
Jul19 1m+2 3m+0% 6m+2% 12m-3% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%
IRA#2 is currently invested in:
20% – SConstructionandHousing(FSHOX)(16Sep19) from Cash(26Aug19)
20% – Cash(16Sep19) from SGold(FSAGX)(17Jun19))
20% – SSemiconductors(09Sep19) from Cash(19Aug19)
20% – Cash(26Aug10) from SITServices(FBSOX)(28Jan19)
20% – SDefense&Aerospace(FSDAX)(25Feb19) from Cash(24Sep18)
Jul19 1m+3% 3m+3% 6m-3% 12m-6% 24m+na% 36m+na% 60m+na% 120m+na%
Average annual return since 1/82 na%